tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14077392296481116812024-03-13T09:59:05.525-07:00The Outfield GrassA critical review of all things baseballJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-68533862314632636372012-06-04T19:22:00.004-07:002012-06-04T19:22:43.874-07:00Picks 25-31With the twenty-fifth pick, the Rays chose Richie Shaffer, a right-handed third baseman from Clemson University. Shaffer has fantastic power but questions exist about his contact ability. He's expected to move to first or a corner outfield spot as he's blocked by Longoria at third. Shaffer has a high upside and, if he can make the necessary contact while avoiding high strikeout numbers, could be an excellent addition for the Rays. He fits a need and could come quickly, plus he's a bargain this late.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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The Diamondbacks used the twenty-sixth pick on left-handed catcher Stryker Trahan from Acadiana High School in Louisiana. Many comps have suggested Brian McCann and that seems fitting, although he's probably a better defensive catcher now than McCann was at this point. Arizona recently extended Miguel Montero, so it's unclear whether they will move Trahan from behind the plate to start with him there with the flexibility to move him. Either way, the 6'1", 215-pound slugger should hit all the way through the minors and could be a relatively early contributor. I like this pick a lot, depending on where Trahan ends up defensively.<br />
Grade: A-<br />
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The Brewers chose right-handed catcher Clint Coulter from Union High School in Washington with the twenty-seventh overall pick. He's a power hitter all the way and could catch or play a corner outfield spot in the future. Coulter is a big kid with some strikeout concerns, but is a good athlete who has plenty of growth left in his game. Solid pick by the Brew Crew, albeit a little risky.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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With back to back first round picks, the Brewer used the twenty-eighth overall pick on Victor Roach, a right-handed outfield from Georgia Southern University. Despite a broken wrist in February, Roache managed to sneak into the first round. He was considered a top ten prior to the injury and if he gets healthy, could be a total steal. Roache possess excellent power and is an athletic player, although not an overwhelming one. He profiles as a left fielder and he's a value at this point in the draft, provided he gets back to form. Risky, but I like it.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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The Rangers chose Lewis Brinson with the twenty-ninth overall pick, a right-handed outfielder from Coral Springs High School. He's considered a Cameron Maybin clone with more pop. Brinson is a fantastic upside pick and his athleticism is very similar to Buxton's. He's a project, make no doubt about it, but they can afford to move him slowly. I think he can be a center fielder long term, adding to his value. Nice pick here despite the fact that it won't likely pay off for several years.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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Pick number thirty was used by the Yankees to select right-handed pitcher Ty Hensley from Santa Fe High School in Oklahoma. A great athlete, he's exactly what you're looking for in a pitcher at 6'4" and 220-pounds. His fastball and curveball are advanced and if he can develop a feel for the changeup, he could move quickly. This is a high-ceiling kid that the Yankees will either be able to hold onto for the future or trade for elite MLB talent as many teams would love to have this kid. Nice pick here for the Yankees.<br />
Grade: A-<br />
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With the last pick in the first round, the Boston Red Sox selected Brian Johnson, a left-handed pitcher from the University of Florida. A former Team USA player, he's struggled this year for the Gators, especially in the SEC. He has limited upside and only sits high 80's/low 90's with the fastball. His breaking stuff is excellent, however, and he has the stuff to be a big-league contributor, probably in the form of a back-end starter or lefty reliever. He's signable, but there were other options here that were much more compelling. A safe pick, but not an exciting one.<br />
Grade: CJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-13973765143709560932012-06-04T18:41:00.001-07:002012-06-04T18:41:24.071-07:00Picks 18-24The Cardinals selected right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha from Texas A&M University. Wacha's drop on the draft board is the Cardinals' gain. He's polished, has an ideal pitcher's frame (especially if he fills out a little) and knows how to pitch. His ceiling isn't the highest, but he could be a two or three starter for the Cardinals in just a matter of years. If Wacha develops effectiveness with the slider and/or curve, he could be excellent.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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With the twentieth pick overall, the Giants chose Chris Stratton, a right-handed pitcher from Mississippi State University. Another polished arm without the highest ceiling in the world, Stratton should be a contributor for the Giants sooner rather than later. He knows how to pitch and has a good feel for three pitches. He sits low-to-mid 90's with the fastball while also having feel for the breaking ball and off-speed stuff. Solid choice here for the Giants.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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The Braves used the twenty-first pick of the draft to select right-handed Lucas Sims from Brookwood High School in Georgia. With the pitching depth that the Braves have, I would have liked to have seen them select a position player. With that said, Sims could have a very high ceiling as a starter. His value really falls, in my opinion, if he gets moved to the bullpen. He'll have every chance to stick as a starter, though, and the Braves have been known to develop a prospect or two. Keep your eyes peeled on his progress.<br />
Grade: B-<br />
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The Blue Jays used their second first-round pick, twenty-second overall, to select right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman from Duke University. Stroman was falling fast, but is has the best stuff of any pitcher in this draft. There are suggestions that if he signs quickly, he could be a big league contributor this fall. Although he's only 5'9", Stroman possess great feel and has plenty of velocity to get big-league hitters out. This very well may be the steal of the draft. Fantastic pick at a great spot in the draft.<br />
Grade: A<br />
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With the twenty-third pick overall, and their second of the first round, the Cardinals chose , a left-handed outfielder James Ramsey from Florida State University. He had a huge senior year for the Seminoles and improved his draft stock big time. He is a leader on the field and a solid player all around, but no part of his game really jumps out at you. If he sticks in center field, his value increases big time. If not, you may have to move him to second base since his bat doesn't profile with the power needed to play at a corner position. The Cardinals just got a good baseball player, albeit not an elite prospect.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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Pick number twenty-four belonged to the Red Sox and they used it to select Devin Marrero, a right-handed shortstop from Arizona State University. I'm not sold on his bat in the least, but his glove is legit and he won't have to be an amazing hitter to have excellent value. The Red Sox are clearly not sold on their other high-profile shortstops in their organization, and while Marrero has a high defensive ceiling, he may not have much in the way of offense. Not a great pick, in my opinion, given the players in their system currently and Marrero's offensive question marks.<br />
Grade: C<br />
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<br />Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-30836008065248755012012-06-04T18:06:00.002-07:002012-06-04T18:06:55.962-07:00Picks 13-18The White Sox used the thirteenth overall pick on Courtney Hawkins, a right-handed outfielder from Carrol High School in Texas. A college arm was thought to go here, but Hawkins fell a little further than Chicago probably expected and the White Sox jumped at the opportunity. He has fantastic batt speed and arm strength while being a fantastic athlete at 6'2", 210. A future corner outfielder, he has a long ways to go but could be ready as soon as 2015.<br />
Grade: A-<br />
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With the fourteenth selection, the Reds selected Nirck Travieso, right-handed pitcher from Archbishop McCarthy High School in Florida. He's a full-bodied power pitcher that pitches aggressively. There are some questions of whether he is a future starter or reliever, but it's probably too early to tell right now. It's going to come down to how well he picks up the breaking ball and off-speed stuff. Honestly, I think the Reds were really trying to save money with this pick and left some polished college arms on the shelf with this pick.<br />
Grade: C+<br />
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The Indians used the fifteenth pick on left-handed outfielder Tyler Naquin from Texas A&M University. He's a very good athlete with a fantastic arm. Can he stick in centerfield? I'm not sure. His contact skills should carry him through the system while the power will be a question mark. I'm very surprised that college pitchers haven't been more heavily pursued, but position players continue to be a hot commodity.<br />
Grade: B-<br />
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The Nationals used the sixteenth selection of the draft on Lucas Giolito, a right-handed pitcher from Harvard-Westlake High School in California. He was considered a much higher pick before the season, but an elbow injury dropped him from a likely top three selection to a mid first-rounder. If he gets right, he could be the best player from this draft class. His stuff is that incredible. Comps are dangerous, but Verlander and Halladay are nice company. The real question is whether or not he returns from injury as the power pitcher he has been in the past. Boom or bust pick all the way.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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With the seventieth selection, the Blue Jays selected BJ Davis, outfielder from Stone High School in Mississippi. he very well may be the fastest player in the draft and is a definite center fielder. He has some pop considering his size, but his arm isn't spectacular. Davis has solid contact skills and definite defensive ability as he covers a lot of ground. Not my favorite pick, but it's what was expected of the Jays all along. Another risk/reward player.<br />
Grade: B-<br />
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Eighteenth overall, the Dodgers selected right-handed shortstop Corey Seager from Northwest Cabbarus High School in North Carolina. Likely a third baseman at the next level, he can hit to all fields already and his power has come along in his senior year. His brother Kyle is the starting third baseman for the Mariners right now, and Corey is considered much more physical with the potential to hit for more power than his impressive brother. This was a good pick for the Dodgers, although I would have loved to see them take a player like Michael Wacha here. <br />
Grade: BJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-51625663617695268822012-06-04T17:28:00.002-07:002012-06-04T17:28:34.600-07:00Picks 9-12The ninth pick belonged to the Marlins, who used it on Andrew Heaney, left-handed pitcher from Oklahoma State University. He's been the ace of the Cowboys for three years and simply knows how to pitch. He doesn't have the velocity of others in the draft, but should be able to come up quickly and contribute sooner rather than later. I don't see him as a front of the rotation guy, but he will be ready to slot in as the Marlins' a number three starter in short order.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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With the tenth pick, the Rockies selected left-handed outfielder David Dahl from Oak Mountain High School in Alabama. He's a big kid with good speed, a solid bat and good contact skills. If he can't stick in centerfield, he'll surely be able to make it work in right, but the bat profiles better in center. Another high risk/high reward pick that should be a fun player to track through the minors.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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The A's used their first pick, eleventh overall, to selected right-handed shortstop Addison Russel from Pace High School in Florida. There are questions of whether he can stick at short because of his weight, but he has the power bat that profiles at the hot corner. Russel is the first high schooler selected in the first round by the A's in the last five years, proving how much they like this kid. He has excellent pop and solid contact skills meaning that he should be a quick mover if he can keep the strikeouts down while moving through the Athletics' system. Risky pick, but high upside.<br />
Grade: B-<br />
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The twelfth pick was used by the Mets to select right-handed shortstop Gavin Ceccini from Barbe High School in Louisiana. I'm very high on this kid as he has the glove to stick at short long term. He is a great athlete with excellent speed and contact skills. Power is really the only knock on his game, but by sticking at short he won't be expected to hit bombs. This is a very good pick as the Mets are thin on this type of talent.<br />
Grade: A<br />
<br />Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-79522232894128186822012-06-04T17:02:00.001-07:002012-06-04T17:02:28.585-07:00Picks 4-8The Orioles, owner of the fourth overall pick, selected college right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman from Louisiana State University. Yes, Mark Appel is still on the board, probably due to signability issues. Gausman pitches with a solid downhill delivery and should be a solid big-league pitcher. I see him as more of a number two or three starter down the road and isn't my top choice to develop into an ace, but he's advanced and ready to contribute in the very near future.<br />
Grade: B-<br />
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With the fifth overall choice, the Royals have taken Kyle Zimmer, right-handed pitcher, from the University of San Francisco. Another pass on Appel, but Zimmer very well may be the best pitching prospect in the draft. He's not pitched for a long time, having committed to the Dons as a position player, but Kyle's picked it up quickly. He's got a fantastic pitcher's frame (6'2", 220) and has four polished pitches right now. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's with a chance to hit triple digits at times. The Royals got a very good one here.<br />
Grade: A<br />
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As expected, the Cubs took right-handed outfielder Albert Almora from Mater Academy of Florida in one of the worst-kept secrets of the draft. They have been enamored with the Florida prep all along and for good reason. He's expected to a 4 or 5-tool guy with a fantastic work ethic and solid leadership skills. He isn't as athletic as the other prep bats that have been drafted thus far, but he's no slouch either. He may or may not stick in centerfield long term, but I see him as a solid choice that should pay major league dividends.<br />
Grade: B<br />
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The Padres took Max Fried, left-handed pitcher from Harvard-Westlake High School with the seventh pick. The Mark Appel free-fall continues, but the Padres weren't likely a fit for him due to the cash needed to sign him. Fried sports both a solid fastball and curve, a la Hamels and Kershaw. I think he's quite a ways away yet, so San Diego will have to wait quite while to see this selection pay off. Best-case scenario, he's an ace for the Friars in three to four years. Worst-case scenario: he's a number three or four starter that is durable and productive in four to five years. Good, traditional pick for the Padres.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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The eighth pick of the draft belonged to the Pirates and they chose Mark Appel, right-handed pitcher from Stanford University. This is a surprise pick as the Pirates weren't thought to be willing to spend the cash to land the future ace. Adding Appel to Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole is brilliant as Mark was clearly the best player available. He's polished and ready to contribute. Cole and Appel could be Opening Day contributors in 2013, if not sooner while Taillon continues to develop positively. Great choice for a budding franchise.<br />
Grade: AJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-48403721108862308422012-06-04T16:34:00.001-07:002012-06-04T16:37:50.762-07:00Picks 1-3With the first overall pick, the Houston Astros selected Carlos Correa, right-handed shortstop from the from Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. Honestly, this choice shocked nearly everyone. The University of Miami commit was definitely in the discussion, but was more of a consideration to go top three, maybe top five. He very well may be the best player available and a few writers have suggested it, but most of us thought that Houston would take Mark Appel of Stanford. Correa is 6'4" and may not stick at shortstop, but he is expected to be able to slide over to third without a hitch and be a potential Gold Glove fielder there. He's incredibly athletic and should be a project well worth undertaking for Houston.<br />
Grade: B+<br />
