While the mainstream media is playing up the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays have signed Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to one-year deals, a much more important transaction is tearing up the analytical baseball sphere. Long considered an albatross, the contract of Vernon Wells has actually been moved. To where, you may ask? Anaheim, where Goofy roams, there's no debate about what Pluto is (he's a dog, right?), Mickey is still king and dreams come true. For the Angels, however, this offseason has been anything but a dreamland. On Friday they may have just created a nightmare, in fact.
Coming off of a stellar, out-of-this-world 2003 season, the Blue Jays knew they had something in Vernon Wells. After 2006, they knew they had to lock up the budding star long-term. The 2006/7 offseason was a rather tumultuous one, however, with Barry Zito signing his infamous 7/$126 deal with the Giants while the Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano for 8/$136. Given the inflated market of the era, the Blue Jays gave Wells a deal that blew a lot of people away, signing him for seven years and $126 million guaranteed. At that point, he really only had two "outstanding" seasons under his belt. Yes, he played solid defense in centerfield without question, but he had been somewhat up and down with the stick. So why the huge deal? Everyone else was doing it, so why not the Jays? At least that seemed to be the reasoning.
An injury shortened 2008, a disappointing 2009 and a slight bounce-back 2010 later, and the Blue Jays were willing do whatever it took to get out from under what many regarded as the worst contract in baseball. Making matters worse, the contract was severely back-loaded and Wells still has 4 years and $86 million coming his way. That's big money, especially for an aging centerfielder who can't run 'em down like he used to and is inconsistent at the dish. Who in their right mind would trade for this scenario? The Angels, that's who.
After getting spurned by this year's biggest free agents, the Angels were clearly desperate to bring a big name to town. Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre decided against Anaheim and they were never really in the heart of the Cliff Lee negotiations, leaving Anaheim in an unfamiliar position: they were in the middle of an offseason where they didn't make a splash. Instead of inking a big name free agent this time around, they decided to send off the left out Juan Rivera and slugging (and not much else) Mike Napoli in exchange for the completely over-priced Vernon Wells. Well Anaheim, you made your splash, now what?
While Vernon Wells isn't likely to be worth more than about $50 million of his $86 million dollars left on his deal, the Angels are one of the few teams who can actually afford to overpay for a player. This should give them a stellar outfield with Wells likely in left, Peter Bourjos in center and Tori Hunter in right. This also allows the aging and declining Bobby Abreau to fill the DH role for the Angels. Overall, the Angels are stacked and adding Wells only helped that cause, as long as he's productive.
Remember, there's a reason why the Jays didn't want to pay this guy. You never know if you're gonna get the .265/15/65 Vernon Wells or the .305/35/100 version. There's a big difference and as long as he gravitates towards his former all-star self, there won't be a problem. But if he continues to get hurt, fails to hit and doesn't age very well (he'll be 35 in the final year of his deal) then the Angels may be kicking themselves for years to come. They were obviously desperate to get something done, now let's just hope it doesn't come back to haunt them and become a nightmare deal.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Oakland's Offseason Grade: A Of Course!
Quietly, Oakland has done a nice job of building their roster this offseason. While other teams have stolen the headlines, the A's are making low risk moves to bolster a team that already has some solid, young pieces. Last season, Oakland was 81-81 last year, finishing nine games behind the Rangers and holding their own in the division. While they didn't light up the scoreboard and score a ton of runs, they were consistent on the mound with a good nucleus of young starters and a decent bullpen. Apparently Billy Beane isn't satisfied as he's added some pop and helped the pitching staff this winter.
Its been well documented that the A's made a hard run at Adrian Beltre, only to get spurned and see him go to a division rival in Texas. Since they didn't get their "big fish," Oakland has made several smaller additions. They added David Dejesus to play left field, Josh Willingham to play right field and Hideki Matsui to DH. Dejesus could hit second, behind Coco Crisp. A combination of Matsui and Willingham will likely hit fourth and fifth. Its not a "murderer's row" but in the AL West, it will be competitive. Expect Oakland to move up from 11th in the AL in runs scored in 2011.
The pitching staff has seen improvements as well. Brandon McCarthy was recently added and could serve as the fifth starter. While adding a fifth starter isn't exactly earth-shattering news, one has to remember that the A's have a solid core of young pitchers in Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson. Rich Harden will be in the mix, too, depending on his injury situation. The bullpen got help from free agent signee Grant Balfour who came over from the Rays where he's been very impressive. Recent reports are that the A's are moving agressively on lefty veteran Brian Fuentes, as well. They've got an established closer in Andrew Bailey and solid contributors in Craig Breslow and Brad Ziegler. Add Balfour and potentially Fuentes and Oakland may have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
The AL West will be a tougher division in 2011. The Rangers will be very strong again and offensively dangerous. Their pitching will suffer with the loss of Cliff Lee and it will be interesting if CJ Wilson can have a similar season in 2011. The Angels will have Kendry Morales back and should be better this season, too. The Mariners will be weak again but hope to bounce back somewhat and King Felix can shut anybody down. Oakland will have strong chance to contend in 2011 and they haven't had to overly inflate their budget to do it.
