To finish my last thought, there will surely be a lot of offseason movement this winter. Here are the five biggest names on the list and where I believe they will end up.
Jayson Werth (OF), Free Agent
Werth is coming off of a huge second half after he started the season a bit slowly. Although his agent, the beloved Scott Boras, says that Werth is a good enough athlete to play center field, he's certainly better suited to continue playing right field. Werth is a legitimate 30/30 candidate at this point in his career, although that will probably change as he ages past his current 27 years of age. At 6'5", Werth is an athletic specimen who will command a lot of money this winter. He is one of the "Big 3" free agents who will likely need to fall into place before many of the smaller deals fall into place this offseason. He could be the recipient of a six or seven year deal worth over $100 million. Prediction: the familiar suspects will likely be involved in the bidding, such as the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Nationals and maybe even the Dodgers or Cubs. I'm curious if someone will be willing to overpay and just buy Werth away from the competition. Depending on where Carl Crawford lands, I see Werth staying in the National League, presumably with the Nationals. Since they may not retain Adam Dunn, Werth would be a solid replacement offensively and a big upgrade defensively, plus they may just be willing to pay the price to get him. Expect the discussion to be where to play Bryce Harper in two years, first base or left field?
Prince Fielder (1B), Milwaukee Brewers
The big firstbaseman of the Brewers could be on the move the winter. The small-market Brewers have grown tired of his antics at times and probably won't be able to afford him once his deal is up at the end of the 2011 season. As is the case with Gonzalez, the Brewers could trade Prince to bring something back in return for him moving along. A perennial 40 homerun threat, Fielder could be enticing to teams that are high on his power and not scared off by his weight problems. Prediction: while the smart move would be to move Fielder this offseason, I don't think the Brewers will get it done. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Nationals, Mariners and Orioles could be interested and "kick the tires" on Fielder in the next few months, but I expect the Brewers to have too high of an asking price to make a deal realistic.
Zack Greinke (SP), Kansas City Royals
Interestingly, Greinke's name has recently surfaced in trade rumors. The 2009 Cy Young winner had a letdown season in 2010 but most agree that his "stuff" is still top-notch. Because he's young and has been pretty consistent, Greinke could be a huge get for any team looking to significantly upgrade their starting pitching. It appears that Greinke has gotten frustrated with the direction of the franchise and it is truly a shame that one of the game's best pitchers plays for such an abysmal team. Prediction: This one may have some traction. The Royals may jump at the chance to move Greinke for the right pieces since they are still obviously a long ways away from being a legitimate contender. The Yankees still have Jesus Montero to deal and could presumably put something together, especially since AJ Burnett has disappointed. The Mets, Twins, Braves and Cardinals could also take a run at the Ace. Odds are that he stays a Royal but don't be surprised he does change teams in the next few months.
Carl Crawford (OF), Free Agent
Crawford is clearly the premier position player available and he will receive a very large contract with whomever he chooses. He appears to be really coming into his prime with the bat as his power numbers have steadily increased over the last few seasons. He's also a very athletic left fielder since he has the prototypical speed of a center fielder. He can steal 40 bases per season too if needed. At this point in his career, and with the price it will take to acquire him, he appears to slated for a middle-of-the-order role rather than in the leadoff capacity. The former Ray will not have the opportunity to come back to his former team since they are cutting payroll so drastically. Prediction: I firmly believe that Crawford will end up a member of the Los Angeles Angels. He's a good fit with them and they will likely pursue him hard. Other teams could include the Braves, Tigers and Red Sox. As an Angel, however, Crawford will continue to play in a warm, sunny environment (not Tropicana Field) and showcase his talents to the Left Coast.