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Next up, the Twins selected right-handed outfielder Byron Buxton. That's no shock. He can do it all, is incredibly athletic and scouts think his power will develop. He's an upside kid who was projected to the Twins all along and many people thought he could potentially go number 1. I feel like he's a bit risky, but his ceiling is extremely high. Young guys with his type of height and length make me a bit nervous because their swings can get a little long (Jason Heyward). Defensively, he' is a dead-ringer in centerfield and his progress will be fun to watch as he moves through the Minnesota system.<br />
Grade: A<br />
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With the third pick, the Mariners chose right-handed catcher Mike Zunino from the University of Florida. He's a good fit for the club as Jesus Montero won't be an everyday catcher, plus he's pretty far along in terms of development. Zunino is a great defensive catcher in the making, but his bat isn't as up to speed as his glove. That said, he should hit for power at a premium position on the diamond. The Mariners didn't really have any other direction to go when Buxton went to the Twins, so I think this was the right choice for them.<br />
Grade: B+Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-61130597472871445782012-06-04T15:59:00.003-07:002012-06-04T15:59:49.985-07:00Draft UpdatesIn case you're not watching, the MLB Draft is on MLB Network right now and about to kick off. I'll give you my thoughts and feelings on each pick as it progresses. For review, the Astros, Twins, Mariners, Orioles and Royals have the first five picks. Here we go!Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-5220850288479695582012-05-14T07:02:00.000-07:002012-05-14T07:02:42.692-07:00Texas on Top<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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The Rangers are the best team in baseball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s really little doubt about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At this point, in this season, I think
they’ve made it pretty obvious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
just put a public beatdown on the Angels during Sunday Night Baseball on
ESPN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you don’t recall, the Angels
were supposed to challenge the Rangers for the AL West but that doesn’t appear
to be happening any time soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have
the second best record in baseball (to the Dodgers) and are an impressive 13-6
on the road thus far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ve truly got
it all: pitching, hitting and defense.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When lefty CJ Wilson left Texas for division-rival Los Angeles in
free agency, most of us saw the Rangers as taking a pretty big hit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>John Daniels responded by rolling the dice on
Yu Darvish, the 25 year-old phenom from Japan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Japanese players have been<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>volatile in Major League Baseball, but it appears the Darvish gamble has
paid dividends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s jumped right into
the rotation, gone 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA (3.59 xFIP) and over 10 K/9.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Derek Holland, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison
have all been reliable starters, too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Holland is the ace of the staff and is continuing to mature while
Harrison has had some tough outings and bad luck (5.23 ERA vs. 3.73 xFIP).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neftali Feliz has been erratic but
effective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he doesn’t get it
together, though, his 3.38 ERA won’t last.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s not just the rotation, though.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Texas’ bullpen has sparkled behind closer Joe
Nathan (another gamble that’s paid off), setup men Mike Adams (last season’s
bounty from a trade with the Padres) and Alexi Ogando.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mark Lowe, Koji Uehara and Robbie Ross have
been just as good in middle relief.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
bullpen is deep on quality arms, to say the least.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the plate, the Rangers can mash with the best of
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, they are the best of them so far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They lead baseball in runs
scored (194), RBI (188), hits (353) and average (.291), are second in on-base
percentage (.349), are third in homeruns with 52 (behind the Orioles and
Yankees) and rank seventh in strikeout rate (17.6 %).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The team has been somewhat lucky with a .322
BABIP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This tells us that they will have
some slightly tougher luck going forward, but with their ability to hit the
ball over the fence with regularity and leg out some hits (Andrus, Kinsler,
Gentry), they won’t plummet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They posted
a .304 BABIP last season and a .307 in 2010, so they are consistently among the
leaders of baseball in this category.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When you swing the bats like they do, hits have a way of happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just ask Jered Weaver, who came off a
no-hitter to throw 3.1 innings tonight, giving up 8 earned on 10 hits (he only walked
one, so the Rangers swung their way to that snowman).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Josh Hamilton is playing out of his mind right now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has 18 homeruns and 41 RBI (leads baseball
in each category) in only 31 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of
course that’s not sustainable, but it’s not as if he’s exactly going to
disappear and hit .180 the rest of the way through the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This guy can hang in there and bang all
season long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Elvis Andrus and Ian
Kinsler have been awesome table-setters with a .391 and .352 OBP,
respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adrian Beltre continues to
hit the ball hard and Michael young continues to be Michael Young.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mike Napoli had one hot stretch but has
cooled off and Nelson Cruz really hasn’t got it going yet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those two are strikeout machines (Cruz has a
24.7 K% and Napoli’s is 29.2%) but are always a threat to go yard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Craig Gentry has been good in his spot starts
and as a defensive replacement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
are really no weaknesses here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>David
Murphy is available off the bench and can contribute, too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Opposing pitchers cringe when these guys come
to town.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
UZR loves the Rangers in the field, too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have the highest UZR rating thus far
and, although there are some serious questions of sample size, the eye test
proves that they play good defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Beltre is a Gold Glove third baseman, Andrus at short is really
blossoming, has plus range and a good arm while Kinsler is above average at
second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mitch Moreland isn’t the most
potent first baseman at the plate but can pick it defensively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Murphy and Gentry can run down anything in
the outfield, Cruz is a sold right fielder and Hamilton has been much better
since moving to left field full time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of
the starters, only Mike Napoli rates as below average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Michael Young can play all over as a super
sub when he isn’t DH’ing, which offers nice flexibility, but he isn’t a great
fielder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Overall, they play solid
infield defense, being strongest at short, third and first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the outfield, they have two above-average
centerfielders who can run ‘em down, while the corner outfielders are also plus
defenders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The one thing that can slow these guys down is the injury
bug.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hamilton in particular is a real
concern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s missed large chunks of the
last three seasons, missing 73 games in ’09, 29 games in 2010 and 41 games last
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moving him to left field will help
keep him on the field longer, but it’s almost a “when” instead of “if” with
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beltre has been solid throughout
his career but missed some time last year and in ’09, plus he’s 32.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kinsler has been dinged up from time to time
and Nelson Cruz has a pretty robust injury history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The starting pitching looks young and solid
(Feliz is the only worry), but the bullpen has some injury concerns, namely Joe
Nathan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he can stay healthy, they
have enough depth to weather any other storms.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Even if injuries do bite this team, as they certainly will,
the Rangers can put their top-rated farm system to use in an attempt to plug
holes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the consensus minor league
system in baseball, Texas is built for the present and the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they don’t have an internal solution to
fit their needs, they have plenty of pieces to flip for available big league
talent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This club will be tough to stop as they are solid in all
three aspects of the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can
pitch well and close down games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
can hang up crooked numbers in any inning of any game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the outfield they can cover ground and the
infield is full of talented fielders, too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The top-rated farm system in baseball puts this team at the top into the foreseeable future, as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Simply said, the
Rangers are the best team in baseball. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-78222315292304418172012-05-11T13:37:00.001-07:002012-05-11T13:38:16.767-07:00AL Grades Reviewed<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Last week I posted a review of my preseason divisional
rankings. We’re over 30 games in now and
some trends are starting to appear.
Sample size problems still can skew things somewhat, but when you reason
and look at underlying factors, some conclusions can be drawn. Now, let’s see how I did picking these
division standings, shall we?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
AL East Preseason Prediction<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tampa Bay Rays<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Boston Red Sox<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
New York Yankees <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Toronto Blue Jays <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Baltimore Orioles <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Current AL East Standings <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Baltimore Orioles<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tampa Bay Rays <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Toronto Blue Jays (2.0)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
New York Yankees (2.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Boston Red Sox (7.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, I certainly didn’t expect to see the O’s atop the
standings in mid May, and neither did anyone else. Can they stay there? I think we all know the answer to that
question. They’ve gotten off to quick
starts before but they simply don’t have what it takes to hang for 162 games in
this division. The Rays are even with
the O’s currently and have been playing really good baseball, despite Longoria
being on the shelf. The starting
pitching has been fantastic for Tampa Bay and that should continue. The one thing they could use is bullpen
depth. New York is playing well, too,
and Jeter is out of his mind right now.
He just became the fastest Yankee player to 50 hits in a season in
history, despite the fact that he’s getting pretty old. We all know about Rivera, so the bullpen is
something to watch. Toronto can slug but
can they do anything else? Starting
pitching is a relative strength, but it’s nothing that’s going to carry them to
the playoffs. I missed on my Boston
prediction, but I did throw out a ton of caution with them, mostly on
injuries. And, sure enough, they’ve been
incredibly bitten by the injury bug.
Starting pitching is a problem for them as is their bullpen and
outfield. Will Middlebrooks is the lone
bright spot.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I still like the Rays to win this division. New York should challenge them all year long
and the Red Sox will likely put a little mid-summer run together but I expect
it to be too little too late. The grind
of the season should put Toronto and Baltimore where they belong eventually.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My Prediction Grade: C+<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Preseason AL Central Prediction<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Detroit Tigers<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cleveland Indians<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kansas City Royals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Minnesota Twins<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Chicago White Sox<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Current AL Central Standings<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cleveland Indians<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Detroit Tigers (2.0)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Chicago White Sox (3.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kansas City Royals (6.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Minnesota Twins (10.0)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cleveland has been surprisingly solid so far. They’re a scrappy bunch of ball players. Starting pitching is a little problematic,
which I expect to catch up with them, but their bullpen is decent, especially
with Chris Perez starting to iron things out.
Detroit isn’t mashing quite as much as expected, but I think that will
pick up once things heat up. Make no
doubt about it, they can still rake, but I don’t think we’ve seen them at full
mojo yet. Their starting pitching has
been very good, especially with the successful addition of Drew Smyly. The bullpen is another matter: ugly. Chicago has been a surprise, with Jake Peavy
and Adam Dunn have huge bounce-back campaigns, right about the time most of us
had written them off. Despite some
bullpen uncertainties, they have a chance to hang in there for a while. Kansas City has been up and down thus
far. Hosmer and Moustakas haven’t
carried the team as much as expected and their starting pitching has been hit
or miss. Minnesota has been terrible and
should likely stay that way. Ron
Gardenhire is starting to feel his seat get warm, but really that team is just
somewhat devoid of talent.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Detroit can iron out it’s bullpen woes, especially if
they can acquire someone to stabilize things, they should catch the Indians no
problem. Cleveland is capable of keeping
it close, though. I don’t think Chicago
is a serious contender, Kansas City doesn’t have what it will take to win the
division and Minnesota severely under-gunned.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My Prediction Grade: A-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Preseason AL West Predictions<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Texas Rangers<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Los Angeles Angels<o:p></o:p></div>
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Seattle Mariners<o:p></o:p></div>
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Oakland Athletics<o:p></o:p></div>
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Current AL West Standings<o:p></o:p></div>
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Texas Rangers<o:p></o:p></div>
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Oakland Athletics (5.0)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Seattle Mariners (6.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Los Angeles Angels (7.5)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s face it, the Rangers just may be the best team in
baseball. The big gamble on Yu Darvish
appears to have paid off and we already knew they had one of the best in the
game with Josh Hamilton. A strong cast
surrounds him and the Rangers have more than enough pitching to stay in
front. Oakland has been surprising,
riding strong starting pitching and bullpen performances to a .500 record. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone are legit big
league pitchers. The offense is hit or
miss (mostly miss) but Cespedes is adjusting fairly well to American ball. Seattle is incredibly inconsistent. They’ve struggled to score at times, then
will hang an occasional 7 or 8-spot.