Oakland's offseason grade: an A!
Its been well documented that the A's made a hard run at Adrian Beltre, only to get spurned and see him go to a division rival in Texas. Since they didn't get their "big fish," Oakland has made several smaller additions. They added David Dejesus to play left field, Josh Willingham to play right field and Hideki Matsui to DH. Dejesus could hit second, behind Coco Crisp. A combination of Matsui and Willingham will likely hit fourth and fifth. Its not a "murderer's row" but in the AL West, it will be competitive. Expect Oakland to move up from 11th in the AL in runs scored in 2011.
The pitching staff has seen improvements as well. Brandon McCarthy was recently added and could serve as the fifth starter. While adding a fifth starter isn't exactly earth-shattering news, one has to remember that the A's have a solid core of young pitchers in Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson. Rich Harden will be in the mix, too, depending on his injury situation. The bullpen got help from free agent signee Grant Balfour who came over from the Rays where he's been very impressive. Recent reports are that the A's are moving agressively on lefty veteran Brian Fuentes, as well. They've got an established closer in Andrew Bailey and solid contributors in Craig Breslow and Brad Ziegler. Add Balfour and potentially Fuentes and Oakland may have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
The AL West will be a tougher division in 2011. The Rangers will be very strong again and offensively dangerous. Their pitching will suffer with the loss of Cliff Lee and it will be interesting if CJ Wilson can have a similar season in 2011. The Angels will have Kendry Morales back and should be better this season, too. The Mariners will be weak again but hope to bounce back somewhat and King Felix can shut anybody down. Oakland will have strong chance to contend in 2011 and they haven't had to overly inflate their budget to do it.
Oakland's offseason grade: an A!
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Michael Young gets no love!
As the Rangers prepare to overspend on Adrian Beltre out of desperation, one player is taking yet another on for the team. Michael Young is a perennial player. You can count on his numbers like clockwork and he almost never gets seriously injured. Almost anybody would sign up for a .300/.347/.448 line over a ten year period from a middle infielder, yet Young remains one of the most underappreciated players in the league.
It started when Young moved from second base to shortstop when Alex Rodriguez was moved in 2004. Young performed relatively well there despite not having the greatest range in the world. When Elvis Andrus came up in 2009, Young moved from short to third base to make room for the prospect. Now that the Rangers are likely bringing in Beltre, Young will have to move from third base to designated hitter. Even though he's going to be 34 next season, Young has plenty of athleticism to continue at third and is probably moving to DH prematurely.
After losing out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the Rangers seem desperate to make a splash. Beltre will hit with more power than Young and play better defense but isn't likely enough of an upgrade to offset the cost incurred in signing him and the lack of defensive help that the Rangers will experience by taking Young out of the field. While he isn't a magician with the glove, he still has fielding value.
Young is one of the "good guys" of Major League Baseball. He doesn't complain, he doesn't take at-bats off nor show up unready to play. He gets along with his teammates, is a leader in the clubhouse and has played the game with dignity for a decade. Once again he is taking one for the team by shifting to DH before his athleticism declines to the point where he is relinquished to that role. Some franchise players would complain about this and demand a trade or make a scene in the media. Unsurprisingly, Young has remained quiet on the situation and is handling it like a true pro because he thinks it may be the best thing for his team.
Kudos to Michael Young for taking yet another one for the team and being a pro's pro. While he largely goes unnoticed, I appreciate Michael Young in an era of Tweets and Sportscenter. Stay classy, Michael Young.
It started when Young moved from second base to shortstop when Alex Rodriguez was moved in 2004. Young performed relatively well there despite not having the greatest range in the world. When Elvis Andrus came up in 2009, Young moved from short to third base to make room for the prospect. Now that the Rangers are likely bringing in Beltre, Young will have to move from third base to designated hitter. Even though he's going to be 34 next season, Young has plenty of athleticism to continue at third and is probably moving to DH prematurely.
After losing out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the Rangers seem desperate to make a splash. Beltre will hit with more power than Young and play better defense but isn't likely enough of an upgrade to offset the cost incurred in signing him and the lack of defensive help that the Rangers will experience by taking Young out of the field. While he isn't a magician with the glove, he still has fielding value.
Young is one of the "good guys" of Major League Baseball. He doesn't complain, he doesn't take at-bats off nor show up unready to play. He gets along with his teammates, is a leader in the clubhouse and has played the game with dignity for a decade. Once again he is taking one for the team by shifting to DH before his athleticism declines to the point where he is relinquished to that role. Some franchise players would complain about this and demand a trade or make a scene in the media. Unsurprisingly, Young has remained quiet on the situation and is handling it like a true pro because he thinks it may be the best thing for his team.