Cliff Lee (SP), Free Agent
If you don't know who Cliff Lee is or haven't followed the hoopla that has surrounded him, I have know idea how you found this blog. Everybody and their brother will probably make a pitch at the hottest Ace to hit free agency since CC Sabathia. Turning 32 next season, Lee is not a spring chicken but isn't exactly and old guy either. His mechanics make his pitching style, which isn't overpowering, much more manageable. The Rangers will try hard to convince Lee to stay with the club but others will be lurkkng, such as the Yankees, Cubs, White Sox, Angels and even the Phillies. Prediction: Lee will be a huge target this offseason and a deal for him will help the other pieces fall into place. At the end of the day, I think Lee will re-sign with the Rangers. He's a simple guy who loves to Bass fish, Deer and Duck hunt and Texas isn't far from his home in Arkansas. The bright lights of New York would probably be a little much for him. The other teams will do their best but I don't think they will be willing to commit enough resources to garner the best postseason pitcher in recent baseball history.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Hurry up and wait (part 1)
As Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum face off tonight, I started wondering something. No, I wasn't debating who's the better pitcher or even who will win the 2010 World Series. Like any true Hot Stove addict, I'm wondering what faces are trading places in this year's offseason. This winter should see a fair amount of deals go down because this is a relatively deep free agent class. Add to this the fact that there are also a number of marquee names who are under contract but will definitely be discussed as trade pieces and we should get an offseason full of rumors and, hopefully, personnel movement. Going off of Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown article, here are ten names to keep an eye on and where exactly I think they will end up.
Matt Kemp (OF), Los Angeles Dodgers
The embattled centerfielder may have just worn out his welcome in the City of Angles. He's clearly a talented individual, wether with the bat, on the basepaths or in the outfield. The problem is consistent effort. Kemp did not get along well with Joe Torre and it is yet to be seen whether he will work well with new manager Don Mattingly who is a younger manager but also someone who is cut from the traditional baseball cloth. Despite his playing and limited coaching background, the perception is that Mattingly is more of a "players manager" than was Torre. Prediction: I don't think that the Dodgers are willing to give up on Kemp yet, despite his attitude. Mattingly will at least get a chance to get through to the young talent. Since Kemp is under contract, he would have to be traded and would likely net the Dodgers quite a haul of prospects but I just don't think the Dodgers will be willing to let him go this early in his career.
Adam Dunn (OF/1B), Free Agent
Dunn is undoubtably the biggest power bat available in this offseason, at least via free agency. Despite not having a true defensive position, Adam Dunn is always a threat to put 40+ baseballs over the fence each season, which is becoming more and more valuable in the post-steroid era. There will likely be many suitors for Dunn this winter and he will definitely command a large price on the open market. Early possibilities could include the Nationals, the Cubs, the Angels and the Mariners. Dunn will have to end up in a place where offense is emphasized more than defense, especially if he stays in the NL. Otherwise, he's best suited as a DH in the American League but could survive in left field (but just barely so). Prediction: I see Dunn signing with either the Cubs or the Angels. Chicago would take him with open arms and has money to spend as they always seem to. The Angles would take him as well, but probably only if they lose out on Carl Crawford and Jason Werth, both of whom will likely be their key targets. The Mariners need the pop but probably won't shell out the cash or take the defensive risk and the Nationals will likely wait in the wings and see how things play out before making an offer. My gut says he ends up on the Northside.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B), San Diego Padres
Unfortunately for Padre fans, the winter of 2010 may be the time that all of the trade talk surrounding Adrian Gonzalez comes to fruition. The only position player with any sort of clout in the Padre lineup, Gonzalez is a huge fish swimming in a muddle puddle in his current situation. He has power to all fields, plays a solid first base defensively and is a good teammate, making him essential total package. His deal is up at the end of 2011 so the Padres only have him for one more season. By trading him this offseason, as opposed to dealing him at the trade deadline, San Diego could get a healthy haul of prospects and probably one MLB-ready player in return for Gonzalez. Prediction: Boston has been long enamored with Gonzalez and would to snag the power firstbasmen but they appear to be somewhat unwilling to part with the pieces to complete the deal. The Cubs have an opening at first and could also be serious contenders. Despite the fact that the Red Sox and Cubs would love nothing more than to lure Gonzalez away from San Diego, I don't think the Padres will ultimately pull the trigger on dealing the man. Why? Because they're the Padres and they are sometimes willing let the ultimate opportunity pass them by. That will be the case here as well.