King Felix and Jason Vargas are the only reliable starters while
youngsters Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Mike Carp and Dustin Ackley are starting
to thrive at the plate. Los Angeles has
been a total surprise letdown. Pujols’
struggles have been well documented, but the rest of the team hasn’t been
stunning either. Many players are off to
slow starts and the franchise appears to continues to be plagued by the Vernon
Wells trade. Starting pitching has been
a relative strength, but the bullpen is troubled, led by Jordan Walden’s
sturggles and both Scot Downs’ and LaTroy Hawkins’ injuries. They should pick it up, but they’ll have a
long ways to go to catch the Rangers.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Texas should run away with this thing. Unless severe injuries cause trouble, they
look like the head of the class. With
their deep farm system, they can sustain trouble and make it through. I like Los Angeles to pour it on here soon
and easily surpass Oakland and Seattle by mid-summer. The battle for not-last should be a tight one
between the A’s and M’s. <o:p></o:p></div>
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My Prediction Grade: A<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-1895292983801433982012-05-03T17:29:00.001-07:002012-05-03T17:29:28.753-07:00NL Grades Reviewed<br />
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If you've been with me here for a while, you'll remember the division-by-division season previews that went up about a month and a half ago. I graded each team's lineup, rotation and bullpen, then predicted their finish in the division. I thought now would be an appropriate time to go back an review those grades, given that we're over a month into the season. Working east to west, let's see how things are shaking out.</div>
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NL East Pre-Season Prediction</div>
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1. Philadelphia Phillies</div>
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2. Washington Nationals</div>
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3. Miami Marlins</div>
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4. Atlanta Braves</div>
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5. New York Mets</div>
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NL East Current Standings</div>
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1. Washington Nationals</div>
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2. Atlanta Braves (1.0)</div>
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3. New York Mets (2.5)</div>
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4. Philadelphia Phillies (3.0)</div>
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5. Miami Marlins (4.5)</div>
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As you can tell, this race is still very close. The Nats have been carried by uncharacteristically good pitching thus far, which I expect will regress some. Bryce Harper has energized the offense, however, and they should continue to score runs, especially when they get Zimmerman and Morse back. I'm surprised that Atlanta has done so well, but they're scoring runs right now and the pitching has been pretty good, as expected. The Mets are a total surprise and I don't see them continuing this pace in the least. Philadelphia is using their rotation to stay at .500 as the offense has been well below average. Ryan Howard is inching closer to a return but Utley appears a long ways off still. I'm not sure they'll be able to catch the Nats if they don't start making up ground in a hurry. The Marlins are far from out of it, but they've really disappointed. Heath Bell has struggled (as predicted), Stanton has shown no pop and Hanley is scuffling once again. Their offense has been terrible thus far, plain and simple. </div>
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I still like the Phils, Nats and Braves to fight it out, but I may have been too generous with the Marlins. If they don't come around soon, they will have a long summer ahead of them. Let the Mets' free fall begin in 5, 4, 3, 2…</div>
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My Prediction Grade: B-</div>
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NL Central Pre-Season Prediction</div>
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1. St. Louis Cardinals</div>
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2. Cincinnati Reds</div>
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3. Milwaukee Brewers</div>
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4. Pittsburgh Pirates</div>
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5. Chicago Cubs</div>
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6. Houston Astros</div>
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NL Central Current Standings</div>
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1. St. Louis Cardinals</div>
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2. Cincinnati Reds (3.5)</div>
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3. Houston Astros (5.0)</div>
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4. Milwaukee Brewers (5.0)</div>
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5. Pittsburgh Pirates (5.0)</div>
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6. Chicago Cubs (7.0)</div>
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The Cards have opened up a decent gap on the rest of the division. Molina's earning his new deal while Beltran, Freese, Jay, and Furcal help power the offense. Once Holliday turns on, look out. The rotation has been solid. Lance Lynn has been a revelation, Jaime Garcia is solid as ever and Jake Westbrook continues to get it done. Cincinnati is trying to keep up the pace, but at .500, they'd better pick it up. Despite Ryan Madson going down before the season, the bullpen has been the bright spot as the rotation is mediocre at best. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and rookie shortstop Zack Cozart are waiting to get some help as Hanigan, Ludwick and Phillips are all off to slow starts. Houston, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are log-jammed at 11-14. I'll stick by my pick with Milwaukee eventually emerging, but they've already dug themselves a hole. The Astros and Pirates are scrappy, though, and won't go down without a fight. Neither team will make the playoffs, but they'll find comfort in stealing victories from division opponents. Chicago is struggling, as expected. The pitching is decent but the offense is really poor.</div>
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If the Cardinals stay hot, they could run away with this thing. The Reds will have a hard time catching them unless the starting pitching gets better in a hurry. Look for them to potentially make a deal for an additional starter sooner rather than later. The rest of the pack is falling behind fast. A big May is needed if they want to stay close.</div>
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My Prediction Grade: A-</div>
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NL West Pre-Season Prediction</div>
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1. Arizona Diamondbacks</div>
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2. San Francisco Giants</div>
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3. Colorado Rockies</div>
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4. Los Angeles Doders</div>
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5. San Diego Padres</div>
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NL West Current Standings</div>
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers</div>
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2. Arizona Diamondbacks (4.0)</div>
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3. Colorado Rockies (4.5)</div>
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4. San Francisco Giants (5.0)</div>
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5. San Diego Padres (8.5)</div>
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Chavez Ravine has been raucous thus far. The white-hot Dodgers are tied for the best record in all of baseball. How? Matt Kemp has a triple-slash of .411/.500/.856 with 12 dingers through 25 games. Journeyman catcher AJ Ellis is mashing, to everyone's surprise, and Andre Eithier has clearly bounced back in his contract year. Can they sustain it? I don't think so since Kemp can't keep this up and he's getting little help outside of Ellis and Eithier. The pitching is going to fall back to earth eventually, too. Most of the team's ERA's are deflated when compared to their xFIP's. The Diamondbacks have been solid and have mitigated injuries to Chris Young and Justin Upton while also surviving a slow start from Jason Kubel. They're a balanced offense that should continue to score runs, plus they have a deep bench. The starters are solid and exchanging Josh Collmenter for Patrick Corbin appears to be a good move. Skaggs and Bauer loom if there are any more issues. JJ Putz is back on the DL, but Bryan Shaw is filling in adequately with the help of a deep 'pen. The Rockies and Giants aren't as enticing. Colorado continues to struggle to pitch while the offense hasn't been all that impressive either, outside of a few performances by CarGo. The Giants are pitching well, but not as much as expected. Lincecum's struggles have been well-documented and the offense is trying to iron out a logjam at 1st base. Aubrey Huff has been terrible while Brett Pill has filled in pretty well. Of course, Brandon Belt is there, too, so there's much to be desired in terms of fitting the puzzle pieces in the optimal positions. Pablo Sandoval is out for 8 weeks with a broken hamate bone, so that's another negative for a team that is scoring runs at a below-average rate. San Diego has a poor offense and worse pitching staff. They'll be in the cellar all year.</div>
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I like the Diamondbacks to catch the Dodgers. Los Angeles is a statistical nightmare, as all indicators show that they've been extremely luck and their success hinges on one player. I'll still take the Giants over the Rox in the long run, but that's really anyone's guess. Pitching wins out in that battle, I suppose.</div>
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My Prediction Grade: B</div>
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<br /></div>Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-27623088934041217462012-04-21T20:07:00.000-07:002012-04-21T20:07:24.118-07:00Perfection<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Having witnessed perfection this afternoon in Seattle, I
have to say that Phillip Humber’s perfect game is still running through my
mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My work responsibilities have grown
temporarily; therefore today’s game was my first live Mariners game of the
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What a way to start!<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Keeping score at games is something I like to do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know it’s old school, I know you can get
digitized box scores and real-time updates, but keeping score with a pencil and
paper just has a special way of keeping the audience engaged in the
action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Through four innings, I
realized that Humber wasn’t just tossing a no-hitter, but a perfect game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A lot of pitchers have thrown four perfect
innings in history, so I wasn’t overly anxious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The odds were still clearly against Humber remaining perfect and I
expected reality to set in at any moment.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The one thing that kept me wondering if he could pull it
off, though, especially after he finished the sixth, is just how he was doing it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Humber wasn’t getting lucky, he wasn’t
getting crazy called strikes by the umpire and his fielders weren't making incredible plays that
were saving his bacon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, he was
dominating.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking at the Pitch FX Data
over at Brooks Baseball, you can see that he threw 67 of his 95 pitches for
strikes (70%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was especially deadly with
his breaking stuff.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The linear weights
(effectiveness) of his slider and curveball were -2.56 and -2.41,
respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These are very impressive
numbers and went along well with his above-average fastball (-1.87), which
averaged 91.5mph but topped out at 94.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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A quick look at the scorecard revealed corresponding
results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were plenty of swings and
misses, especially on the curveball, which batters whiffed on 24% of the time
he threw it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what is really
impressive is just how many times Mariners batters looked baffled and hit weak
pop-ups or ground-outs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only a handful
of balls were stung all day, two to the outfield and one on the infield.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otherwise, the Mariners went quietly as they failed to get squared-up on Humber's offerings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of these outs came early in the count,
too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has two culprits: 1) the
Mariners aren’t exactly the most patient team in baseball (last in walks) and 2)
they knew Humber was pounding the zone so they couldn’t afford to let many
pitches go by.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, a large number
of the balls he threw were the product of him already being ahead in the count
0-2 or 1-2 and attempting to get the batter to strike himself out, which happened
nine times today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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When the seventh began, things started to get serious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Casual fans and families at the park who were there to enjoy
the sunshine began to catch on to what was happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the eighth, fans started to cheer quietly
for Humber, against the hometown team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the ninth, the crowd roared when Brendan Ryan struck out, much to his
chagrin, to end the game and preserve the perfect performance by Phillip
Humber.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone had been standing for
the past three at-bats and no one left when the game ended but instead
applauded the effort of the White Sox hurler.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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History is history, and sure it hurts when it comes against
your team, but to witness something that spectacular is awesome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s something I’ll surely never forget and
neither will Humber.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been a
lot of baseball games played in MLB history (over 380,000) and only 21 perfect games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People will ask, “Who’s Phil Humber?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may not be a household name, but his stuff
was nasty, his approach was aggressive, consistent and Seattle simply had no
answer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A tip of the cap is in order to
Mr. Humber.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well done, sir, and thank
you for the experience.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-51422916140345163952012-04-03T20:19:00.000-07:002012-04-03T20:19:39.837-07:00Down Goes BaileyNot to go all "I told you so" on folks, but who didn't see Andrew Bailey getting hurt from 500 miles away? In case you haven't heard, the Red Sox' recently acquired closer is out for 4-5 months after having surgery on his injured thumb. In a division that is so competitive, the Sox really couldn't afford to suffer this kind of blow. They let Jonathan Paplebon walk in free agency and got Bailey from the A's in a trade. That decision is looking like a poor one. <br />
