What a quick and strange trip it's been. Just a few years back, critics were teasing the NL West by referring to the division as the "NL Worst" since the division struggled to have any team from the division finish with a winning record. Most wondered how a team could make the playoffs when they barely won more than 81 games. The Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, Rockies and Dodgers meddled in mediocrity and, no matter who seemed to squeak by the rest, they were dead meat once they arrived to the postseason party. As I'm getting quite tired of hearing Lee Corso say on College Gameday every Saturday morning, "Not so fast, my friend!"
The former worst division in all of baseball has quickly become baseball's most competitive division from top to bottom. In 2008, the Dodger snuck into the playoff by winning a paltry 84 games while the Diamondbacks were somewhat "hot" on their tail by finishing with 82 wins on the season. In case your wondering, those are winning percentages of .519 and .506, respectively. During the same season, 84 wins would have placed the division-winning Dodgers in fifth place if they were in the NL Central instead of the appropriately named NL Worst. Believe it or not, the division was actually less competitive in 2005 when only one team, the Padres, posted a winning season by coming out ahead in 82 of the team's 162 contests, only one game over .500. During that very same season, the entire NL East finished with better records, save the Washington Nationals who won only 81 games on the year, just one short of the division-winning Padres. You clearly get the point, the National League West clearly earned the moniker of the "NL Worst".
With October 2010 just around the corner and the magic of the playoffs in the air, the super-competitive NL West is the only division race still going on. In fact, three teams are still in the hunt for the division crown and the NL Wild Card. The Giants are narrowly ahead of the Padres by one game with each team having five games left in the season. Three of those five games are against one another and will likely decide who wins the division. The Colorado Rockies aren't far off the pace and, if either the Giants or Padres get exceptionally hot and sweep one another, the Rockies may be able to sneak into second and take the Wild Card, thanks in large part to a faltering Atlanta Braves team that is fading fast in the NL East. The Rockies will have to do their best to sweep the Cardinals in their final series of the season and overcome their terrible 31-46 road record to do so. As it stands now, it appears that either the Giants or the Padres will win the division with the second place finisher settling for the Wild Card.
As mentioned above, the final series of the season will see the Giants face off against the Padres at AT&T Park in San Francisco with a division crown on the line. NL West supremacy will be up for grabs and, with this being the only race yet to be declared, nearly all of the baseball world will likely be watching. Who would have though this would be the case just a few years back? The Phillies and Reds know that they cannot afford to take either of these teams lying down since both have capable pitching to go along with scrappy, timely offenses. If you turn on your TV set this weekend to watch a little baseball, like most other baseball-loving Americans, you'll notice a fantastic is ripe for the taking. And if you pay close attention to these teams you'll clearly know that you're not watching the NL Worst anymore. In fact, you could now refer to it as the NL First.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Does it Matter Who Wins?
When one sees a question like this, and if you're self-respecting fan, one has to answer, "Hell yes!" But in the instance of the World Series looming ahead of us this year, do any of the potential National League teams have the talent and ability to beat the potential American League champs? The answer is yes, but its a tentative yes at best. Here's why:
First of all, we have to identify just who the National League champs will need to beat to win the World Series. In the AL West, Texas is all but certain to take the title. Oakland has made a nice little run lately but Texas, with a healthy Cliff Lee back in the rotation, the Rangers should finish the season atop the standings. In the Central, it looks like the Twins have a stranglehold on the division. The White Sox have done all they can to keep it close but, barring a epic collapse, Minnesota will likely hang on to represent the AL Central in the postseason. The AL East is home to tightest matchup to determine a division. At the moment, the Yankees have a half-game lead over the Rays. This one is a toss up but with a healthy A-Rod back in the lineup, New York seems likely to hold onto the division. Tampa Bay, however, has a large lead in the Wild Card standings and will almost certainly still make the postseason. In the end, the AL should be represented by Texas, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay.
These four teams area all solid. They are all home to strong postseason rotations and have powerful offenses. Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, CC Sabathia and David Price are all legitimate aces that have the ability to shut down the opponent. Behind them are a host of young, up-an-coming arms that have posted solid seasons and can provide stability each respective team's rotation. Texas is lead by Nelson Cruz and Vladamir Guerrero, Minnesota by Joe Mauer, New York by Mark Texiera, A-Rod and Robinson Cano while Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria provides the pop that makes the Rays go. Each team has the ability to score a ton of runs on the opponent and still play solid defense. The National League champs will be up against a tall order no matter who they face.
On the NL side of the equation, the races are much tighter. Only the Cincinnati Reds have a virtual lock on their division by being a surprising seven games up on the Cardinals. In the West, San Diego has weathered the storm and emerged from their slump to right the ship and are locked in a battle with the San Francisco. This race could go either way. San Diego has significantly overachieved this season and they could falter down the stretch while the Giants have made several roster additions to attempt to improve their offense but it may not be enough. In the East, The Phillies have once again got hot (and healthy) at the right time and have evened up the division against the Atlanta Braves. The nod has to go to the Phillies in this race with the presence of Halladay and the dynamic Philly offense. Atlanta is fading fast and just doesn't have the firepower to keep up so they will most likely have to battle with a few teams for the Wild Card.