Kudos to Michael Young for taking yet another one for the team and being a pro's pro. While he largely goes unnoticed, I appreciate Michael Young in an era of Tweets and Sportscenter. Stay classy, Michael Young.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
At Least The Nationals Are Trying
When baseball once again found a permanent home in the Nation's capitol, it was a great day for Major League Baseball. Then the Nationals showed up. Coming from Montreal where the Expos had been a perennial laughing stock, the franchise clearly had some rebuilding to do. While it's been ugly at times, the Washington Nationals are becoming relevant again and its definitely a good thing. America's game should be well represented in Washington D.C. and the Nationals may be just be pulling this off in the near future.
Potential is a word that is way overused in sports discussion. In it's purest form, potential simply means that a positive outcome may result from a particular situation. What isn't stated is that a negative outcome may also result from that same situation. This is why its important to note that the Nationals are trying to become relevant in baseball again, because of their potential, but refrain from making predictions about their win-loss totals in the near future. Washington is loaded with potential and could soon be a major player in the National League. Unfortunately, they could also squander it away, have players fail to perform or become perpetually injured and never show up on the radar. Potential is a dangerous word.
Focussing on what could go right, the Nationals are in good position to start contending. While they will be a player in the NL East in 2011, the team could be very dangerous in 2012. Phenom Stephen Strasburg will miss 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow, but should be lighting up the radar gun in 2012. Top pick Bryce Harper could also be playing in the bigs by then, depending on how he performs in the minor in 2011. He's young but extremely talented and should move the system quickly. Young players like Nyjer Morgan (OF), Drew Storen (RP), Ian Desmond (SS), Danny Espinosa (2B) and Roger Bernadina (OF) should help bring up the talent level of the Nationals all over the field.
Adding to the infusion of talent are free agent acquisitions Jayson Werth (OF) and Adam LaRoche (1B). These two give the Nationals the power options they've been missing. When added to All-Star third basemen Ryan Zimmerman, these two high-profile free agents give Washington a solid core of proven players. This team is loaded with offensive talent and should score a ton of runs this season, especially if they can get the first two batters of the lineup, likely Morgan and Desmond, on base with regularity.
The problems lie within the pitching staff. Strasburgh won't be pitching this season so the rotation will be thin on talent. Livan Hernandez is an innings-eater but not a true ace by any means. Jason Marquis can be good if healthy but after signing with Washington before the 2010 season and then pitching to a 2-9 record with a 6+ ERA before being shut down for the season by injury, its safe to say he was a disappointment. If he doesn't bounce back this year, it will definitely hurt the Nationals ability to contend. Jordan Zimmerman has talent but is young and unproven while John Lannan is inconsistent. Washington is a still a contender for Carl Pavano and this would be a big help for the young Washington rotation.
The bullpen has gotten better for Washington with Drew Storen helping shore things up. Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett, who recently signed an extention, have also helped the Nationals hold onto late-game leads. Chien-Ming Wang is a reclamation project that could help if he resurrects his career with Washington, which is a long shot but worth the gamble. Doug Slaten helps round things out and solidify the bullpen. While they could definitely use a dominant late-inning arm, the Nationals are in decent shape.
If they land Pavano, which I would say is a 50/50 proposition at this point, the future lineup and rotation could look like this:
1. Nyjer Morgan (CF)
2. Ian Desmond (SS)
3. Jayson Werth (RF)
4. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
5. Adam LaRoche (1B)
6. Roger Bernandina (LF)
7. Ivan Rodriguez (C)
8. Danny Espinosa (2B)
9. Pitcher
This lineup will definitely score runs. If and when Harper comes up, which is a risky thing to try to predict since he hasn't played much pro ball yet, I would expect Werth to move to left field and Harper to take over in right, replacing Bernadina in the lineup. With Pavano and Strasburg in the mix, the rotation should look like this:
1. Carl Pavano (R)
2. Stephen Strasburg (R)
3. Livan Hernandez (R)
4. John Lannan (L)
5. Jordan Zimmerman (R)
The thing that jumps out immediately is the lack of left-handed starting pitching. Jason Marquis' deal ends at the end of 2011 and I don't foresee him being brought back. Hernandez will also be a free agent after 2011 but the Nationals could try to retain him.
If the Nationals can land Pavano, get Strasburg healthy and not see dropoff from key producers (R. Zimmerman, Werth, Morgan and LaRoche), they will be a force to be reckoned with in 2012, if not sooner. For a while there, Washington was just plain terrible. Progress is being made and the Nationals are full of potential. While nothing is set in stone, at least the Nationals are trying.
Potential is a word that is way overused in sports discussion. In it's purest form, potential simply means that a positive outcome may result from a particular situation. What isn't stated is that a negative outcome may also result from that same situation. This is why its important to note that the Nationals are trying to become relevant in baseball again, because of their potential, but refrain from making predictions about their win-loss totals in the near future. Washington is loaded with potential and could soon be a major player in the National League. Unfortunately, they could also squander it away, have players fail to perform or become perpetually injured and never show up on the radar. Potential is a dangerous word.