<br />
Bailey is no stranger to the DL. After winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2009, he's struggled to stay on the mound with consistency. He racked up 83 innings in his first season, but pitched just 49 innings in 2010 and only 41 last year. Andrew's maintained his effectiveness when he's pitched, so its not as if he's a diminished player talent-wise, it's just that he isn't someone who can be counted on to close a season's worth of games. Unfortunately, he will only be available for about half the season, similar to his performance the last two years.<br />
<br />
How do the Red Sox respond? They made nice move to protect from this sort of thing when they traded for Mark Melancon of the Astros. He'll help solidify the situation as I expect him to move from the setup role to closer. Daniel Bard is the key question. He's transitioned from highly effective setup man to starter. Boston thought they had an abundance of high-leverage relievers, making it possible to make Bard a starter. I would suspect that they'll try to keep him there, but if the bullpen should struggle, moving him back to the 'pen is something I can see happening. This will put extra pressure on Alfredo Aceves, Michael Bowden and Franklin Morales. <br />
<br />
How the team and these players adjust to their new roles will have a lot to say about how this division shakes out. Can Boston really contend with a bullpen that is so suspect in a division with the fire power of the AL East? The answer is yes, but their margin for error just got much thinner.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-80160535666886158182012-04-03T19:50:00.000-07:002012-04-03T19:50:37.112-07:00AL West Report Card<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
AL West<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The more things change, the more they stay the same.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This particular division is a fantastic
example of that saying, given that there has been some change indeed, yet the
pecking order is still clearly divided among familiar lines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oakland and Seattle will be looking up at Los
Angeles and Texas from the bottom of the standings once again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, Jesus Montero and
Yoenis Cespedes prove that while the standings may not move around too much,
there’s plenty to get excited about out west.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Los Angeles Angels<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lineup: B+<o:p></o:p></div>
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Rotation: A<o:p></o:p></div>
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Bullpen: B<o:p></o:p></div>
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Notes: This lineup got a lot sexier when Mr. Pujols came to
town.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not often that the best
player in the game is a free agent, but the Angels paid dearly to land
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few talented hitters in Kendrick,
Morales (finally appears healthy), Aybar and Torii Hunter surround Albert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wells and Callaspo are less interesting
pieces while the team tries to trade Bobby Abreu and find somewhere to play
Mark Trumbo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A question to ponder: when
will we see Mike Trout?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rotation may
be the best in baseball, posting a four-headed monster in Jered Weaver, Danny
Haren, Ervin Santana and CJ Wilson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
5<sup>th</sup> spot is still up in the air, but won’t matter much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jordan Walden begins his sophomore campaign
as the closer and will get help from a string of veterans in Downs, Hawkins and
Isringhausen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That squad should be
effective if healthy, but their age/durability concerns me a little bit.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Oakland Athletics<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lineup: C-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rotation: C+<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bullpen: B<o:p></o:p></div>
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Notes: The A’s are what they are: a cobbled together group
of veterans (Crisp, Pennington, Suzuki), replacement-level players with
potential to be better (Smith, Reddick), and prospects getting their feet wet
(Weeks, Allen, Sogard).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only player
who doesn’t fit these categories is the team’s lone big offseason purchase:
Yoenis Cespedes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s had a good spring
and nice opening series against the Mariners in Japan, so things are looking up
in that regard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No matter what, this
team will struggle to score all season long, no doubt about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the mound, the rotation is functional but
completely unimpressive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The results may
not be terrible, but no one is going to be excited to see McCarthy, Colon, Ross
Milone and Braden take the hill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jarrod
Parker and Brad Peacock are a different story, so we’ll be waiting to see these
youngsters get their feet we when they get called up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I see the bullpen as an underrated
group.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Balfour, Fuentes and Blevins are
strong vets while De Los Santos, Carigan and Cook are youngsters with high
upside.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Seattle Mariners<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lineup: C-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rotation: C+<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bullpen: C<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Notes: My hometown M’s are going to stink it up on offense
again this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only Ackley, Suzuki and
Montero are worth watching at this point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Smoak, Seager, Carp and Saunders offer hope, but little in terms of
proven production.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The sooner Chone
Figgins is out of the equation, the better off the team will be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Expect this group to be painful to watch at
times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Felix Hernandez isn’t getting
much help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vargas is hit-and-miss, while
Noesi, Beavan and Millwood are all replacement-level innings-eaters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keep an eye on Erasmo Ramirez, as he could be
moved to the rotation if anyone struggles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Don’t be shocked to see James Paxton and possibly Danny Hultzen get a
cup of coffee come September.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
bullpen is average at best.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>League gets
the ninth inning duties while Shawn Kelley and Tom Wilhelmsen will try to
stabilize the 7<sup>th</sup> and 8<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s going to be a long season in the Pacific
Northwest... again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Texas Rangers<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lineup: A<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rotation: B+<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bullpen: A-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Notes: This team will mash, plain and simple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kinsler and Andrus at the top of the order
will set the table for Hamilton, Beltre, Young, Cruz and Napoli.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That sounds like a fantasy team, not a real
one!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Add to the fact that they play in
an extreme hitter’s park in Arlington and you have a recipe for success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only concern could be health, as
Hamilton, Kinsler, Beltre, Young and Napoli have never been strangers to the
DL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While it isn’t as sexy a rotation as
the Angles’, Texas has a nice crop of starters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Lewis, Holland and Harrison are all proven big leaguers capable of
getting the job done well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yu Darvish
has looked good since arriving from Japan and could be a star while former
closer Neftali Feliz has transitioned to the rotation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bullpen is very solid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Joe Nathan takes over the 9<sup>th</sup> and,
if he can stay healthy, should adequately replace Feliz.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara are
excellent options at the back end, too.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Predicted Finish<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Texas Rangers<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Los Angeles Angels<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Seattle Mariners<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Oakland Athletics<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This division should really be divided into two distinct
races: the one for the top and the one for avoiding the bottom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I like the Rangers to slightly edge the
Angels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Texas is a little more talented
top-to-bottom, plus I think they have the better bullpen and I see these two
playing a lot of close games against one another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Health could have a lot to say about how this
shakes out, as neither team can afford to see a star player miss a big chunk of
the season and expect to stay on top.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Don’t count the Angels out by any means, I’m just betting on the
Rangers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a total stinkfest, I have
the Mariners taking third over the A’s by the slimmest of margins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
don’t know, I suppose I don’t want to watch them finish last again. If
anything, I think Seattle has a little more talent in terms of prospects and
that could be the difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<!--EndFragment-->Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-36358648339813967002012-04-01T10:00:00.000-07:002012-04-01T10:15:25.003-07:00AL Central Report CardAL CENTRAL<br />
<br />
Things have certainly changed in this division. The once powerful White Sox and Twins appear to be rebuilding, the Indians and Royals are vastly improved while the Tigers have gotten even tougher. Don’t base your expectations on what you used to know about the AL Central, as this is a new animal.<br />
<br />
Chicago White Sox<br />
Lineup: C-<br />
Rotation: C<br />
Bullpen: B+<br />
Notes: This lineup only boasts one proven, above-average hitter, that being an aging Paul Konerko. AJ Pierzynski, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn aren’t what they used to be by any means, although they have the potential to channel their former selves. De Aza will leadoff, which could be interesting, but there’s little else to get excited about at the plate. Danks and Floyd are good starters, but Peavy can’t stay healthy to save his life, Humber is up and down and Chris Sale has limited experience (but at least he offers upside). The bullpen could be strong with three quality arms at the back end. Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain and Addison Reed are very nice. Ohman and Bruney are quality veterans to go along with prospects Santiago and Axelrod.<br />
<br />
Cleveland Indians<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: B<br />
Notes: The Indians boast a solid lineup. While only Carlos Santana can be described as stellar, Cabrera and Choo are excellent, Hafner and Kotchman are solid while Kipnis and Brantley will surprise people. They should score a lot of runs this season as they have no “automatic outs.” The rotation is interesting. Masterson is solid, but there are some question marks behind him. Ubaldo Jimenez needs to get back to form, as does Derek Lowe. Josh Tomlin is effective while Jeanmar Gomez is an unproven youngster. The bullpen should be solid, despite a lingering injury to Chris Perez. Vinnie Pestano was quietly awesome in 2011, while Tony Sipp and Joe Smith are very reliable. Veteran Dan Wheeler adds to the quality depth.
<br />
<br />
Detroit Tigers<br />
Lineup: A<br />
Rotation: A<br />
Bullpen: B+<br />
Notes: Wow, if this were a real report card, the Tigers would be an honor student. Even without Victor Martinez, the Tigers lineup will be outstanding. Jackson and Boesch will thrive in front of Cabrera and Fielder. Delmon Young, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta will continue to drive runners in. Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and Porcello make up an awesome 1-4, while high-ranking prospect Andrew Oliver should win the 5th starter job. The bullpen is good, too. Despite Valverde being overrated, Benoit, Dotel and Coke are all very good. This team can do it all.<br />
<br />
Kansas City Royals<br />
Lineup: C+<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: The Royals’ lineup is a risk/reward bunch. Alex Gordon is coming off his first truly good season, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas look promising but don’t have a big body of work yet and Jeff Francouer needs to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. We know Billy Butler can hit and that Alcides Escobar can’t, but there isn’t much else to bank on. If all goes well, they can score a lot of runs. If it doesn’t, they will be in big trouble. Hochevar, Sanchez and Paulino are good starters, Bruce Chen is surprisingly solid and Danny Duffy is your typical 5th starter. Losing Joakim Soria for the year with Tommy John surgery hurts the bullpen. Jonathon Broxton will get the first crack at closing games, but if anything goes awry, look for talented youngster Greg Holland to get a chance. Effective righty Aaron Crow appears to be moving back to the bullpen after an experiment to get him in the rotation.<br />
<br />
Minnesota Twins<br />
Lineup: C-<br />
Rotation: C<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: What was once a perennial contender, the Twins are a shell of their former selves. The fact that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can’t stay on the field has a lot to do with it. Denard Span seems to have stalled out in his development while Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel walked in free agency. Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit will try to replace them. Ben Revere and Danny Valencia need to progress as hitters to help this team be successful. Carl Pavano is a terrible “ace” and Francisco Liriano seems to have lost “it.” Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis are all fill-the-rotation types that are serviceable but uninspiring. Matt Capps is a marginal closer and is probably the second best reliever on the staff, behind setup man Glen Perkins. Burnett, Duensing and Swarzak fill the ‘pen out.
<br />
<br />
Prediction<br />
1. Detroit Tigers<br />
2. Cleveland Indians<br />
3. Kansas City Royals<br />
4. Minnesota Twins<br />
5. Chicago White Sox<br />
<br />