In the end, I believe that the Phillies will take the East, the Giants will win the West, the Reds will hold onto the Central while the Padres (or Rockies) will take the Wild Card. If this is the case, only the Phillies and Reds have the ability to really challenge any of the American League playoff teams. These two teams can score runs in bunches and have enough pitching to keep the opponent in-check. Now these rotations aren't exactly stifling but can be effective. Roy Halladay is probably the only ace amongst the group but the bullpen of the Reds is quite impressive while the Phillies' 'pen is effective at times, as well. Joey Votto is a legitimate MVP candidate while the Phillies order with Howard, Utley and Werth in the middle should scare anybody.
So, does it really matter who emerges with the National League pennant? Of course it does, but they will still be considered the underdog regardless of who comes out of the American League. The AL teams are simply too powerful on paper to make any of the NL teams look like juggernauts. Only the Reds and Phillies have a realistic chance at taking down the rotation-rich, offense-minded American League pennant winner. Look for the American league to capture yet another World Series title in October.
First of all, we have to identify just who the National League champs will need to beat to win the World Series. In the AL West, Texas is all but certain to take the title. Oakland has made a nice little run lately but Texas, with a healthy Cliff Lee back in the rotation, the Rangers should finish the season atop the standings. In the Central, it looks like the Twins have a stranglehold on the division. The White Sox have done all they can to keep it close but, barring a epic collapse, Minnesota will likely hang on to represent the AL Central in the postseason. The AL East is home to tightest matchup to determine a division. At the moment, the Yankees have a half-game lead over the Rays. This one is a toss up but with a healthy A-Rod back in the lineup, New York seems likely to hold onto the division. Tampa Bay, however, has a large lead in the Wild Card standings and will almost certainly still make the postseason. In the end, the AL should be represented by Texas, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay.
These four teams area all solid. They are all home to strong postseason rotations and have powerful offenses. Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, CC Sabathia and David Price are all legitimate aces that have the ability to shut down the opponent. Behind them are a host of young, up-an-coming arms that have posted solid seasons and can provide stability each respective team's rotation. Texas is lead by Nelson Cruz and Vladamir Guerrero, Minnesota by Joe Mauer, New York by Mark Texiera, A-Rod and Robinson Cano while Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria provides the pop that makes the Rays go. Each team has the ability to score a ton of runs on the opponent and still play solid defense. The National League champs will be up against a tall order no matter who they face.
On the NL side of the equation, the races are much tighter. Only the Cincinnati Reds have a virtual lock on their division by being a surprising seven games up on the Cardinals. In the West, San Diego has weathered the storm and emerged from their slump to right the ship and are locked in a battle with the San Francisco. This race could go either way. San Diego has significantly overachieved this season and they could falter down the stretch while the Giants have made several roster additions to attempt to improve their offense but it may not be enough. In the East, The Phillies have once again got hot (and healthy) at the right time and have evened up the division against the Atlanta Braves. The nod has to go to the Phillies in this race with the presence of Halladay and the dynamic Philly offense. Atlanta is fading fast and just doesn't have the firepower to keep up so they will most likely have to battle with a few teams for the Wild Card.
In the end, I believe that the Phillies will take the East, the Giants will win the West, the Reds will hold onto the Central while the Padres (or Rockies) will take the Wild Card. If this is the case, only the Phillies and Reds have the ability to really challenge any of the American League playoff teams. These two teams can score runs in bunches and have enough pitching to keep the opponent in-check. Now these rotations aren't exactly stifling but can be effective. Roy Halladay is probably the only ace amongst the group but the bullpen of the Reds is quite impressive while the Phillies' 'pen is effective at times, as well. Joey Votto is a legitimate MVP candidate while the Phillies order with Howard, Utley and Werth in the middle should scare anybody.
So, does it really matter who emerges with the National League pennant? Of course it does, but they will still be considered the underdog regardless of who comes out of the American League. The AL teams are simply too powerful on paper to make any of the NL teams look like juggernauts. Only the Reds and Phillies have a realistic chance at taking down the rotation-rich, offense-minded American League pennant winner. Look for the American league to capture yet another World Series title in October.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Who Are The Dodgers Kidding?
With the N.L. West race coming down to really a two team battle, the Los Angeles Dodgers are clearly on the outside looking in. But don't tell that to their front office. While San Diego is running away with things and the Giants being the only team with a realistic chance to compete with them, the Dodgers could make a handful of moves that would benefit them for years to come. Unfortunately it doesn't look like Ned Colleti will be able to swallow his pride to get it done.
First and foremost, the Mannywood days in L.A. are done and everybody knows it. Manny has worn out his welcome in Dodger Blue. He's raking in a ton of cash and giving back very little on the field (sound familiar, Matt Kemp?) since he's spent so much time on the DL once again this year. Colleti had the cajones to put the slugger on waivers and, as anticipated, the White Sox have won the waiver claim on Man-Ram but its unclear at this point whether or not a deal will get done. Trading Manny would save the Dodgers a very nice chunk of change and also net them some prospects or possibly a MLB-ready guy right now. Its silly to think that this may not get done since the benefits are so obvious. You'd have to think the Dodgers would be very aggressive sellers of Ramirez but that may not be the case.
The acquisition of Ted Lilly was a smart move approaching the trade deadline. If the Dodgers were to contend this season then Lilly would be an important piece. Things haven't worked out for the team but Lilly has been excellent. Despite his success and modest price tag, the Dodgers have place Lilly on waivers. The only reason to trade Lilly would be if the Dodgers were truly rebuilding but with their talent and reluctance to trade the aging and injured Ramirez, rebuilding doesn't appear to be the case. Lilly is affordable and effective but he is made available while Ramirez is expensive and ineffective (yet somehow in demand) and they won't make the deal with the White Sox. Is anyone else confused here?