Focussing on what could go right, the Nationals are in good position to start contending. While they will be a player in the NL East in 2011, the team could be very dangerous in 2012. Phenom Stephen Strasburg will miss 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow, but should be lighting up the radar gun in 2012. Top pick Bryce Harper could also be playing in the bigs by then, depending on how he performs in the minor in 2011. He's young but extremely talented and should move the system quickly. Young players like Nyjer Morgan (OF), Drew Storen (RP), Ian Desmond (SS), Danny Espinosa (2B) and Roger Bernadina (OF) should help bring up the talent level of the Nationals all over the field.
Adding to the infusion of talent are free agent acquisitions Jayson Werth (OF) and Adam LaRoche (1B). These two give the Nationals the power options they've been missing. When added to All-Star third basemen Ryan Zimmerman, these two high-profile free agents give Washington a solid core of proven players. This team is loaded with offensive talent and should score a ton of runs this season, especially if they can get the first two batters of the lineup, likely Morgan and Desmond, on base with regularity.
The problems lie within the pitching staff. Strasburgh won't be pitching this season so the rotation will be thin on talent. Livan Hernandez is an innings-eater but not a true ace by any means. Jason Marquis can be good if healthy but after signing with Washington before the 2010 season and then pitching to a 2-9 record with a 6+ ERA before being shut down for the season by injury, its safe to say he was a disappointment. If he doesn't bounce back this year, it will definitely hurt the Nationals ability to contend. Jordan Zimmerman has talent but is young and unproven while John Lannan is inconsistent. Washington is a still a contender for Carl Pavano and this would be a big help for the young Washington rotation.
The bullpen has gotten better for Washington with Drew Storen helping shore things up. Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett, who recently signed an extention, have also helped the Nationals hold onto late-game leads. Chien-Ming Wang is a reclamation project that could help if he resurrects his career with Washington, which is a long shot but worth the gamble. Doug Slaten helps round things out and solidify the bullpen. While they could definitely use a dominant late-inning arm, the Nationals are in decent shape.
If they land Pavano, which I would say is a 50/50 proposition at this point, the future lineup and rotation could look like this:
1. Nyjer Morgan (CF)
2. Ian Desmond (SS)
3. Jayson Werth (RF)
4. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
5. Adam LaRoche (1B)
6. Roger Bernandina (LF)
7. Ivan Rodriguez (C)
8. Danny Espinosa (2B)
9. Pitcher
This lineup will definitely score runs. If and when Harper comes up, which is a risky thing to try to predict since he hasn't played much pro ball yet, I would expect Werth to move to left field and Harper to take over in right, replacing Bernadina in the lineup. With Pavano and Strasburg in the mix, the rotation should look like this:
1. Carl Pavano (R)
2. Stephen Strasburg (R)
3. Livan Hernandez (R)
4. John Lannan (L)
5. Jordan Zimmerman (R)
The thing that jumps out immediately is the lack of left-handed starting pitching. Jason Marquis' deal ends at the end of 2011 and I don't foresee him being brought back. Hernandez will also be a free agent after 2011 but the Nationals could try to retain him.
If the Nationals can land Pavano, get Strasburg healthy and not see dropoff from key producers (R. Zimmerman, Werth, Morgan and LaRoche), they will be a force to be reckoned with in 2012, if not sooner. For a while there, Washington was just plain terrible. Progress is being made and the Nationals are full of potential. While nothing is set in stone, at least the Nationals are trying.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Lee in Philly? Raise your hand if saw that coming!
Utterly stunned. Speechless. Totally shocked. Amazed. Blown away.
These are all reactions that were had when Cliff Lee announced his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies over the Yankees and Rangers. Ever since this process started, New York and Texas were seen as the only "realistic" landing spots for the ace. Sure, the Nats made their pitch but it wasn't taken all that seriously. As time passed and the winter meeting ended, rumors of a third team, a "mystery team" or "darkhorse" if you will, have been quietly fluttering around. I, for one, thought that a true third contender didn't really exist. If anything, I thought it might be a team that was merely looking to push the price up on the Rangers and Yankees, forcing them to match this "mystery team's" offer. Little did I know, or really anyone for that matter, that the "darkhorse" was real and in fact, the team that would wind up taking the cake.
Its not often that the Yankees don't get what they want. The Rangers have had their share of heartbreak but also success (see: Nolan Ryan). Lee spurned both of these clubs and turned down more guaranteed money in order to return to the Phils. Why would he do this, especially after they traded him away to Seattle almost one year ago today? Because that's where he wanted to play and where he felt like he could win. Not money, not fame, Cliff Lee wants to win a World Series. In an era where players like Jayson Werth get $126 million dollar contracts, Cliff Lee is a breath of fresh air. When traded to Seattle in the winter of '09, he commented how he was disappointed with the trade because he wanted to retire as a member of the Phillies. Well Cliff, that's again a possiblilty. Congratulations.