No other team has the top-to-bottom talent to beat a relatively healthy Detroit ball club, so I see this as a clear race for second place. The Indians should score enough runs to get the job done. Kansas City is an intriguing team. They could be surprising in 2012 if the youngsters pan out and the pitching holds up, especially the bullpen. If the Tigers stumble, these teams, the Indians and Royals, have the ability to catch them. Minnesota is a mess, they can’t stay healthy and they are mostly a squad of average players (outside of a healthy Joe Mauer, a healthy Justin Morneau and an effective Francisco Liriano). The White Sox are in full-on rebuilding mode, so don’t be surprised to see them try to deal who they can at the deadline for prospects. The problem, most other teams don’t want their broken down, overpriced parts. That situation is in total disarray.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-6497652079019491002012-03-25T06:47:00.000-07:002012-03-25T06:47:21.702-07:00AL East Report CardTime to switch over to the other half of baseball. You know, the older, slower, hit-the-ball-over-the-fence-or-bust half. Known as the American League, my grades will start from the east coast and move to the Pacific once again. That means I get to start with the AL East which, even if you hate the whole Yankees-Sox thing, is a very entertaining division. Lots of marquee players, lots of former marquee players and even some up-and-comers. Here we go!<br />
<br />
Baltimore Orioles<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: D<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: The lineup isn’t all that bad. JJ Hardy is a slugger, Markakis is a balanced hitter, Adam Jones is a terrific athlete who has continuously improved and Matt Wieters is really coming around. The rest of the hitters are functional and the O’s will definitely score some runs. The wheels will fall off on the mound, however. Japanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen is the “ace,” while Jason Hammel, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Tsuyoshi Wada round things out. Matusz and Arrieta are former top prospects that haven’t panned out. Jim Johnson takes over as the closer. Lindstrom, Gregg and Luis Ayala are all functional, but not outstanding by any means.<br />
<br />
Boston Red Sox<br />
Lineup: A<br />
Rotation: B+<br />
Bullpen: C+<br />
Notes: The lineup is as potent as any. Ellsbury is coming off a career year, Pedroia is incredible, Adrian Gonzalez is a stud, Youkillis is aging but still very good. The same could be said for Big Papi, resulting in a solid group of hitters that can carry the team. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz can be fantastic, but they have to stay healthy. This has been the Sox’ achilles heel in recent history. Daniel Bard is transitioning from the setup role to the rotation, which is a smart move on Boston’s part. Andrew Bailey is the new closer and he needs to prove he can make it through an entire season. Mark Melancon, Alfredo Aceves , Michael Bowden and Franklin Morales make up the rest of the pen.<br />
<br />
New York Yankees<br />
Lineup: A-<br />
Rotation: A-<br />
Bullpen: B-<br />
Notes: Obviously, the offense mashes. I’m skeptical, however, of some players’ ability to stay healthy. Jeter, A-Rod, Swisher and Ibanez need to prove they can stay healthy in order to help Granderson, Cano and Teixeia. Sabathia anchors the rotation once again. Recent additions Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda will be critical pieces of the puzzle as the team’s success hinges on their transition to the Big Apple. Mariano Rivera is back once more, while David Robinson is a stud, too. The rest of the bullpen is pretty good, with Soriano looking to rebound and a functional lefty in Boone Logan.<br />
<br />
Tampa Bay Rays<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: A-<br />
Bullpen: B-<br />
Notes: The Rays will score a lot of runs, just like their counterparts in Boston and New York. Jennings and Upton will bat 1-2. Longoria is one of the best in the game at any position. Pena returns and Zobrist is one of the most valuable players in baseball, in my opinion. Shields, Price, Hellickson, Moore and Niemann are a very strong, deep rotation. They’re just as good as the Yankees and potentially a tad better. The bullpen is a little shallow, but not too bad. Veteran Kyle Farnsworth will get the save opportunities while Peralta and McGee will set him up. Fernando Rodney, Wade Davis and JP Howell are all veterans that can get quality outs.<br />
<br />
Toronto Blue Jays<br />
Lineup: B<br />
Rotation: B-<br />
Bullpen: B-<br />
Notes: Another offensive team, the Jays are clearly led by Jose Bautista. While he’s simply incredible, Escobar, Lind, Rasmus and Lawrie will need to be solid if the Toronto is to say around in this race. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow give the team a nice 1-2 punch. Behind them, the Jays are solid but not outstanding. Cecil, Alvarez and McGowan are all capable starters but are unfortunately going to face the Sox and Yankees often. This will result in them being simply overmatched more often than not. Sergio Santos, was acquired from Chicago, is a strikeout machine but needs to cut down on the walks. Francisco Cordero was a free agent signing and he’ll setup Santos. Veterans Casey Janssen, Darn Oliver and Jason Frasor will fill out the bullpen, one that looks pretty solid.<br />
<br />
Prediction<br />
1. Tampa Bay Rays<br />
2. Boston Red Sox<br />
3. New York Yankees<br />
4. Toronto Blue Jays<br />
5. Baltimore Orioles<br />
<br />
The balance of the Rays, mixed with their youthful ability to stay healthy and the wizardry of Joe Maddon will win this division. While all the hype is in Boston and New York, Tampa Bay is the most balanced group and they have the best manager in the big leagues. Now, don’t get me wrong, both Boston and New York are fully capable of winning this division, I’m just going with the Rays. The Red Sox need to get healthy, full bounce-back years from Youkillis, Pedroia, Buchholz, Beckett and Lester. I’m worried about Andrew Bailey’s ability to stay healthy for a full season as well, plus their bullpen isn’t all that impressive. New York will depend on Pineda and Kuroda’s ability to adjust from inconsequential games in Seattle and Los Angeles to the pressure-cooker that is New York and the AL East. The Yankees are old, too. Jeter is already dinged up (calf), A-Rod needs to stay healthy, Swisher is hurt and Ibanez’ bat is slowing down as he ages. Getting David Robertson (foot) back soon is important, too. Toronto is a quality club but they are stuck in an extremely tough division. The O’s are still trying to find their footing and won’t be a factor.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-40848784731474870502012-03-21T20:43:00.000-07:002012-03-21T20:43:32.746-07:00NL West Report CardNL WEST<br />
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One of my favorite divisions, the NL West has gone from embarrassingly terrible to highly competitive in just a few seasons. Now clearly a respectable division, it should be one of the most hotly contested in baseball. There are three teams that are solid that will all beat each other up all season long before one emerges victorious. Time to break this down.<br />
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Arizona Diamondbacks<br />
Lineup: B<br />
Rotation: B<br />
Bullpen: B<br />
Notes: A well-balanced squad, the DBacks have a great chance at getting back to the postseason in 2012. At the dish, they’re led by Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, Chris Young and Jason Kubel. Emerging players Paul Goldschmidt and Gerardo Parra will chip in as well. Ian Kennedy returns as the ace of a rotation that also contains Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter. I fully expect Trevor Bauer to join the bunch at some point, too. Putz, Hernandez, Saito and Breslow anchor the bullpen, which is a respectable group that will be important to Arizona’s success. This team has it all, but isn't overwhelming in any particular area.<br />
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Colorado Rockies<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: C<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: You know they can score runs, but run prevention will be a question mark. Tulo and CarGo are totally legit but they don’t have to do it all for the Rox. Cuddyer is a nice addition, Helton is still useful while Fowler and Scutaro will get on base enough to keep the offense clicking. Unfortunately, the rotation isn’t nearly as impressive. Guthrie, Chacin, Nicasio and Moscoso are all useful pitchers, but they are anything but dominant. Drew Pomeranz will make is anticipated full season debut but hasn’t been amazing this spring. The bullpen is reasonable but, yet again, is nothing to get excited about. Betancourt, Brothers and Belisle will have to carry an otherwise unimpressive staff.<br />
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Los Angeles Dodgers<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: B-<br />
Bullpen: B<br />
Notes: Matt Kemp is a total beast, but he’s almost completely going it alone in LA. Ethier had better bounce back or Kemp will get pitched around a lot. Dee Gordon has big time speed at the top of the order but it’s yet to be seen if he can get on base with regularity. The rest of the lineup is simply uninspiring. Clayton Kershaw is every bit as good a pitcher as Kemp is a hitter, but similarly to Kemp, there isn’t much surrounding him. Billingsly, Lilly, Harrang and Capuano are all veterans that know how to pitch but lack the pure stuff to dominate. Youngsters Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen are set to share the closing duties, while Matt Guerrier is a nice 7th inning guy to bridge the gap.<br />
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San Diego Padres<br />
Lineup: D+<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: I fully expect the Padres to be anemic once again this season. Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley and rookie Yonder Alonso will have to attempt to carry the offense (“attempt” is the key word here). I think we all know how well that’s going to play out. Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez will have to stabilize the rotation, as Corey Luebke and Dustin Moseley round things out. It’s not the worst pitching staff, that’s for sure, but they don’t have enough dominance to keep the lackluster offense in the game. The bullpen will be functional with Houston Street and Luke Gregerson. Cashner and Thatcher offer upside, but they are a weak bunch overall.<br />
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San Francisco Giants<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: A-<br />
Bullpen: B+<br />
Notes: If Pagan clicks, he and Cabrera could be a very nice pair of table-setters for the San Francisco offense. Another solid season from Pablo Sandoval is a must and getting Buster Posey back should only help. There’s unfortunately very little behind those four. Aubrey Huff is played out, Nate Schierholtz has never made the progress expected, Mike Fontenot is a poor hitter and Brandon Crawford is in the lineup for his glove, not his bat. The Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner trio rivals what the Phillies have on the mound. Vogelsong is a nice fourth starter and Barry Zito shouldn’t even be pitching any more. The bullpen is very good, especially if Brian Wilson can get back to form. He walked way too many batters last year. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez are nearly as good as any bullpen in baseball.<br />
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Prediction<br />
1. Arizona Diamondbacks<br />
2. San Francisco Giants<br />
3. Colorado Rockies<br />
4. Los Angeles Dodgers<br />
5. San Diego Padres<br />
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This is a real toss-up. Both Arizona and San Francisco will be legit contenders while, if their pitching surprises, Colorado could make a run as well. I truly see this coming down to the wire between the DBacks and Giants. Arizona is more well-balanced while the Giants are all pitching and will struggle to score as they usually do. The difference may be the fact that Arizona is in a “win now” mode where they will be willing to make a deadline deal that could push them over the top. Colorado and Los Angeles will score, but they don’t have enough pitching to keep up with the top two teams. San Diego is rebuilding, as usual. Cameron Maybin has been a nice surprise and if the prospects pan out, they could be competitive, but not in playoff contention.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-75844738840506836522012-03-18T10:28:00.000-07:002012-03-18T10:28:16.717-07:00NL Central Report CardAfter looking at the NL East yesterday, it's time to move to the NL Central today. It's another division that will be hotly contended, although it is a top-heavy division.<br />
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Chicago Cubs<br />
Lineup: C<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: C+<br />
Notes: I fully expect the North Siders to struggle at the plate in 2012. Starlin Castro is a budding star, but there’s little else to get excited about. David DeJesus is not a leadoff man and Bryan LaHair is not a cleanup hitter (though they pretend to play them for Chicago). If those two facts alone don’t suggest how poor the Cubs are offensively, I don’t know what does. They’ll get what they can out of Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto, but it will surely not be enough to compete on a serious level. Garza, Dempster and Maholom anchor a rotation that is respectable but not one I have high expectations of. Journeymen Randy Wells and Chris Volstad round out the pitching staff. Marmol, Samardzija and Wood are a compelling 1-2-3 out of the bullpen, but the rest of the staff is mediocre at best.<br />
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Cincinnati Reds<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: B+<br />
Notes: The lineup will produce quality runs because of guys like Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce. They are a well-rounded bunch at the plate and they’ll hold their own throughout the season. If Zack Cozart transitions well and Drew Stubbs can get back to being more productive, they could be fantastic. Starting pitching is solid for the Reds, but not something that will carry the squad. Cueto is reliable, Latos is overrated while Arroyo, Leake and Bailey are predictable but mediocre. Madson and Marshall, plus Masset and Arredondo, make the bullpen reliable and capable. It's unclear as of now just how Aroldis Chapman will be used, as his transition to being a starter is far from complete. The Reds are solid throughout but spectacular nowhere.<br />
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Houston Astros<br />
Lineup: D<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: D+<br />
Notes: Perhaps the worst of the worst, the Astros will be terrible offensively in 2012. I apologize if that sounds pretentious, but it’s true. Jordan Schafer will get his chance to prove himself in the leadoff role, but Altuve, Martinez (JD), Bogusevic and Paredes are far from household names with proven track records. At least an aging, less mobile, less explosive, overpaid Carlos Lee is still around, right? The pitching will be decent and clearly the relative strength, given Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, JA Happ, Livan Hernandez and Jordan Lyles make up the rotation. Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon will anchor the bullpen, but the rest of the relief corps is underwhelming to say the least. Note: this is what rebuilding looks like.<br />
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Milwaukee Brewers<br />
Lineup: B<br />
Rotation: B+<br />
Bullpen: B<br />
Notes: Another balanced squad, Milwaukee looks to get back to their old ways after a tumultuous offseason. They saw Prince Fielder walk and Ryan Braun get suspended for 50 games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy, only to have him beat the case for the first time in MLB history. Weeks, Braun and Aramis Ramirez give them star power. Mat Gamel will need to live up to his once highly-touted prospect status in his attempt to replace Fielder at first, while Nyjer Morgan and Alex Gonzalez, plus Carlos Gomez, will play complimentary roles. Gallardo and Greinke are fantastic, while Wolf, Marcum and Narveson are all solid, capable, reliable starters. Axford and Rodriguez are fantastic relievers, but there’s little proven depth behind them. <br />
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Pittsburgh Pirates<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: C-<br />