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to recognize the situation that their currently in. They are out of the playoff picture and should be focussing their efforts on 2011. Getting something in return for Manny Ramirez (aside from salary relief) would be a plus. Retaining Ted Lilly to help Clayton Kershaw hold down the rotation for an affordable price would set them up for next season. Will the front office see the writing on the wall in time to get things squared away and swallow their pride to ensure that it happens? We'll have to wait and see.
First and foremost, the Mannywood days in L.A. are done and everybody knows it. Manny has worn out his welcome in Dodger Blue. He's raking in a ton of cash and giving back very little on the field (sound familiar, Matt Kemp?) since he's spent so much time on the DL once again this year. Colleti had the cajones to put the slugger on waivers and, as anticipated, the White Sox have won the waiver claim on Man-Ram but its unclear at this point whether or not a deal will get done. Trading Manny would save the Dodgers a very nice chunk of change and also net them some prospects or possibly a MLB-ready guy right now. Its silly to think that this may not get done since the benefits are so obvious. You'd have to think the Dodgers would be very aggressive sellers of Ramirez but that may not be the case.
The acquisition of Ted Lilly was a smart move approaching the trade deadline. If the Dodgers were to contend this season then Lilly would be an important piece. Things haven't worked out for the team but Lilly has been excellent. Despite his success and modest price tag, the Dodgers have place Lilly on waivers. The only reason to trade Lilly would be if the Dodgers were truly rebuilding but with their talent and reluctance to trade the aging and injured Ramirez, rebuilding doesn't appear to be the case. Lilly is affordable and effective but he is made available while Ramirez is expensive and ineffective (yet somehow in demand) and they won't make the deal with the White Sox. Is anyone else confused here?
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to recognize the situation that their currently in. They are out of the playoff picture and should be focussing their efforts on 2011. Getting something in return for Manny Ramirez (aside from salary relief) would be a plus. Retaining Ted Lilly to help Clayton Kershaw hold down the rotation for an affordable price would set them up for next season. Will the front office see the writing on the wall in time to get things squared away and swallow their pride to ensure that it happens? We'll have to wait and see.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Who's got next?
Living in the Northwest, its been a tough baseball season. The Mariners were many people's sneaky pick to win the AL West but, in case you haven't noticed, that hasn't exactly worked out. A fired manager and possibly 100 losses later, the Mariners will find themselves in a precarious position. Jack Z will have to ask himself whether or not to try to win in 2011 or begin to rebuild completely. Since the Mariners were largely inactive come the trade deadline and haven't completely shelved their veterans to give experience to their young guns, signs point to the M's attempting to be competitive once again in 2011. They have reason to give it a try, though, as they've been quite competitive over the last month, winning several series along the way. Looking ahead, there are clearly some question marks for the M's in 2011 but there's no reason to think they won't be competitive. Here's a position-by-position breakdown of what to look for next season.
Behind the plate, Adam Moore will continue to get a chance to develop. Josh Bard didn't provide much for the Mariners and what you see is what you get with Rob Johnson (poor catching and worse offense). Moore is the catcher of the future for Seattle but they will definitely need a reliable backup. Don't expect them to spend much on acquiring another big-league catcher and while they shouldn't even consider it, Johnson could be a cheap option. Unless Jack decides to overpay for a veteran backstop, pencil in Adam Moore as the 2011 starter.
At first base, Justin Smoak should be the Opening Day starter. As the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak didn't transition well to Seattle and was sent down to AAA after about a month or so with the big club. His AAA numbers are relatively good as he's posted an .897 OPS and 6 HRs in 33 games. He still manages to walk a ton and get on base at an impressive clip so he'll likely get another chance to start the season in the bigs, especially if he has a decent Spring Training next April. Current first baseman Casey Kotchman will like be non-tendered in the offseason given that he has a .632 OPS in 97 games. Gold-Glove caliber defense or not, Kotchman hasn't done nearly enough with the bat to be re-signed by the club.
Second base is maned by Chone Figgins and although there have been some rumors of him being traded (notably to the Braves), I expect the Mariners to keep him after giving him a four year deal in the offseason. He started the season tremendously slow but has been impressive since the All-Star break. A strong second half in 2010 could likely carry over into a solid 2011. Figgins is all but a lock at second.
Third base is currently manned by Jose Lopez but I don't expect that to last much longer. While he made the switch from second to third successfully in terms of defense, Jose is experiencing his worst season offensively. His on-base percentage is a disgusting .270 and all of his other offensive numbers are down as well. His plate discipline continues to be poor and his power has disappeared which makes him another non-tender candidate. This is the one area where the Mariners could look to make a splash. While there won't be many options to sign in terms of free agents, the M's could explore trade opportunities. Matt Mangini has been successful in AAA this season but won't likely be a strong candidate to begin the season in Seattle. Jack will have some work to do to fill the void at third base for 2011. The outcome at the hot-corner is unclear at this point in time.
Shortstop was supposed to be manned by Jack Wilson in 2010 but it comes as no surprise that Jack has had trouble staying healthy, at one point even considering a mid-season retirement. Josh Wilson, however, has filled in admirably. Although not as good as the elder Wilson, his defense is solid and he can hit some but not a lot. Wilson is really best suited to be a utility guy but has been forced into the everyday lineup for the bulk of 2010. In 2011, however, the management could look to add a piece or simply give Josh Wilson another shot. Like third base, the free agent field is pretty thin so any significant upgrade would have to come through a trade. I would look for them to stick with Wilson but also explore what's out there.