As for Philadelphia, they have undoubtably the best rotation in baseball. Halladay will still be their ace, Lee will take the two spot, Oswalt the three and Cole Hamels the fourth spot in the rotation. The team is actively trying to move Joe Blanton and his salary so the fifth spot will be up for grabs but probably end up going to developing pro Kyle Kendrick. Despite sending Jayson Werth packing, the Phillies will be the favorites in the N.L. East for sure. Domonic Brown will take over in RF and, unless they find someone to take on Ibanez' salary, Raul will play LF with Victorino in CF. The infield will be the same Howard, Utley, Rollins and Planco. Ruiz wil remain behind the plate and Phillies look awfully good on paper. A few less runs scored, no doubt, but far fewer runs surrendered. Good luck Marlins, Mets, Braves and Nationals. Your fate may already be sealed!
These are all reactions that were had when Cliff Lee announced his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies over the Yankees and Rangers. Ever since this process started, New York and Texas were seen as the only "realistic" landing spots for the ace. Sure, the Nats made their pitch but it wasn't taken all that seriously. As time passed and the winter meeting ended, rumors of a third team, a "mystery team" or "darkhorse" if you will, have been quietly fluttering around. I, for one, thought that a true third contender didn't really exist. If anything, I thought it might be a team that was merely looking to push the price up on the Rangers and Yankees, forcing them to match this "mystery team's" offer. Little did I know, or really anyone for that matter, that the "darkhorse" was real and in fact, the team that would wind up taking the cake.
Its not often that the Yankees don't get what they want. The Rangers have had their share of heartbreak but also success (see: Nolan Ryan). Lee spurned both of these clubs and turned down more guaranteed money in order to return to the Phils. Why would he do this, especially after they traded him away to Seattle almost one year ago today? Because that's where he wanted to play and where he felt like he could win. Not money, not fame, Cliff Lee wants to win a World Series. In an era where players like Jayson Werth get $126 million dollar contracts, Cliff Lee is a breath of fresh air. When traded to Seattle in the winter of '09, he commented how he was disappointed with the trade because he wanted to retire as a member of the Phillies. Well Cliff, that's again a possiblilty. Congratulations.
As for Philadelphia, they have undoubtably the best rotation in baseball. Halladay will still be their ace, Lee will take the two spot, Oswalt the three and Cole Hamels the fourth spot in the rotation. The team is actively trying to move Joe Blanton and his salary so the fifth spot will be up for grabs but probably end up going to developing pro Kyle Kendrick. Despite sending Jayson Werth packing, the Phillies will be the favorites in the N.L. East for sure. Domonic Brown will take over in RF and, unless they find someone to take on Ibanez' salary, Raul will play LF with Victorino in CF. The infield will be the same Howard, Utley, Rollins and Planco. Ruiz wil remain behind the plate and Phillies look awfully good on paper. A few less runs scored, no doubt, but far fewer runs surrendered. Good luck Marlins, Mets, Braves and Nationals. Your fate may already be sealed!
Sunday, December 12, 2010
So Far, So Strange?
If you remember a recent post titled, "Hurry Up and Wait (Part 1&2), I tried to pick the likely landing spot of the top players that would (free agents) or might (trade candidates) be on the move. Let's see how I did, shall we?
10. Matt Kemp (CF) LAD
At the time, rumors were swirling that the Dodgers might be tempted to move their young, athletic, embattled center fielder. I promptly squashed this one and I'm glad I did. It seems that about as soon as this idea got off its feet, it disappeared. Wise move on the part of the Dodgers. Kemp could become truly elite if he realizes his potential and, even if he doesn't, he still possess the talent to be well above average.
9. Adam Dunn (1B/LF/DH) FA
When I wrote the previous article, Dunn had just hit free agency. The defensively-challenged slugger made the right call, moving from the National League to the DH-friendly American League. I predicted the right city but not the right team as I guessed the Cubs and Dunn ultimately signed with the White Sox. One reason why I didn't see this one coming was because the White Sox were expected to, and eventually did, re-sign All-Star first baseman Paul Konerko. Because of this, Chicago will have to use Dunn at the DH spot exclusively.
8. Adrian Gonzalez (1B) SD
The long time infatuation that the Red Sox had for the San Diego slugger finally came to fruition. The Sox pulled off arguably the most surprising move of the offseason when they acquired Gonzalez from teh Padres in exchange for three prospects and a player to be named later. While this appears to be a clear-cut salary dump for a small market team, and I suppose it mostly is, the Padres got excellent return in the deal, centered around Casey Kelley (a stellar pitching prospect). They also obtained Anthony Rizzo (a strong first baseman with the major written all over him), almost ensuring that Gonzalez will have a replacement shortly. While I fully expected Boston to make a hard push for him, I predicted that San Diego would once again fail to deal Gonzalez. Needless to say, this one got my attention!