Bullpen: B-<br />
Notes: The Pirates have been a sexy pick to surprise people this upcoming season, but I’m not buying it. Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker are the only two proven hitters. Presley, Tabata, Jones and Alvarez are promising but unproven. It’s hard to say just how they’ll produce and a lot of the Buccos’ success will depend on them. A rotation of James McDonald, Charlie Morton, Erik Bedard, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens will hardly scare anyone. They aren’t terrible, but they’re definitely not outstanding. Hanrahan, Meek and Grilli are above average, but not by much. The rest of the bullpen is below average. The Pirates are still a ways away from being legit, in my opinion.<br />
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St. Louis Cardinals<br />
Lineup: B<br />
Rotation: B+<br />
Bullpen: B<br />
Notes: It’s yet to be seen just how the offense will react to losing Albert Pujols, but they’re still pretty potent with Holliday and Berkman anchoring things. Furcal and Beltran are legit, too, but need to stay healthy if the Cardinals want to get back to September success. David Freese needs to parlay his success in the World Series into a solid regular season. The rotation, led by Chris Carpenter, gains a stud in Adam Wainwright who returns from surgery. While Carpenter may miss the start of the season (minor injury), the rest of the rotation is solid. Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are all steady contributors who are capable of shutting the opponent down from time to time. Motte is a capable closer who isn’t the most experienced, but has the moxy to work through the ninth. Rzepczynski, Salas and Eduardo Sanchez (not Kenny Powers’ father) round out the reliable bullpen.<br />
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Predicted Finish<br />
1. St. Louis Cardinals<br />
2. Cincinnati Reds<br />
3. Milwaukee Brewers<br />
4. Pittsburgh Pirates<br />
5. Chicago Cubs<br />
6. Houston Astros<br />
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This division is squarely up for grabs. The Cardinals, Reds and Brewers are all capable of taking the division by storm and winning it outright. I give the slight nod to St. Louis given their experience and I feel like they are the least risky option of the three. The Reds and Brewers will nip at their heels along the way and probably all take turns leading the division at one point or another. The Reds’ starting pitching could be problematic and Milwaukee will need to find consistency scoring runs. Make no mistake, this race could go a number of ways. I don’t see it falling in favor of the Pirates, Cubs or Astros, however. Pittsburgh has too many question marks and not enough quality starting pitching. The Cubs are going to struggle to score runs with any kind of consistency. The Astros will probably struggle in just about every aspect of the game. They may be the worst team in baseball in 2012.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-11797642377151664842012-03-17T13:12:00.000-07:002012-03-17T13:12:59.710-07:00NL East Report CardAs the season draws closer to officially starting (in Japan, no less), where do the teams stand? I will be grading each team, division by division, in three categories: lineup, rotation and bullpen. After each grading session, I’ll predict the teams’ finish within their respective division. Let’s go!<br />
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National League<br />
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Let’s start with the senior circuit where things have thinned out a little. The shift of both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols to the AL has decreased the league’s firepower to a degree. We’ll work our way from east to west, as does the sun.<br />
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NL EAST<br />
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Atlanta Braves<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: B<br />
Bullpen: A-<br />
Notes: The lineup is strong when everyone’s healthy, but counting on anything more than 100-110 games from Chipper Jones is a losing proposition. Bourn is an explosive leadoff guy, but question marks such as Freddy Freeman, Jayson Heyward, whoever takes over at short (Pasternicky or Simmons) and Dan Uggla have me cautiously optimistic at best. The rotation is solid but not outstanding. Jair Jurrjens is incredibly overrated (that's why they can't trade him), Tommy Hanson is coming off of injury, Beachy is young but effective, Mike Minor is solid and the back end of Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran offers hope. The bullpen is about as good as it gets. Kimbrel and Venters are potentially the best 1-2 punch of any bullpen in baseball and Eric O’Flaherty is simply amazing. Arodys Vizcaino gives the Braves another young arm to work with. If there’s any weakness here at all, it’s a lack of overall experience.<br />
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Miami Marlins<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: B<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: This team will score runs in bunches, rest assured. Reyes and Bonafacio at the top creates an incredibly fast pairing. Ramirez, Stanton and Morrison in the heart of the order, followed by an emergin Gaby Sanchez, make the Miami lineup one you don’t want to play around with. The question marks lie with Reyes’ ability to stay healthy and Ramirez’ return to prominence after a down year. If his spring is any indication, he’s in top form after moving to third base. Josh Johnson’s return is a welcome sign and the addition of Mark Buehrle should stabilize things. Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are capable of doing very good things but must live up to the billing. Mark my words, Carlos Zambrano as a fifth starter will not pan out (Brad Hand, get ready). Although they added Heath Bell in the offseason, the bullpen is uninspiring. Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) is a capable set-up man, but Dunn, Webb, Choate and Mujica are not convincing.<br />
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New York Mets<br />
Lineup: C-<br />
Rotation: C+<br />
Bullpen: C<br />
Notes: If you aren’t preparing for a long season in Flushing, you should be. The lineup is impotent, David Wright is already hurt by an injury that could nag a long time (torn abdominal muscle) and there is little other firepower. Ike Davis, Jason Bay and Lucas Duda will need to do big things if this team wants to contend or simply remain competitive. Andres Torres is a boom or bust candidate in centerfield hitting in the leadoff spot. Johan Santana returns to the rotation and has been up and down this spring. RA Dickey is terrible but Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee all have the ability to do good things, albeit inconsistently. The bullpen is a mashed up group of veterans that can be effective. They are lacking a strong matchup lefty, however.<br />
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Philadelphia Phillies<br />
Lineup: B+<br />
Rotation: A<br />
Bullpen: B+<br />
Notes: Another offensive powerhouse, the Phillies will look to do big damage in 2012. They’re a veteran bunch that is capable of putting up big numbers, but that has to come to fruition if they are going to win this division. Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Victorino and Howard (whose return isn’t set just yet, achilles injury) have to come through as they have in the past. Down years or significant injuries from these guys could put a damper on expectations very quickly. The rotation may be the best in baseball, given the 1-2-3 punch or Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Beyond them, Vance Worley can be solid while Joe Blanton is, well, Joe Blanton. Joel Pinero or Kyle Kendrick will replace him before it’s all said in done, in my estimation. The bullpen is in good hands with Papelbon, Bastardo and Qualls. Contreras and Stutes are also solid while unspectacular. <br />
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Washington Nationals<br />
Lineup: B-<br />
Rotation: B+<br />
Bullpen: A-<br />
Notes: The Nats are a feast or famine bunch at the plate. They feature several high-strikeout/low on-base types (Desmond, Espinosa, Morse, Werth, LaRoche) that can provide power but are inconsistent producers. They can score ten runs one day and none the next, making them hard to predict. A call up of Bryce Harper should be expected early on, probably pushing Jayson Werth to center and putting Roger Bernadina on the bench. Strasburg is back and looking sharp, while Gonzalez, Zimmerman, and Jackson are a solid bunch. John Lannan may be traded prior to the season, opening up the fifth spot to Ross Detwiler or Chien-Ming Wang. The bullpen features a fearsome foursome of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge and Sean Burnett. This team will pitch well, but needs to score runs consistently in 2012 to meet expectations.<br />
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Predicted Finish<br />
1. Philadelphia Phillies<br />
2. Washington Nationals<br />
3. Miami Marlins<br />
4. Atlanta Braves<br />
5. New York Mets<br />
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I like the Phillies, with their experience and pitching, to win the division, provided they stay relatively healthy. Teams 2-4 are a total crapshoot and you could actually make a case any of them to challenge the Phillies for the top spot. I like the Nationals because of their pitching and I think they can score enough to win a lot of games, especially if Jayson Werth bounces back and Zimmerman stays healthy. The Marlins will be on their heels all year and I expect them to capitalize on any mistakes made by Philadelphia or Washington. Their rotation is slightly weaker than the others, and I’m concerned about Jose Reyes’ ability to stay healthy and guide the offense. Josh Johnson’s health is another question mark, plus the bullpen is not all that good. Heath Bell is overrated, in my opinion, and will potentially struggle without Petco Park to pad his numbers. The Braves will be competitive and could surprise. They need Chipper to stay healthy, Heyward to bounce back, Freeman to continue to grow and full season of production from Uggla. They have good pitching, but can they score enough runs in a potent division? The Mets stink. That’s all I’ll say about that.<br />
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On Deck: NL CENTRALJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-54711994147812864462012-03-10T06:13:00.000-08:002012-03-10T06:13:08.128-08:00How Freaky Should the Giants Get?We all know Tim Lincecum is a total freak of nature, hence his nickname. The 5’11”, 163-pound righty has been dominant since his days at the University of Washington. With an unorthodox delivery that has consistently served him well, he was drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft, tenth overall, to the San Francisco Giants. He made a handful of starts that year in low-A, then high-A ball before the end of the minor league season. He skipped AA altogether and the Giants put him on the fast track by opening his 2007 season in AAA where he struck out over 13 batters per nine innings and had a microscopic ERA of 0.29. He was called up after only 62 career minor league innings and has been a true talent at the big league level ever since. In only five Major League seasons, he’s won two Cy-Young awards and been an All-Star four times, has a career 2.98 ERA, has toppled the 200-inning mark in each of his four full seasons, has a career record of 69-41 (which would be undoubtedly better if his offense would pick him up occasionally) and averages nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings. <br />
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What does this mean? He’s an ace in every sense of the word. So with Tim’s deal set to expire at the end of the 2013 season, the Giants would, unsurprisingly, like to lock him up to a contract more long-term. But how long term should the Giants and Lincecum be looking? Well, the Giants are apparently comfortable with something in the five-year neighborhood while Mr. Lincecum would like something that looks more like seven or eight years in length. Apparently, Tim and his representatives just rejected a 5-year, $100+ million deal. Should the club cave to Tim because of his effectiveness or are his demands unrealistic? There are arguments to be made for each party. <br />
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Lincecum will argue that the performance he’s mustered in his short career have been incredibly valuable to the organization. This is completely true. He’s anchored a staff that has had to be dominant just to keep the team contending due to their offensive limitations. In fact, without Tim’s fantastic 2010 postseason play, there’s no conceivable way the team would have won the World Series. He went 4-1 that postseason with a 2.43 ERA, kept his WHIP under 1.0 and struck out 10.5 batters per nine. At a time when having an ace to guide a team is most critical, Lincecum delivered. He projects as a first-ballot hall of famer, should he continue his success, stay free of disastrous injury and age gracefully. He’s routinely a top-five pitcher in the league and one of the best at his craft. Most of all, Giant fans love the guy and he puts people in the seats everywhere he pitches. His jersey sells and he’s the face of the franchise. All considered, Lincecum will make a solid, reasonable case for a 7-8 year deal.<br />
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San Francisco and Brian Sabean, on the other hand, probably aren’t too thrilled about a deal of this length. Long-term pitching contracts are often problematic. As anyone who studies baseballs knows, pitchers are a volatile bunch. They get hurt much more often than hitters and even a small drop in velocity, say as a pitcher ages, can be extremely detrimental. While it isn’t a perfect comparison, Barry Zito’s deal, signed in 2007, has been a complete and total bust. The Giants gave Zito a 7-year, $126 million deal, one which will do down as one of the worst contracts ever. Zito had won a Cy Young with Oakland and was a two-time All-Star before coming across the Bay Bridge. In his five seasons with the Giants, he’s 43-61 with a 4.55 ERA, meaning he’s barely even a legitimate fifth starter in a big league rotation. He had been 102-63 with Oakland, so the deal seemed legit, but hasn’t panned out. This has understandable made the Giants gun-shy of going down that road again. Of course, there are also deals to pitchers such as Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, AJ Burnett, John Lackey, Jake Peavy and others to add to the “horrible contract heap,” meaning Zito isn’t simply an outlier. Then again, there are deals like CC Sabathia’s (8-years, $182 million) that appear to be panning out nicely. There isn’t, however, a bevy of 8-year pitching contracts that actually appear to be worth the money, making Sabathia nearly one-of-a-kind. Also, Sabathia (6’7”, 290lbs) and Lincecum (not even 6-foot) are different types of pitchers, which won’t help Tim and his agents if they try to use Sabathia’s contract as a comparison. The last factor on the Giants’ side is the fact that Lincecum’s velocity and strikeouts have been down over the last two seasons while his walks and hits allowed have been up slightly. This doesn’t mean he isn’t good anymore; rather, he just hasn’t been quite as elite.<br />
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So where does the middle lie? Often times, these deals work themselves out. The team offers a deal in one area and the player demands another. The answer often appears in the middle somewhere as both sides, if they truly want to stay together, will have to compromise. I absolutely do not see the Giants doing an 8-year deal, but they may have to commit more to Tim than five years if they wish to keep him. I’d argue for something in the 6-year, $128 million range, with a mutual option for a seventh year at about $23 million. This would keep The Freak in San Francisco through his early 30’s without locking the team into something they’ll regret for nearly a decade. A deal like this makes sense for everyone involved, including the fan base. While a deal before the season is unlikely, this needs to happen sooner rather than later to cement the Giants’ future success and keep their ace a happy camper.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-83497825753608870902012-03-08T09:09:00.000-08:002012-03-08T09:09:25.566-08:00Bounce Back or Continued Decline? David Wright EditionHaving long been one of my favorite players, David Wright is facing a year where much of his future career hangs in the balance. Like so many out there, fantasy sports were where my obsession with baseball really began. Just as I was getting competitive with my college friends about fantasy, David Wright was busting onto the scene in a big way. I couldn’t find a player who, to me, seemed a whole lot more exciting, as he hit .303, slugged 27 dingers and stole 17 bases for an electric but volatile Mets squad in 2005, his first full season. Man, that seems like so long ago after witnessing two straight seasons of decline.<br />