Left field is an area where things start to get interesting. There are a host of players that could be fits for the club, including the developing Michael Saunders who probably should get the nod in 2011 as he was one of the clubs top prospects coming into 2010 and has had some success at the plate this season while playing terrific defense. Seattle hasn't given up on Matt Tuiasosopo either and he's gotten some time in left this season as well. While some Seattle fans would like to do it, they can't forget about Milton Bradley, either. Depending on what happens at the DH position, Bradley and his sub-par defense could wind up in left field, relegating Saunders to a backup role. The Mariners are committed to Bradley so he's not going away, they just have to figure out how to use him. Saunders should be the left fielder but that doesn't mean he will be.
Franklin Gutierrez is having another fantastic season defensively in center field. After a red-hot start to the season, however, Guti has struggled to keep his average over .250 but has been a consistent contributer with the stick. He signed a four-year extension this winter and will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2011.
While he's in jeopardy of not reaching 200 hits for the first time in his 10-year career this season, Ichiro Suzuki will still be the M's right fielder in 2011. The perennial All-Star and outstanding leadoff hitter will surely take the first at-bat for the Mariners again in 2011. He and Gutierrez are the surest things in the Mariners lineup.
At DH, the Mariners have a few options. Since re-acquiring Russell "The Muscle" Branyan this summer, he's been again dinged up but very potent when in the lineup. The Mariners could keep him as he'd clearly be the hitter with the most power in the lineup but he is going to be a free agent in 2011 so they'd have to pay a good little bit to keep him a Mariner. He is also a first base candidate but that blocks the path of top prospect and first baseman of the future, Justin Smoak. Given Russell's injury history, he's best suited to be a big-bopping DH. Milton Bradley will be in the final year of his deal and could also be the designated hitter if he isn't in left field. He's been super-disappointing in 2010 and if he doesn't get it together early on in 2011, he could be DFA'd. The Mariners will surely be happy to get out from under that contract (or essentially the contract of Carlos Silva) once 2011 is over. Heading into the season, however, the Mariners have options at DH and the first piece of the puzzle will be shown when they decide whether or not to re-sign Branyan.
The rotation is in relatively good shape looking ahead. Felix Hernandez has been solid yet again for the Mariners and will likely make another run at the Cy Young in 2011. Despite never making it into a game with Seattle in 2010, Erik Bedard will probably be healthy come next year and could be an $8 million gamble as he has a mutual option for 2011. Provided he can attain some level of success, he would make a great number two pitcher behind King Felix, especially since he's a lefty. But at $8 million I wouldn't bet on it. Jason Vargas has been the surprise of 2010 and will have the opportunity to prove it wasn't a fluke. The lefty could fill the third or fourth slot in the rotation in 2011. Doug Fister started the year on fire but came back to earth after a DL stint. Look for him to take over the forth or fifth spot in the rotation and continue to mature. Youngsters Luke French and David Pauley could get looks in Spring Training while one would have to figure that Ryan Rowland-Smith is all but done as a big-league starter after having one of the worst season in recent memory by any full-time starting pitcher (1-10, 6.96 ERA, 40 BB, 38K in 98 IP).
Seattle could definitely stand to add a starter or two in the offseason. Bedard is a long-shot in my opinion since Seattle would have to pick up the $8 million mutual option on him and he hasn't really pitched at all in the last two years. Guys like Bronson Arroyo (if his $11 million club option isn't picked up), Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harrang, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb and Todd Wellemeyer will all be options for the Mariners. Although these pitchers won't strike the average fan as all that exciting, Correia and Lilly are having strong second halves, Pavano has been surprisingly solid and would have to likely be overpaid to get away from Minnesota, Webb is a proven star coming off of a severe injury, Harrang and Arroyo are innings-eaters while Bonderman and Wellemeyer are coming off disappointing seasons after having success in the past. Best of all, these buys are affordable for Seattle and could help fill out the rotation in various capacities. Hernandez, Vargas and Fister are locks to make the rotation but the rest is unsettled. Look for the Mariners to add at least one starter via free agency in the offseason.
After the bullpen was stellar in 2009, it was a major let-down in 2010. This was not all that surprising after several members overachieved in 2009 and fell back to reality this season. David Aardsma will likely be the closer again and get a chance to redeem himself. If Mark Lowe can return from a back injury that shut him down in 2010, he will have a place in the 'pen and could be the set-up man once again. Brandon League will be returning after a decent season where he has served in nearly every bullpen capacity at one point or another this year. Aside from those three, the rest is up in the air. Garret Olson, Brian Sweeney, Sean White, David Pauley and Luke French could all be in the mix. There's a bevy of option on the free agent market as well so Seattle could add pieces if they wish. The bottom line is that the 'pen has to be better for the Mariners to have any kind of success in '11.
To recap, Seattle has some reasonable pieces in place for the future but they also have plenty of areas to shore up. They will almost certainly need to add a third baseman, could potentially add a shortstop, will need to make difficult decisions at first base, left field and DH, could definitely use at least one quality starter (if not two) and should explore adding a bullpen piece or two. The most crucial key to 2011 success, however, lies in the achievement of players that are currently on the roster and will be counted on again next season. Many players, such as Figgins, Bradley, Gutierrez and Aardsma have severely underachieved and will need to get closer to their 2010 forms if the M's want to make a legitimate run at things in 2011, which is not completely out of the question.