7. Rafael Soriano (CP) FA
It's been widely known that the Rays are shedding payroll this offseason and Soriano was going to be a casualty of this action. My prediction was that Soriano would land in either Chicago (White Sox) or Anaheim. The Angels are clearly out of the mix because of their surprising move to sign a 35 year-old Scott Downs to a three year deal while the White Sox still remain a viable option. Jerry Riensdorf has already shown that he's willing to spend money this offseason (signing Dunn, Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski) and the back end of their bullpen is still incomplete since Bobby Jenks isn't coming back. This one is still up in the air but Soriano's market is shrinking. At this point, I'm betting on the Southside.
6. Adrian Beltre (3B) FA
Similarly to Soriano, Beltre has seen his market shrink following his re-breakout season in Boston. The Red Sox are moving on without him, the Orioles (my pick) went another direction (Mark Reynolds), the Tigers are spending their money elsewhere (Victor Martinez, possibly Magglio Ordonez) and the Cardinals are focussing on extending Pujols rather than signing overpriced, aging free agents. The Oakland A's have been in contact with Beltre and it appears that they are his only option at the moment. The Angels are still rumored to be in the mix but either way, it looks like Beltre won't be getting the cash he expected and he will likely end up back in the AL West, which doesn't suit him well (see Seattle Mariners).
5. Jayson Werth (RF) FA
Coming off a big season, Werth was expected to cash in big time and he certainly didn't disappoint. The Washington Nationals added the outfielder with a seven-year, $126 million contract. Considering that Werth is 31 and is just now playing exceptionally well, it appears that the Nats overpaid big time for a slugger who will undoubtably underachieve in the latter half of his contract. Somehow I predicted this one correctly, but I never expected him to receive the deal he got. Of course, neither did anyone else. Seven years is just too much for someone his age and the Nats will likely pay the price.
4. Prince Fielder (1B) MIL
Similarly to Kemp, I predicted that Fielder would be dangled but not traded. Indeed, talks around Prince have fallen off almost completely and the Brewers are saying that they won't be moving the slugger even though he is about to hit his contract year and an extension is unlikely. Expected Prince to be with the Brewers until at least the trade deadline.
3. Zack Greinke (SP) KC
Trade rumors around Greinke remain in play but I predicted that he would stay put and he is still a Royal, at least right now. Should the Yankees lose out on their number one target, Cliff Lee, they will likely make a big push for the Royals' ace. The Yankees are the only team that appears to be willing to part with the pieces to make a deal for Greinke an actual possibility. I got this one right, for now...
2. Carl Crawford (LF) FA
With speed to burn and a flare for making flashy plays, I couldn't see Carl Crawford going anywhere besides the Anaheim Angles. Apparently, neither could the Angels since they were shocked when the deal they were working out with Crawford fell through in the eleventh hour and he jumped across the AL East and wound up with the Red Sox. Boston was known to be a candidate but I expected them to pursue Werth more than Crawford. This deal, added to the earlier trade for Gonzalez, makes Boston the clear winner of the winter. Can they transfer that to the diamond?
1. Cliff Lee (SP) FA
The biggest fish in the pond is still swimming at the moment. Lee hasn't made a decision yet and it has baseball holding its collective breath. It appears to be a two team race with an unknown "darkhorse" lurking in the background. Currently, the Rangers and Yankees have the upper hand and it is believed to be between these two, as I guessed it would be. My prediction was that he would choose the Rangers and I still hope he does for a few reasons: it seems like a better fit for him (he's a country boy) and he wouldn't be pitching for Team Evil. Yes that means I would have to watch him carve up my Mariners a few times a year but I want to see some Fexlix Hernandez v. Cliff Lee matchups! I'm sticking with my prediction: the Rangers will lock him up with a seven year deal worth somewhere in the $155-165 million range.
Overall, I have four correct predictions with a chance to make it six (if Soriano ends up with the White Sox and Lee picks Texas). Not bad, I have to say, despite some earth-shattering deals that appeared to be longshots (Gonzalez to the Red Sox, Crawford in
Boston also). The winter is one of the best times to be a baseball fan!
10. Matt Kemp (CF) LAD
At the time, rumors were swirling that the Dodgers might be tempted to move their young, athletic, embattled center fielder. I promptly squashed this one and I'm glad I did. It seems that about as soon as this idea got off its feet, it disappeared. Wise move on the part of the Dodgers. Kemp could become truly elite if he realizes his potential and, even if he doesn't, he still possess the talent to be well above average.
9. Adam Dunn (1B/LF/DH) FA
When I wrote the previous article, Dunn had just hit free agency. The defensively-challenged slugger made the right call, moving from the National League to the DH-friendly American League. I predicted the right city but not the right team as I guessed the Cubs and Dunn ultimately signed with the White Sox. One reason why I didn't see this one coming was because the White Sox were expected to, and eventually did, re-sign All-Star first baseman Paul Konerko. Because of this, Chicago will have to use Dunn at the DH spot exclusively.