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Wright has a lot to prove as the only true remaining face of the franchise. GM Sandy Alderson recently asked the most important question: “Is he part of the future? I hope the answer is yes.” Well, hoping is one thing, but actually getting it done on the diamond is surely another. What will it take for Alderson to turn hoping into believing? Let’s look at David’s most recent shortcomings and identify where he can improve.<br />
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Strikeouts: perhaps the most alarming thing about Wright’s performance has been his dramatic increase in K’s. He maintained a respectable strikeout rate in his first four full seasons of about 16.5%. While that isn’t amazingly low, it’s reasonable given the pop coming off his bat. In the last three years, however, that rate has spiked to an average of about 23%, far higher than his previous work. These contact rates are hurting Wright big time.<br />
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Walks: David’s patience at the plate has waned somewhat. While the drop off isn’t nearly as staggering as his strikeout numbers, we’ve seen a steady decrease in his walk rates. He is walking 2-3% less frequently these days than he did at his peak production. This has led to a decreased on-base percentage and, when coupled with his strikeout problems, shows that he’s been pressing and not staying back, waiting for his pitch and driving it. A more patient approach can only help him.<br />
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Power: another huge surprise with Wright has been his inexplicable drop in power output. In both 2009 and 2011, David had very disappointing homerun totals. The new Citi Field doesn’t help, but it has been more than just park factors slowing him down. His line-drive percentage has dropped about 8% from its peak (26% in 2009 to 18% in 2011). He’s hitting more grounders and, given his average running speed, that isn’t helping him at all. Wright has to get back to squaring up the ball and driving it more consistently. A look at his spray chart from 2011 shows he’s still hitting to all fields, but he’s rolling over too much and grounding out to the left side of the infield too often.<br />
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Fielding: while UZR is far from a perfect science, Wright’s fielding grades have plummeted. A simple eye test proves that he’s regressed from a slightly above-average fielder to a below-average fielder in the past few seasons. This is having a very negative effect on his overall value to his team. With Rueben Tejada likely taking over at shortstop for Jose Reyes (Miami), David will have to do a better job with the glove to solidify the left side of the Mets’ infield. As an offense that will scuffle at times, run-prevention will be critical to their success. <br />
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Health/Durability: while he was incredibly durable during his first five seasons, David needs to prove he can stay on the field. Injuries have had a negative effect on his offensive production, but they appear to be slowing him down in the field and on the basepaths as well. This means one of two things. Either Wright has been significantly hampered by injuries but will be fine once he heals, or he isn’t aging as well as initially expected. This year will have a lot to say about how to answer this question.<br />
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“Let’s see how he bounces back this season.” Alderson is wondering and hoping just like the rest of us. How David Wright bounces back this season means a lot to the Mets and also the rest of his career.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-45748430603038004582012-03-06T09:20:00.000-08:002012-03-06T09:20:35.066-08:00Should the DBacks Ditch Young?When the Diamondbacks acquired Jason Kubel this offseason, the conventional wisdom concluded that Gerardo Parra was about to find his way out of Arizona. Well, that isn’t the case as the DBacks just locked up Parra for this season and have made clear that he isn’t leaving. This is a good decision on the part of Towers & Co. The outfield is still crowded, however, so someone should go. That someone just might be all-star Chris Young.<br />
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Young has made progress since becoming a full time starter in 2007. His strikeouts have slightly fallen while his walks have increased, leading to an OBP that has been trending upward since he was called up. In 2007, his OBP was .295 while his average over the last two years has been significantly better at .336. He’s still far from an on-base machine, but this shows his maturity at the plate. He’s a legit 30-30 guy and came close in 2010 when he went for 27 and 28. He’s a good fielder, too, posting above-average grades in centerfield. Last but not least, he’s signed through 2013 on a relatively team-friendly deal. So why should the Diamondbacks trade him? Gerardo Parra is too good to play off the bench, that’s why.<br />
<br />
Parra is coming off his finest season as a pro and is starting to live up to his billing as a prospect. He won his first Gold Glove last year, albeit in LF, but he’s a fantastic defensive outfielder no matter where you stick him. He doesn’t quite have the pop that Young has but he hits for a higher average and has already showed significant maturity at the plate. His OBP last year was .357 in his age 24 season, showing that he has great strikezone judgment for such a young player. His on-base skills will be more valuable to the Diamondbacks from the leadoff spot than Young’s slugging. Arizona doesn’t need another slugger with a low average and relatively high strikeouts, they need a sparkplug for the offense and they already have one in the organization. To cap it off, Parra is about 6.5 million dollars cheaper this year and at least 7 million dollars cheaper in 2013. They could save $13+ million, net a decent prospect or two in return for a trade and probably improve their offense while also finding a place to play for their Gold Glove fielder. What’s not to like about that?<br />
<br />
Simply put, Gerardo Parra is way too good to bring off the bench as a 4th outfielder. That’s a spot that can easily be given to a cheap journeyman or an up-and-comer. Parra’s performance has made Young expendable, which is a good thing for Arizona. The Nationals and others are in the market for centerfielders and if the DBacks aren’t currently shopping Young, they should be.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-38306318936903972012012-03-06T06:43:00.000-08:002012-03-06T06:43:08.702-08:00Critical National: Ian DesmondWhile watching MLB Network the other day, I couldn’t help but notice something that caught both my ear and my eyes. No, it wasn’t Strausburg or Harper, not the recently extended Zimmerman or the “furry” Jayson Werth. It was Ian Desmond, the starting shortstop who is about to embark on his third full season as an MLB starter. He will be the leadoff man for the Nats once again and if they are to improve and truly challenge for the NL East title as is being discussed in preseason circles, Desmond has a lot of work to do.<br />
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After watching him hack at the first pitch in each of his three at-bats, I came to a startling conclusion: Ian Desmond is not a patient hitter. Now, before you declare that you already knew this, let’s make sure I’m right. A quick look at some stats tells us that Desmond is truly impatient. First of all, he only averages about 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. While 3.5 isn't considered "terrible," that isn’t exactly considered “working the count” either. In 1302 major league at-bats, he’s walked a total of 68 times. Yeah, that’s not a typo. He barely walks 5% of the time as a leadoff hitter. Despite being a high-contact guy, he doesn’t hit for much average because of his relatively low line-drive percentage. Couple this with his aversion to walks and you have a full time leadoff man whose on-base percentage dipped below .300 last year. That’s not productive in the least.<br />
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While Desmond’s (overly) aggressive approach caught my eye, the announcers caught my ear. They were stating that Ian’s “not your typical leadoff guy,” or he’s “not your traditional number one hitter,” and the like. This was simply a really nice, glass half-full, Nationals-slanted way of saying that he’s not currently very good. This isn’t a simple case of a player being unlucky either, as is noted when gauging his BABIP. He just isn’t very efficient at the plate. While the Nats don’t have a lot of other options, giving a player like Desmond the most at-bats on the team does not look like a sure plan to take them to the next level. Perhaps this is why Washington is so aggressively shopping for a centerfielder, or maybe they just aren’t happy with the group of underachievers they currently have there. Either way, they need more productivity out of the leadoff spot and Desmond currently mans that position.<br />
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For Washington to take the next leap to being a true contender, Ian Desmond is going to have to pick it up. A lot.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-65649980017111126522012-03-05T19:13:00.000-08:002012-03-05T19:13:19.976-08:00AL West: the season that will beMoving forward, into 2012, there still two teams sitting atop the division with the other squads looking up. There have definitely been some changes in the division, however, and here’s how I see it shaking out:<br />
<br />
1. Los Angeles<br />
2. Texas<br />
3. Oakland <br />
4. Seattle<br />
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Seattle will bring up the rear once again in 2012. It will also be yet another season of trying new things and seeing just what works and what doesn’t. The lineup has already been shaken up, with Eric Wedge’s decision to bat Chone Figgins in the leadoff spot and have Ichiro bat third. This will likely fail for a number of reasons, but at least the M’s aren’t standing pat. Mike Carp in LF is a question mark, especially defensively. Justin Smoak needs to improve in a very big way and Ackley will be trying to improve on his rookie season. Recent acquisition Jesus Montero will be a big piece of the puzzle as well, and his development behind the plate will be something to watch out for. Expected CF Franklin Gutierrez tore a pectoral muscle and will be out for the first few weeks of the season. Replacements could be Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders or Casper Wells. Here’s their projected lineup:<br />
<br />
1. Chone Figgins (3B)<br />
2. Dusting Ackley (2B)<br />
3. Ichiro Suzuki (RF)<br />
4. Mike Carp (LF)<br />
5. Jesus Montero (DH)<br />
6. Justin Smoak (1B)<br />
7. Miguel Olivo (C)<br />
8. Casper Wells (CF)<br />
9. Brendan Ryan (SS)<br />
<br />
<br />
On the mound, Felix will be Felix, but beyond that is anyone’s guess. Jason Vargas is a serviceable starter and a nice contrast from Hernandez, but the likes of Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma (signed from Japan) and Hector Noesi (acquire in the Pineda/Montero swap) are anything but sure bets. How much does Millwood have left in the tank? Will Iwakuma be able to transition to American baseball and culture successfully? Is Noesi ready to be a full time starter? There are clearly more questions than answers here. The bullpen is a patchwork bunch where Brandon League will be the closer once again. His strikeout numbers dropped in 2011 and you can bet he’ll be trying to get back to being a little more dominant. Tom Wilhelmsen and Shawn Kelley, both journeyman guys, will some combination of the 7th/8th inning opportunities. George Sherrill is a veteran lefty who was added at low cost after seeing his effectiveness decline in recent seasons. Here’s how the rotation and bullpen should shake out initially, but expect some serious fluctuation as the season progresses:<br />
<br />
1. Felix Hernandez (RHP)<br />
2. Jason Vargas (LHP)<br />
3. Hisashi Iwakuma (RHP)<br />
4. Kevin Millwood (RHP)<br />
5. Hector Noesi (RHP)<br />
<br />
CL Brandon League (RHP)<br />
SU Tom Wilhelmsen (RHP)<br />
SU Shawn Kelley (RHP)<br />
MR George Sherrill (LHP)<br />
MR Chance Ruffin (RHP)<br />
MR Hong-Chih Kuo (LHP)<br />
LR Shawn Camp (RHP) or Charlie Furbush (LHP) or Blake Beavan (RHP)<br />
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This is a relatively uninspiring bunch, in the lineup, bullpen and the rotation. The real surprises will come whenever the M’s begin calling up prospects, such as James Paxton and Danny Hultzen. Until then, Seattle fans will have to just grin and bear it.<br />
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On the East Side of the Bay, the A’s have shaken things up. They let Josh Willingham, the only player from last year to hit more than 15 homeruns last season, escape via free agency. Most of us were wondering just what they’d do to replace that power and, for most of the offseason, it seemed they’d do nothing at all. Then, out of nowhere, they signed Cuban superstar Yoenis Cespedes to patrol CF, and then took a cheap flier on Manny Ramirez to play DH (after sitting out the first 50 games of the season for suspension). It’s hard to say how much better this makes them, but it certainly can’t have hurt things at all. Jemile Weeks and Coco Crisp will continue to supply speed at the top of the lineup. Josh Reddick and Seth Smith will hit in the middle of the order, with Cespedes likely batting a little further down to get comfortable with American pitching. Scott Sizemore was going to be the Opening Day 3B after he had a nice 2011, but a torn ACL ended that. Replacement candidates are unclear at this time. They won’t score a ton of runs, but once again it will be a team effort in Oakland to put runs on the board. Here’s the projected lineup:<br />
<br />
1. Jemile Weeks (2B)<br />
2. Coco Crisp (LF)<br />
3. Josh Reddick (RF)<br />
4. Seth Smith (DH)<br />
5. Deric Barton (1B)<br />
6. Yoenis Cespedes (CF)<br />
7. Kurt Suzuki (C)<br />
8. Josh Donaldson (3B)<br />
9. Cliff Pennington (SS)<br />
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The lineup isn’t very imposing and, unfortunately, neither is the rotation. The only returner is Brandon McCarthy, who really impressed last year. He’s expected to be the ace and Opening Day starter. After McCarthy, free agent signee Bartolo Colon will take his turn. He was serviceable for the Yankees last year and is your typical Billy Beane pickup. A trio of young prospects will make up the rest of the rotation. Brad Peacock and Tom Millone, both acquired from the Nationals in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, will get a lot of starts. The fifth starter is projected to be touted Jarrod Parker, the key piece in the Cahill-to-the-Diamondbacks trade. Dallas Braden may not be ready to start the season after recovering from shoulder surgery and Brett Anderson should miss most, if not all of the season recovering from Tommy John. Brian Fuentes will remain the closer with Grant Balfour setting him up. Look out for emerging star Fautino De Los Santos. He’s young and has great stuff. Journeyman like Joey Devine and Jerry Blevins will pitch in as well. The rotation and bullpen should look something like this:<br />
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1. Brandon McCarthy (RHP)<br />
2. Bartolo Colon (RHP)<br />
3. Brad Peacock (RHP)<br />
4. Tom Millone (LHP)<br />
5. Jarrod Parker (RHP)<br />
<br />
CL Brian Fuentes (LHP)<br />