Behind the plate, Adam Moore will continue to get a chance to develop. Josh Bard didn't provide much for the Mariners and what you see is what you get with Rob Johnson (poor catching and worse offense). Moore is the catcher of the future for Seattle but they will definitely need a reliable backup. Don't expect them to spend much on acquiring another big-league catcher and while they shouldn't even consider it, Johnson could be a cheap option. Unless Jack decides to overpay for a veteran backstop, pencil in Adam Moore as the 2011 starter.
At first base, Justin Smoak should be the Opening Day starter. As the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak didn't transition well to Seattle and was sent down to AAA after about a month or so with the big club. His AAA numbers are relatively good as he's posted an .897 OPS and 6 HRs in 33 games. He still manages to walk a ton and get on base at an impressive clip so he'll likely get another chance to start the season in the bigs, especially if he has a decent Spring Training next April. Current first baseman Casey Kotchman will like be non-tendered in the offseason given that he has a .632 OPS in 97 games. Gold-Glove caliber defense or not, Kotchman hasn't done nearly enough with the bat to be re-signed by the club.
Second base is maned by Chone Figgins and although there have been some rumors of him being traded (notably to the Braves), I expect the Mariners to keep him after giving him a four year deal in the offseason. He started the season tremendously slow but has been impressive since the All-Star break. A strong second half in 2010 could likely carry over into a solid 2011. Figgins is all but a lock at second.
Third base is currently manned by Jose Lopez but I don't expect that to last much longer. While he made the switch from second to third successfully in terms of defense, Jose is experiencing his worst season offensively. His on-base percentage is a disgusting .270 and all of his other offensive numbers are down as well. His plate discipline continues to be poor and his power has disappeared which makes him another non-tender candidate. This is the one area where the Mariners could look to make a splash. While there won't be many options to sign in terms of free agents, the M's could explore trade opportunities. Matt Mangini has been successful in AAA this season but won't likely be a strong candidate to begin the season in Seattle. Jack will have some work to do to fill the void at third base for 2011. The outcome at the hot-corner is unclear at this point in time.
Shortstop was supposed to be manned by Jack Wilson in 2010 but it comes as no surprise that Jack has had trouble staying healthy, at one point even considering a mid-season retirement. Josh Wilson, however, has filled in admirably. Although not as good as the elder Wilson, his defense is solid and he can hit some but not a lot. Wilson is really best suited to be a utility guy but has been forced into the everyday lineup for the bulk of 2010. In 2011, however, the management could look to add a piece or simply give Josh Wilson another shot. Like third base, the free agent field is pretty thin so any significant upgrade would have to come through a trade. I would look for them to stick with Wilson but also explore what's out there.
Left field is an area where things start to get interesting. There are a host of players that could be fits for the club, including the developing Michael Saunders who probably should get the nod in 2011 as he was one of the clubs top prospects coming into 2010 and has had some success at the plate this season while playing terrific defense. Seattle hasn't given up on Matt Tuiasosopo either and he's gotten some time in left this season as well. While some Seattle fans would like to do it, they can't forget about Milton Bradley, either. Depending on what happens at the DH position, Bradley and his sub-par defense could wind up in left field, relegating Saunders to a backup role. The Mariners are committed to Bradley so he's not going away, they just have to figure out how to use him. Saunders should be the left fielder but that doesn't mean he will be.
Franklin Gutierrez is having another fantastic season defensively in center field. After a red-hot start to the season, however, Guti has struggled to keep his average over .250 but has been a consistent contributer with the stick. He signed a four-year extension this winter and will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2011.
While he's in jeopardy of not reaching 200 hits for the first time in his 10-year career this season, Ichiro Suzuki will still be the M's right fielder in 2011. The perennial All-Star and outstanding leadoff hitter will surely take the first at-bat for the Mariners again in 2011. He and Gutierrez are the surest things in the Mariners lineup.
At DH, the Mariners have a few options. Since re-acquiring Russell "The Muscle" Branyan this summer, he's been again dinged up but very potent when in the lineup. The Mariners could keep him as he'd clearly be the hitter with the most power in the lineup but he is going to be a free agent in 2011 so they'd have to pay a good little bit to keep him a Mariner. He is also a first base candidate but that blocks the path of top prospect and first baseman of the future, Justin Smoak. Given Russell's injury history, he's best suited to be a big-bopping DH. Milton Bradley will be in the final year of his deal and could also be the designated hitter if he isn't in left field. He's been super-disappointing in 2010 and if he doesn't get it together early on in 2011, he could be DFA'd. The Mariners will surely be happy to get out from under that contract (or essentially the contract of Carlos Silva) once 2011 is over. Heading into the season, however, the Mariners have options at DH and the first piece of the puzzle will be shown when they decide whether or not to re-sign Branyan.