8. Adrian Gonzalez (1B) SD
The long time infatuation that the Red Sox had for the San Diego slugger finally came to fruition. The Sox pulled off arguably the most surprising move of the offseason when they acquired Gonzalez from teh Padres in exchange for three prospects and a player to be named later. While this appears to be a clear-cut salary dump for a small market team, and I suppose it mostly is, the Padres got excellent return in the deal, centered around Casey Kelley (a stellar pitching prospect). They also obtained Anthony Rizzo (a strong first baseman with the major written all over him), almost ensuring that Gonzalez will have a replacement shortly. While I fully expected Boston to make a hard push for him, I predicted that San Diego would once again fail to deal Gonzalez. Needless to say, this one got my attention!
7. Rafael Soriano (CP) FA
It's been widely known that the Rays are shedding payroll this offseason and Soriano was going to be a casualty of this action. My prediction was that Soriano would land in either Chicago (White Sox) or Anaheim. The Angels are clearly out of the mix because of their surprising move to sign a 35 year-old Scott Downs to a three year deal while the White Sox still remain a viable option. Jerry Riensdorf has already shown that he's willing to spend money this offseason (signing Dunn, Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski) and the back end of their bullpen is still incomplete since Bobby Jenks isn't coming back. This one is still up in the air but Soriano's market is shrinking. At this point, I'm betting on the Southside.
6. Adrian Beltre (3B) FA
Similarly to Soriano, Beltre has seen his market shrink following his re-breakout season in Boston. The Red Sox are moving on without him, the Orioles (my pick) went another direction (Mark Reynolds), the Tigers are spending their money elsewhere (Victor Martinez, possibly Magglio Ordonez) and the Cardinals are focussing on extending Pujols rather than signing overpriced, aging free agents. The Oakland A's have been in contact with Beltre and it appears that they are his only option at the moment. The Angels are still rumored to be in the mix but either way, it looks like Beltre won't be getting the cash he expected and he will likely end up back in the AL West, which doesn't suit him well (see Seattle Mariners).
5. Jayson Werth (RF) FA
Coming off a big season, Werth was expected to cash in big time and he certainly didn't disappoint. The Washington Nationals added the outfielder with a seven-year, $126 million contract. Considering that Werth is 31 and is just now playing exceptionally well, it appears that the Nats overpaid big time for a slugger who will undoubtably underachieve in the latter half of his contract. Somehow I predicted this one correctly, but I never expected him to receive the deal he got. Of course, neither did anyone else. Seven years is just too much for someone his age and the Nats will likely pay the price.
4. Prince Fielder (1B) MIL
Similarly to Kemp, I predicted that Fielder would be dangled but not traded. Indeed, talks around Prince have fallen off almost completely and the Brewers are saying that they won't be moving the slugger even though he is about to hit his contract year and an extension is unlikely. Expected Prince to be with the Brewers until at least the trade deadline.
3. Zack Greinke (SP) KC
Trade rumors around Greinke remain in play but I predicted that he would stay put and he is still a Royal, at least right now. Should the Yankees lose out on their number one target, Cliff Lee, they will likely make a big push for the Royals' ace. The Yankees are the only team that appears to be willing to part with the pieces to make a deal for Greinke an actual possibility. I got this one right, for now...
2. Carl Crawford (LF) FA
With speed to burn and a flare for making flashy plays, I couldn't see Carl Crawford going anywhere besides the Anaheim Angles. Apparently, neither could the Angels since they were shocked when the deal they were working out with Crawford fell through in the eleventh hour and he jumped across the AL East and wound up with the Red Sox. Boston was known to be a candidate but I expected them to pursue Werth more than Crawford. This deal, added to the earlier trade for Gonzalez, makes Boston the clear winner of the winter. Can they transfer that to the diamond?
1. Cliff Lee (SP) FA
The biggest fish in the pond is still swimming at the moment. Lee hasn't made a decision yet and it has baseball holding its collective breath. It appears to be a two team race with an unknown "darkhorse" lurking in the background. Currently, the Rangers and Yankees have the upper hand and it is believed to be between these two, as I guessed it would be. My prediction was that he would choose the Rangers and I still hope he does for a few reasons: it seems like a better fit for him (he's a country boy) and he wouldn't be pitching for Team Evil. Yes that means I would have to watch him carve up my Mariners a few times a year but I want to see some Fexlix Hernandez v. Cliff Lee matchups! I'm sticking with my prediction: the Rangers will lock him up with a seven year deal worth somewhere in the $155-165 million range.
Overall, I have four correct predictions with a chance to make it six (if Soriano ends up with the White Sox and Lee picks Texas). Not bad, I have to say, despite some earth-shattering deals that appeared to be longshots (Gonzalez to the Red Sox, Crawford in
Boston also). The winter is one of the best times to be a baseball fan!
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Werth's Worth, Jeter Gets Nasty and Pujols for President?