SU Grant Balfour (RHP)<br />
SU Fautino De Los Santos (RHP)<br />
MR Joey Devine (RHP)<br />
MR Ryan Cook (RHP)<br />
MR Jerry Blevins (LHP)<br />
LR Graham Godfrey (RHP) or Tyson Ross (RHP)<br />
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The Texas Rangers will be a powerhouse yet again. They look like legitimate contenders for a date with the postseason, and for good reason. Their truest strength lies at the plate, where the Rangers simply mash. Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Mike Napoli, Michael Young and Nelson Cruz help create a lineup that you do not want to mess with. I fully expect Ian Kinsler to lead off once again, followed by an emerging Elvis Andrus. Kinsler is a functional 2B in the field and an excellent hitter with great power for the position. Hamilton and Beltre make a nasty middle of the lineup tandem for opposing pitchers. Mike Napoli will try to reproduce the magical 2011 he had and it doesn’t get any easier when Michael Young comes to the plate. This is possibly the most powerful lineup in the big leagues. David Murphy and Mitch Moreland round things out. I’m a little confused with where to put Young, but the lineup should look similar to this:<br />
<br />
1. Ian Kinsler 2B<br />
2. Elvis Andrus SS<br />
3. Josh Hamilton CF<br />
4. Adrian Beltre 3B<br />
5. Michael Young DH<br />
6. Mike Napoli C<br />
7. Nelson Cruz RF<br />
8. Mitch Moreland 1B<br />
9. David Murphy LF<br />
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On the mound, the team is a little less imposing. Ace CJ Wilson did not re-sign with the team this offseason, so the Ranger had to look elsewhere for rotation help. Lucky for them, they won the bidding for Japanese sensation Yu Darvish. While he’s yet to throw a major league pitch yet, projections for Darvish are quite impressive and he was massively successful in Japan. The other pieces of the rotation consist of homegrown talent such as Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland. Perhaps a major question mark for Texas exists with closer-turned-starter Neftali Feliz. While being one of baseball’s better closers in the last few seasons, he’s attempting to transition to the rotation for the Rangers. How successful that transition goes will determine a lot for the Texas. In the bullpen, replacing Feliz, is veteran reliever Joe Nathan. He’s set up by one of the best in Mike Adams. Koji Uehara and Alexi Ogando will also play pivotal roles. Here are my projected rotation and bullpen for the Rangers:<br />
<br />
1. Colby Lewis (RHP)<br />
2. Derek Holland (LHP)<br />
3. Yu Darvish (RHP)<br />
4. Matt Harrison (LHP)<br />
5. Neftali Feliz (RHP)<br />
<br />
CL Joe Nathan (RHP)<br />
SU Mike Adams (RHP)<br />
SU Alexi Ogando (RHP)<br />
MR Koji Uehara (RHP)<br />
MR Mark Lowe (RHP)<br />
MR Yoshinori Tateyama (RHP)<br />
LR Scott Feldman<br />
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Once again, the Rangers will score a ton of runs and hope to hold their opponents to a reasonably small total. Don’t expect them to shut other teams out very often, but with an offense like theirs, they should be all right.<br />
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The new head of the division should be the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim. They made the biggest of big splashes by signing Albert Pujols this offseason, then stole from their rivals, the Rangers, by getting ahold of CJ Wilson in free agency. At the plate, the Angels disappointed in 2011. They’ll likely be better in 2012 (adding Pujols will do that for you) but won’t be as strong as the Rangers. Erick Aybar had a good 2011 and will try to keep it up after signing an extension in the offseason. Aging on-base machine Bobby Abreu will try to rebound, as will Torii Hunter. Howie Kendrick had a fantastic season and also got himself extended this winter. Vernon Wells has been a huge disappointment, which I can’t say is surprising, ever since he came to LA from Toronto in a surprising move last year. A trade with Colorado netted the Angels Chris Ianetta, a good pickup, and emerging outfielder Peter Bourjos is expected to continue to grow in centerfield. Here’s the projected lineup:<br />
<br />
1. Erick Aybar SS<br />
2. Bobby Abreau DH<br />
3. Albert Pujols 1B<br />
4. Torii Hunter RF<br />
5. Howie Kendrick 2B<br />
6. Alberto Callaspo 3B<br />
7. Vernon Wells LF<br />
8. Chris Iannetta C<br />
9. Peter Bourjos CF<br />
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The rotation should be fantastic and it’s where the true strength of the Angels resides. Jered Weaver will be the Opening Day starter, but there are two others that are capable of pitching at the same level. Dan Haren is an underrated stud on the mound, perhaps statistically better than Weaver even. The newly-acquired Wilson will take the ball third after a career year in 2011. Ervin Santana is a terrific choice for a fourth starter and journeyman Jerome Williams rounds things out. Jordan Walden will attempt to improve on a successful rookie year as the team’s closer. Veteran relievers Scott Downs and LaTroy Hawkins will set up Walden, and the Angel’s bullpen will continue to benefit from their presence. A nice, low-cost pickup was the signing of Jason Isringhausen. Just how much he has left in the tank is questionable, but he’s another potential veteran that can stabilize the ‘pen. Things should look like this:<br />
<br />
1. Jered Weaver RHP<br />
2. Dan Haren RHP<br />
3. CJ Wilson LHP<br />
4. Ervin Santan RHP<br />
5. Jerome Williams RHP<br />
<br />
CL Jordan Walden (RHP)<br />
SU Scott Downs (LHP)<br />
SU LaTroy Hawkins (RHP)<br />
MR Hisanori Takahashi (LHP)<br />
MR Jason Isringhausen (RHP)<br />
MR Rich Thompson (RHP)<br />
LR Bobby Cassevah (RHP)<br />
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I fully expect the Angels and Rangers to battle for the division all year long, but I give the slightest of edges to the Angels, based upon their pitching. I feel they are a more balance ball club overall. They will both make Seattle and Oakland miserable.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-74300138014971463392012-02-28T19:07:00.001-08:002012-03-05T19:11:29.163-08:00AL West: the season that wasAL West: The Season That Was<br />
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Let’s start with the American League West, home of my hometown Seattle Mariners. In 2011, the Rangers were clearly head of the class, despite the Angels’ efforts to stay competitive for the division. The Mariners started hot and then cooled quickly. The A’s were the sweetheart pick of the division and many pundits were thinking they might compete for the division. Instead, they finished 14 games under .500. <br />
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The final standings were:<br />
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1. Texas: 96-66 (.593), OGB<br />
2. Los Angeles: 86-76 (.531), 10GB<br />
3. Oakland: 74-88 (.457), 22GB<br />
4. Seattle: 67-95 (.414), 29 GB<br />
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Seattle had a lot of question marks heading into the season and everybody knew it. “Play the kids” was the motto of most fans, hoping that the youth movement would turn a new leaf. After a decent start, things went south rather quickly. Ichiro went on to have the worst season of his career, Chone Figgins never figured things out, Justin Smoak struggled badly and the rest is history. Mid-season trades of pitchers Erik Bedard and Doug Fister netted the franchise some prospects, but nothing more than what appears to be some ancillary pieces. The starting pitching was good for the most part and the bullpen held it’s own. As is often the case with this squad, they couldn’t score runs. By early summer prospects were called up, including the impressive Dustin Ackley, one of the few bright spots for the squad. Trayvon Robinson was nothing more than ok, and Mike Carp was up and down, but finished on the up. It was a long, dismal season in the NW.<br />
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Oakland was a popular “dark horse” (a true contradiction) pick for many writers and fans. Their pitching didn’t quite live up to it’s billing, however, as Andrew Bailey, Trevor Cahill and others never quite go going. While actually five games over .500 at home, they were abysmal on the road. Quietly, Brandon McCarthy had a nice year on the mound, as did Grant Balfour and Fautino De Los Santos. The team lacked power at the plate once again, a familiar trend in Oakland. Coco Crisp had a relatively nice season in CF and Jemile Weeks was a nice revelation at 2B. In case you’re unaware, those two players have absolutely zero power. Josh Willingham, the only player capable of putting the ball over the fence with regularity, was signed by the Minnesota Twins in the offseason. It’s sad when you have to admit that Willingham, Crisp, Ryan Sweeney and Scott Sizemore led the offense for the bulk of the season. At least “Moneyball” was good.<br />
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The Angels did their absolute best to keep up with the Rangers. Despite being a under-powered at the plate, they were stellar on the bump. With one the better pitching duos in baseball, they stayed in the race most of the way through the season, only really falling out of contention with about eight games left in the regular season. Dan Haren led the way, followed closely by Jared Weaver. Quality start after quality start, these two kept the team competitive. Even Ervin Santana was pretty good while rookie closer Jordan Walden had some bumps in the road, but proved capable of shutting down the ninth. Scott Downs was good out of the pen, too, as was LaTroy Hawkins. The back-end of the rotation let the team down somewhat, as did their offensive production. Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick had good seasons at the dish, but the aging Bobby Abreu slowed down (finally) and Vernon Wells was, well, Vernon Wells. Mark Trumbo had a good-ish year at 1B, depending on how you look at it, and Peter Bourjos better than expected in CF. The Angels were above average, largely due to their starting pitching, but not by much.<br />
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The Texas Rangers were clearly the head of the class, and this was evident early on. Their offense was extremely potent and they had enough pitching to make it interesting. Outscoring their opponents was their key strategy, as opposed to run-prevention. Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Nelson Cruz all had outstanding years at the plate. Elvis Andrus seemed to really come into his own and David Murphy was a fantastic utility outfielder. On the mound, the team was led by CJ Wilson, who had a career year for the Rangers. Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Alexei Ogando were all solid contributors to the rotation, as well. The bullpen was mostly solid, especially once the team acquired Mike Adams from the Padres mid-season. He set up Neftali Feliz, the Rangers’ closer who had a decent season. Darren Oliver was a nice veteran presence out of the ‘pen, as well. This team had few question marks going into the season and quickly answered any remaining doubts. The rotation was incredibly solid and was often more than enough to win given the team’s potent offense. They ultimately made the playoffs by winning the division, advancing to the World Series, only to lost the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games.<br />
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On deck: Mariners and A's 2012 previewJeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1407739229648111681.post-46366436573898444162012-02-25T09:01:00.001-08:002012-02-25T09:03:40.177-08:00Relief Pitcher Rankings, Pt. II - 2012So you’ve seen the closer rankings and traditional fantasy players must be thinking, “what else is there to say about relievers?” Well, just as the save is a bit of mythical creature, another somewhat recently created stat is finding it’s way into fantasy leagues: the hold. This stat primarily applies to setup men working the 8th, but can be accumulated by good 7th inning guys as well. There aren’t a slew of good setup men, but there are some that are worth owning if your league counts these stats. Here are my top hold-accumulators:<br />
<br />
1. Johnny Venters: the Braves have the best back-end punch of any bullpen with Venters bridging the gap to Kimbrel. He’s a strikeout artist who almost never surrenders the lead. He’s durable and even gets a few saves throughout the year whenever Kimbrel needs a rest.<br />
<br />
2. David Robertson: the Yankees are lucky to have this guy in line should anything happen to Rivera. He k’s a ton of hitters and is absolutely dirty. He forces a ton of grounders whenever players are lucky enough to make contact<br />
<br />
3. Tyler Clippard: while Storen gets the attention, the Nats’ Clippard is arguably their most important reliever. Another high-strikeout guy, he almost never walks anyone. His only problem was allowing 11 homeruns last season, a number he’ll be looking to cut down on in 2012.<br />
<br />
4. Sean Marshall: pitching for a lackluster Cubs squad, Marshall shines bright. He was truly one of the best relievers in the game in 2011, striking out a batter an inning and only issuing 17 walks and one homerun all season. He’s absolutely solid.<br />
<br />
5. Mike Adams: I think we saw just how much Petco was helping Adams once he moved to Arlington mid-season. That’s not say he was bad as a Ranger, he just wasn’t as good. He still strikes out enough batters to hold his own and keeps his walks way down. He’ll pitch a lot for the Rangers this season and get a lot of chances to protect the lead.<br />
<br />
6. Francisco Rodriguez: K-Rod is in the setup role for the Brewers and offers great strikeout potential. If he can limit the walks, all the better. He will get a lot of leads to work with before handing them over to Axford in the ninth. He could also be mid-season trade bait if the Brewers struggle.<br />
<br />
7. Daniel Bard/Mark Melancon: the remade BoSox bullpen features these two young strike-throwers. It’s a little unclear just how these two will fit in at the moment, but both offer upside, especially given the injury potential to Bailey. I like Bard a little more, but Melancon saved 20+ games for the Astros last year. Take your pick here; both should see plenty of hold opportunities.<br />
<br />
8. Eric O’Flaherty: another Atlanta Brave, O’Flaherty is a bit of a specialist but another filthy reliever. He only allowed eight earned runs in nearly 74 innings last year, while striking out nearly a batter per inning.<br />
<br />
9. Joaquin Benoit: setting up Valverde in Detroit, Benoit is a very capable reliever. He gets his strikeouts and keeps his walks down, a recipe for success. Expect him to get a lot of holds and even some save chances is the dicey Valverde should struggle.<br />
<br />
10. Sergio Romo: likely the Giants’ best reliever, Romo strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t issue free passes (only five walks all season in 2011). If the Giants are improved, as I think they’ll be, he will get more holds than he did last year. <br />
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Sleepers<br />
There are a number of relievers that can be had late in drafts or picked up off waiver claims. A pair of young Dodgers look like great late-round pickups in Kenley Jansen and Javy Guerra. Jansen should setup up Guerra in that situation. Fernando Salas was really good for the Cardinals last year, as was Jason Motte. Look for Salas to setup Motte in St. Louis. Addison Reed of the White Sox looks like the real deal and could be a great grab late in drafts, especially if you’re in a keeper-league. David Hernandez of the Diamondbacks was fantastic last year, too, and should be considered as a strong option to rack up holds.<br />
<br />
Stay Away<br />
The main idea here is to stay away from aging relievers with diminishing velocity and/or strikeouts. These would be guys like Francisco Cordero, Kevin Gregg and others. Also, be sure you don’t draft Neftali Feliz an Aroldis Chapman as relievers since they are projected to joining their respective rotations this year. Whether that happens or not is another story, but that’s the current plan. Monitor spring training to verify their situations.Jeff Wiserhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13313626931517427247noreply@blogger.com0