The rotation is in relatively good shape looking ahead. Felix Hernandez has been solid yet again for the Mariners and will likely make another run at the Cy Young in 2011. Despite never making it into a game with Seattle in 2010, Erik Bedard will probably be healthy come next year and could be an $8 million gamble as he has a mutual option for 2011. Provided he can attain some level of success, he would make a great number two pitcher behind King Felix, especially since he's a lefty. But at $8 million I wouldn't bet on it. Jason Vargas has been the surprise of 2010 and will have the opportunity to prove it wasn't a fluke. The lefty could fill the third or fourth slot in the rotation in 2011. Doug Fister started the year on fire but came back to earth after a DL stint. Look for him to take over the forth or fifth spot in the rotation and continue to mature. Youngsters Luke French and David Pauley could get looks in Spring Training while one would have to figure that Ryan Rowland-Smith is all but done as a big-league starter after having one of the worst season in recent memory by any full-time starting pitcher (1-10, 6.96 ERA, 40 BB, 38K in 98 IP).
Seattle could definitely stand to add a starter or two in the offseason. Bedard is a long-shot in my opinion since Seattle would have to pick up the $8 million mutual option on him and he hasn't really pitched at all in the last two years. Guys like Bronson Arroyo (if his $11 million club option isn't picked up), Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harrang, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb and Todd Wellemeyer will all be options for the Mariners. Although these pitchers won't strike the average fan as all that exciting, Correia and Lilly are having strong second halves, Pavano has been surprisingly solid and would have to likely be overpaid to get away from Minnesota, Webb is a proven star coming off of a severe injury, Harrang and Arroyo are innings-eaters while Bonderman and Wellemeyer are coming off disappointing seasons after having success in the past. Best of all, these buys are affordable for Seattle and could help fill out the rotation in various capacities. Hernandez, Vargas and Fister are locks to make the rotation but the rest is unsettled. Look for the Mariners to add at least one starter via free agency in the offseason.
After the bullpen was stellar in 2009, it was a major let-down in 2010. This was not all that surprising after several members overachieved in 2009 and fell back to reality this season. David Aardsma will likely be the closer again and get a chance to redeem himself. If Mark Lowe can return from a back injury that shut him down in 2010, he will have a place in the 'pen and could be the set-up man once again. Brandon League will be returning after a decent season where he has served in nearly every bullpen capacity at one point or another this year. Aside from those three, the rest is up in the air. Garret Olson, Brian Sweeney, Sean White, David Pauley and Luke French could all be in the mix. There's a bevy of option on the free agent market as well so Seattle could add pieces if they wish. The bottom line is that the 'pen has to be better for the Mariners to have any kind of success in '11.
To recap, Seattle has some reasonable pieces in place for the future but they also have plenty of areas to shore up. They will almost certainly need to add a third baseman, could potentially add a shortstop, will need to make difficult decisions at first base, left field and DH, could definitely use at least one quality starter (if not two) and should explore adding a bullpen piece or two. The most crucial key to 2011 success, however, lies in the achievement of players that are currently on the roster and will be counted on again next season. Many players, such as Figgins, Bradley, Gutierrez and Aardsma have severely underachieved and will need to get closer to their 2010 forms if the M's want to make a legitimate run at things in 2011, which is not completely out of the question.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Why Chipper Jones and Brett Favre are more similar than you think...
At 38 years old, Chipper Jones is at a major crossroads. The notion of retirement has swirled around the Braves' third baseman for for the last few seasons. If you have ears and/or can read, you don't need a refresher on Brett Favre's retirement situation but there is an obvious similarity: aging superstar, one of the very best in the history of his sport at his position, facing a devastating injury and at risk of damaging his certainly Hall of Fame legacy. So why continue to play? Because both of these guys have earned the right to call it quits on their own terms, not the public's.
Chipper Jones is purely one of the best switch-hitters to ever swing a bat. He has taken every single at-bat with the Braves over his 17 year career, winning one World Series (1995) and an MVP Award (1999). Since he broke into the league, Chipper has been a steady producer for a team that has been incredibly successful, often leading the team in most or all major offensive categories. In the last few season, however, Chipper has incurred injuries that have becoming seemingly more and more difficult to recover from. His latest injury is nothing short of catastrophic: a torn ACL. Is Chipper's retirement imminent? Only he knows the answer at this point.
Critics are saying overwhelmingly that Chipper should retire. He may well have already made up his mind on the matter but the simple fact that some are overlooking here is that no one, and I mean no one, should tell Chipper Jones to retire unless that person is him. As someone who is destined to become a true legend of the game, Chipper has earned the right to go out on his own terms, regardless of what others have to say about it. Brett Favre is in the same boat. He gets to retire whenever he declares the time is right, as does Mr. Jones.
Am I saying that Chipper should retire, un-retire, retire, un-retire and then leave us all in limbo while ESPN spends hours a day covering all of the drama? Absolutely not. In fact, Chipper Jones will show the American public how a professional athlete should handle this difficult situation. He will do it with dignity and in a professional, adult manner. Oh yeah, and he'll do it when he's good and ready and not before.
Chipper Jones is purely one of the best switch-hitters to ever swing a bat. He has taken every single at-bat with the Braves over his 17 year career, winning one World Series (1995) and an MVP Award (1999). Since he broke into the league, Chipper has been a steady producer for a team that has been incredibly successful, often leading the team in most or all major offensive categories. In the last few season, however, Chipper has incurred injuries that have becoming seemingly more and more difficult to recover from. His latest injury is nothing short of catastrophic: a torn ACL. Is Chipper's retirement imminent? Only he knows the answer at this point.