Wow, what a start to the Winter Meetings as the Hot Stove is absolutely roaring right now! The biggest deal to go down and the biggest name to land a big deal, Jayson Werth, got settled early on. Werth agreed to a seven year deal worth $126 million with the Washington Nationals, marking the biggest splash the Nats have ever made and the third richest outfielder contract in MLB history (although Carl Crawford's eventual deal with probably be larger). The crazy part of this deal is the fact that it is seven years in length, which is rather long for anybody, let alone a 31 year-old outfielder who has really only had one truly great season ('10) and one other that could be classified as quite good ('09). This could be a great move for the Nats if Jayson continues to post huge seasons through his mid 30's and doesn't decline sharply after the age of 35. If he fizzles, he will be impossible to trade because his salary is so massive, a la Vernon Wells. Mix this with that fact that he is blocking Bryce Harper's defensive position and will likely have to move to left field and we are left scratching our heads. Do the Nats really have a plan or are they just trying to sell out the park every night? Hopefully the answer is both. Likely its not.
Derek Jeter had to end up a Yankee in the end and everyone knew it. In fact, Jeter said he wanted to stay in pinstripes all along so this wasn't really any mystery. So why did things get nasty between him and the Yanks? Jeter's value has been declining, especially in 2010, but he didn't want to take a paycut when he re-signed. Derek had been making roughly $22 million for the last five years and was reluctant to let that number go and early rumors indicated that he wanted to continue making A-Rod money. The Yankees knew they had no competition to re-sign him so they were more interested in paying him based on his current value rather than his past value. The pair settled on a more "reasonable" number around $17 million per season for three years with a player option for a fourth. Jeter has made no bones about it that he is rather upset that the negotiations became public. This is really his own problem, though, since he was so unwilling to back down from his huge demands until the Yanks went public and used his image against him to get him back to a workable contract. Sorry Derek, but this is what most guys have to go through. Here's to guessing that Jeter hated his first (and presumably) las time being a free agent.
While it may have been laughable that Jeter expected to continue making A-Rod money, one player that also expects those dollars and actually deserves them is Albert Pujols. The Machine has been consistently raking for nearly a decade and playing Gold Glove defense as well. He's signed through 2011 and the Cardinals almost have to keep him in St. Louis, much like Jeter had to stay in New York. He's an icon with the Cardinals and it would be just plain weird to see him play anywhere else. A-Rod signed a 10 year, $275 million contract in 2007 and there's no reason to believe that Pujols won't get something close to that. In fact, Pujols has been consistently more productive than A-Rod over the course of the last decade. The problem with that is that Pujols occupies a much larger portion of the Cardinals payroll than does A-Rod with the Yankees, making it difficult for St. Louis to put enough players around Albert to keep them contenders. Pujols is easily worth $25-$30 million per season and I'm guessing he gets something in the neighborhood of 8 years and $230 million. Whenever it happens, it will be a well-deserved deal despite its gargantuan size and when it goes down, the people of St. Louis will undoubtably dance in the street and chant "Pujols for President!"
Derek Jeter had to end up a Yankee in the end and everyone knew it. In fact, Jeter said he wanted to stay in pinstripes all along so this wasn't really any mystery. So why did things get nasty between him and the Yanks? Jeter's value has been declining, especially in 2010, but he didn't want to take a paycut when he re-signed. Derek had been making roughly $22 million for the last five years and was reluctant to let that number go and early rumors indicated that he wanted to continue making A-Rod money. The Yankees knew they had no competition to re-sign him so they were more interested in paying him based on his current value rather than his past value. The pair settled on a more "reasonable" number around $17 million per season for three years with a player option for a fourth. Jeter has made no bones about it that he is rather upset that the negotiations became public. This is really his own problem, though, since he was so unwilling to back down from his huge demands until the Yanks went public and used his image against him to get him back to a workable contract. Sorry Derek, but this is what most guys have to go through. Here's to guessing that Jeter hated his first (and presumably) las time being a free agent.
While it may have been laughable that Jeter expected to continue making A-Rod money, one player that also expects those dollars and actually deserves them is Albert Pujols. The Machine has been consistently raking for nearly a decade and playing Gold Glove defense as well. He's signed through 2011 and the Cardinals almost have to keep him in St. Louis, much like Jeter had to stay in New York. He's an icon with the Cardinals and it would be just plain weird to see him play anywhere else. A-Rod signed a 10 year, $275 million contract in 2007 and there's no reason to believe that Pujols won't get something close to that. In fact, Pujols has been consistently more productive than A-Rod over the course of the last decade. The problem with that is that Pujols occupies a much larger portion of the Cardinals payroll than does A-Rod with the Yankees, making it difficult for St. Louis to put enough players around Albert to keep them contenders. Pujols is easily worth $25-$30 million per season and I'm guessing he gets something in the neighborhood of 8 years and $230 million. Whenever it happens, it will be a well-deserved deal despite its gargantuan size and when it goes down, the people of St. Louis will undoubtably dance in the street and chant "Pujols for President!"
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)