Critics are saying overwhelmingly that Chipper should retire. He may well have already made up his mind on the matter but the simple fact that some are overlooking here is that no one, and I mean no one, should tell Chipper Jones to retire unless that person is him. As someone who is destined to become a true legend of the game, Chipper has earned the right to go out on his own terms, regardless of what others have to say about it. Brett Favre is in the same boat. He gets to retire whenever he declares the time is right, as does Mr. Jones.
Am I saying that Chipper should retire, un-retire, retire, un-retire and then leave us all in limbo while ESPN spends hours a day covering all of the drama? Absolutely not. In fact, Chipper Jones will show the American public how a professional athlete should handle this difficult situation. He will do it with dignity and in a professional, adult manner. Oh yeah, and he'll do it when he's good and ready and not before.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
The Most Exciting Time in Baseball
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, it can get exciting projecting who might end up where. Unfortunately, it often ends up a tease with little swapping really going on. This makes the trade deadline incredibly exciting and incredibly disappointing at the same time.
A few pieces have been moved by mid-day on the 29th, with Roy Oswalt being the biggest fish to change ponds. As speculated, Oswalt will join the Phillies who must now likely move Jason Werth to make salary room for Oswalt moving forward. Good news for prospect Dominic Brown who made his MLB debut last night for the Phils by going 2-3 with a couple RBI’s. This trade is interesting, however, because the Phillies moved Cliff Lee in the winter, then realized they didn’t have enough pitching and had to make a desperation move at the deadline to re-bolster the rotation by adding Oswalt. After the all of the pieces have settled, the Phillies would have been way better off just keeping Lee in the first place since it appears that keeping Lee would have been a possibility (especially if they had been willing to move Werth before the season since they knew that contract issues were sure to arise after the 2010 season concludes).
Dan Haren moved over from the D-Backs to the Angels, a move that really helps Los Angeles going forward. Haren seemed to be really excited about the trade since he’s a California native and the Angles are much bigger contenders than the Diamondbacks who are in total rebuild mode. The Angels are hurting without slugger Kendry Morales in the lineup for the rest of the year and shouldn’t, in my opinion, try to make a big push this season. The Rangers aren’t going anywhere and the Angels aren’t going to run them down, no matter who they might add at first base (Derek Lee is a bad idea). Its been well-documented that the Angels gave up very little to get Haren and they should begin assembling pieces to regain the division in 2011 when Morales is healthy again and they have Haren and the recently acquired Callaspo for an entire season.
In smaller moves, the Padres acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles. In the first post of this blog, I explained why the Padres needed to buy at least one bat and possibly two. They’ve got one and, if they can acquire a hitting outfielder, they may not just win the West but be strong pennant and title contenders. They are beginning to distance themselves in the NL West and I don’t expect them to be caught unless the Rockies get hot. The Dodgers don’t have the resources to make a push and the Giants’ don’t appear to be on the verge of making up major ground.
The Ranger snatched Jorge Cantu from the Marlins and, although he’s cooled down significantly since he began the season red-hot, he should be a strong platoon-mate for Chris Davis. This adds to the versatility of the Rangers as Cantu can play third base as well or DH. This will let them rest guys like Vladamir Guerrero or Michael Young down the stretch to prepare for the playoffs. The Rangers may not be done adding, too. Rumors are that they are looking to acquire another piece or two in the next two-plus days as the deadline approaches. I fully expect the Rangers to make an all-out push for the AL pennant despite they’re future franchise sell-off question mark.
I don’t expect Adam Dunn or Prince Fielder to get moved before the deadline and it appears that moving Jason Werth may be difficult. We’ll see, though!
A few pieces have been moved by mid-day on the 29th, with Roy Oswalt being the biggest fish to change ponds. As speculated, Oswalt will join the Phillies who must now likely move Jason Werth to make salary room for Oswalt moving forward. Good news for prospect Dominic Brown who made his MLB debut last night for the Phils by going 2-3 with a couple RBI’s. This trade is interesting, however, because the Phillies moved Cliff Lee in the winter, then realized they didn’t have enough pitching and had to make a desperation move at the deadline to re-bolster the rotation by adding Oswalt. After the all of the pieces have settled, the Phillies would have been way better off just keeping Lee in the first place since it appears that keeping Lee would have been a possibility (especially if they had been willing to move Werth before the season since they knew that contract issues were sure to arise after the 2010 season concludes).
Dan Haren moved over from the D-Backs to the Angels, a move that really helps Los Angeles going forward. Haren seemed to be really excited about the trade since he’s a California native and the Angles are much bigger contenders than the Diamondbacks who are in total rebuild mode. The Angels are hurting without slugger Kendry Morales in the lineup for the rest of the year and shouldn’t, in my opinion, try to make a big push this season. The Rangers aren’t going anywhere and the Angels aren’t going to run them down, no matter who they might add at first base (Derek Lee is a bad idea). Its been well-documented that the Angels gave up very little to get Haren and they should begin assembling pieces to regain the division in 2011 when Morales is healthy again and they have Haren and the recently acquired Callaspo for an entire season.
In smaller moves, the Padres acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles. In the first post of this blog, I explained why the Padres needed to buy at least one bat and possibly two. They’ve got one and, if they can acquire a hitting outfielder, they may not just win the West but be strong pennant and title contenders. They are beginning to distance themselves in the NL West and I don’t expect them to be caught unless the Rockies get hot. The Dodgers don’t have the resources to make a push and the Giants’ don’t appear to be on the verge of making up major ground.
The Ranger snatched Jorge Cantu from the Marlins and, although he’s cooled down significantly since he began the season red-hot, he should be a strong platoon-mate for Chris Davis. This adds to the versatility of the Rangers as Cantu can play third base as well or DH. This will let them rest guys like Vladamir Guerrero or Michael Young down the stretch to prepare for the playoffs. The Rangers may not be done adding, too. Rumors are that they are looking to acquire another piece or two in the next two-plus days as the deadline approaches. I fully expect the Rangers to make an all-out push for the AL pennant despite they’re future franchise sell-off question mark.
I don’t expect Adam Dunn or Prince Fielder to get moved before the deadline and it appears that moving Jason Werth may be difficult. We’ll see, though!
Friday, July 23, 2010
AL/NL Comparison: Final Analysis
In the previous post we’ve established a few things. First, the average All Star for either the AL or NL is 29 years old. The average American Leaguer makes roughly 25% more per season, has about 18% more total value to his team (as determined through the WAR statistic) and has 10% more big league experience than their NL counterparts. In short, this year’s AL All Stars are, on average, more expensive but more valuable than this year’s NL All Stars. Does the American League overpay for these players, though? Let’s see…
On average, American League position players have a slightly higher value every season, posting an average WAR of 3.2 while NL All Star position players posted an average WAR of 3.1 per season. Needless to say, these totals are very similar. So why are American League All Star position players paid an average of $10.36 million dollars per season when NL All Star position players are paid an average of $6.61 million per season? I suppose we’d have to ask the Steinbrenners that question to find an answer.
Dissimilarly, the American League does not appear to over pay its pitchers, at least compared to the National League. With an average WAR of 2.6 per season, AL All Star pitchers are paid an average salary of $5.74 million dollars per season. NL All Star pitchers were paid just less at $5.50 million per season but also posted lower average WAR’s at 2.2 per season. In fact, the NL pays slightly more per pitcher WAR but this is in line with the typical view of the pitching/defense-dominated National League.
To compare what all of this is worth, I decided to divide the average WAR (true value) of AL/NL position players by their average salary. I did the same thing with pitchers. I believe this gives the best true understanding of what each league is paying for and what they are receiving in return. Per win above replacement level (WAR), the American League pays its All Star position players over $370,000. By comparison, the National League paid its All Star position players only $329,000 per WAR. When it comes to pitchers, the AL leads the bidding as well. AL All Star pitchers are paid $367,000 per WAR while their NL counterparts were paid just under $330,000. Because all WAR units are truly equal, the AL definitely overpays for what it receives. By this measurement the National League does a much better job of evaluating talent getting a better “bang for the buck” than the AL does. The NL is forced to do this for a number of reasons, the biggest being that more NL teams are considered “small market” and, outside of the Phillies and Cubs, don’t have the massive salaries that are seen in the American League.
So in review, we can see that the average American League All Star is more experienced and has a slightly higher “true value” than NL All Stars. They are also overpaid when compared to their fellow NL All Stars, though. In terms of both position players and pitchers, the American League can boast a higher value for both over the NL but the National League can clearly laugh last in terms of salary efficiency. These factors may contribute to why the American League is considered by some, especially the casual observer, as the premier league. Amongst baseball critics, however, most of us appreciate the National Leagues ability to put together championship winning teams in a league that technically achieves less and definitely pays less.
On average, American League position players have a slightly higher value every season, posting an average WAR of 3.2 while NL All Star position players posted an average WAR of 3.1 per season. Needless to say, these totals are very similar. So why are American League All Star position players paid an average of $10.36 million dollars per season when NL All Star position players are paid an average of $6.61 million per season? I suppose we’d have to ask the Steinbrenners that question to find an answer.
Dissimilarly, the American League does not appear to over pay its pitchers, at least compared to the National League. With an average WAR of 2.6 per season, AL All Star pitchers are paid an average salary of $5.74 million dollars per season. NL All Star pitchers were paid just less at $5.50 million per season but also posted lower average WAR’s at 2.2 per season. In fact, the NL pays slightly more per pitcher WAR but this is in line with the typical view of the pitching/defense-dominated National League.
To compare what all of this is worth, I decided to divide the average WAR (true value) of AL/NL position players by their average salary. I did the same thing with pitchers. I believe this gives the best true understanding of what each league is paying for and what they are receiving in return. Per win above replacement level (WAR), the American League pays its All Star position players over $370,000. By comparison, the National League paid its All Star position players only $329,000 per WAR. When it comes to pitchers, the AL leads the bidding as well. AL All Star pitchers are paid $367,000 per WAR while their NL counterparts were paid just under $330,000. Because all WAR units are truly equal, the AL definitely overpays for what it receives. By this measurement the National League does a much better job of evaluating talent getting a better “bang for the buck” than the AL does. The NL is forced to do this for a number of reasons, the biggest being that more NL teams are considered “small market” and, outside of the Phillies and Cubs, don’t have the massive salaries that are seen in the American League.
So in review, we can see that the average American League All Star is more experienced and has a slightly higher “true value” than NL All Stars. They are also overpaid when compared to their fellow NL All Stars, though. In terms of both position players and pitchers, the American League can boast a higher value for both over the NL but the National League can clearly laugh last in terms of salary efficiency. These factors may contribute to why the American League is considered by some, especially the casual observer, as the premier league. Amongst baseball critics, however, most of us appreciate the National Leagues ability to put together championship winning teams in a league that technically achieves less and definitely pays less.
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