Rafael Soriano (RP), Free Agent
The Tampa Bay Rays employed one of the best closers in the game in 2010 but don't appear to be willing to bring him back. Soriano will likely be looking at a big time deal this offseason and the Rays are expected to be reducing payroll in a major way in 2011. As always, closers are debatable when it comes to big contracts. In his favor are the facts that Soriano has a good track record and is relatively young. He can be flat-out dominant at times and will probably get at least a 3-year deal worth $7-$9 million dollars per season. There aren't too any teams that have the capital to commit to a deal like that and most of the teams that do already have a closer who they've invested in. There are several potential suitors but nobody really jumps out at this stage of the game. Depending on Francisco Rodriguez' situation, the Mets could be involved as could the Red Sox if they decide to let Jonathan Papelbon go. The White Sox appear to be fed up with the declining Bobby Jenks and the Nationals could use back-end help that is dependable with a solid, young pitching staff expected to mature over the next few seasons. Don't count out the Angles in this sweepstakes, either. Prediction: I see the White Sox as the team most likely to sign Soriano with the Angels also getting in the mix. Ozzie Guillen likes to have a solid closer to turn to in the ninth and I think Soriano will be pitching for the Chi Sox in 2011.
Adrian Beltre (3B), Free Agent
After a breakout performance in 2010, Beltre will be looking to cash in for the long haul in 2011. After leaving Seattle, the third baseman put up MVP caliber numbers in 2010 for the Red Sox. He's a free agent once again this winter and the bidding could be intense. The Red Sox are likely the early favorites but that depends on what happens with catcher Victor Martinez and a possible trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Several other teams could use help at the hot corner, especially teams that value a good defensive third baseman like Beltre, but few will likely have the resources to bid on an aging slugger who could be resurrecting his career or just coming off a good season only to disappear like he did following his stellar 2004 campaign. Once again, the Angels could be a possibility as could be the Orioles, Dodgers, Tigers and Cardinals. I don't believe the Dodgers will bring him back and I can't see the Cardinals spending the money either. The Tigers are intriguing as they are probably going to let Ordonez walk without much of a struggle, making them a likely landing destination. The Orioles are looking for a power upgrade and Beltre could fit the bill because he already knows the divisional pitching staffs. The Red Sox would prefer to keep him but their priorities may lie elsewhere. Prediction: The Orioles will pay Beltre what it takes to bring him aboard. He will be a good fit for the O's if he keeps his form given the amount of good young talent they already have in place.
The other five names will be next to come!
Matt Kemp (OF), Los Angeles Dodgers
The embattled centerfielder may have just worn out his welcome in the City of Angles. He's clearly a talented individual, wether with the bat, on the basepaths or in the outfield. The problem is consistent effort. Kemp did not get along well with Joe Torre and it is yet to be seen whether he will work well with new manager Don Mattingly who is a younger manager but also someone who is cut from the traditional baseball cloth. Despite his playing and limited coaching background, the perception is that Mattingly is more of a "players manager" than was Torre. Prediction: I don't think that the Dodgers are willing to give up on Kemp yet, despite his attitude. Mattingly will at least get a chance to get through to the young talent. Since Kemp is under contract, he would have to be traded and would likely net the Dodgers quite a haul of prospects but I just don't think the Dodgers will be willing to let him go this early in his career.
Adam Dunn (OF/1B), Free Agent
Dunn is undoubtably the biggest power bat available in this offseason, at least via free agency. Despite not having a true defensive position, Adam Dunn is always a threat to put 40+ baseballs over the fence each season, which is becoming more and more valuable in the post-steroid era. There will likely be many suitors for Dunn this winter and he will definitely command a large price on the open market. Early possibilities could include the Nationals, the Cubs, the Angels and the Mariners. Dunn will have to end up in a place where offense is emphasized more than defense, especially if he stays in the NL. Otherwise, he's best suited as a DH in the American League but could survive in left field (but just barely so). Prediction: I see Dunn signing with either the Cubs or the Angels. Chicago would take him with open arms and has money to spend as they always seem to. The Angles would take him as well, but probably only if they lose out on Carl Crawford and Jason Werth, both of whom will likely be their key targets. The Mariners need the pop but probably won't shell out the cash or take the defensive risk and the Nationals will likely wait in the wings and see how things play out before making an offer. My gut says he ends up on the Northside.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B), San Diego Padres
Unfortunately for Padre fans, the winter of 2010 may be the time that all of the trade talk surrounding Adrian Gonzalez comes to fruition. The only position player with any sort of clout in the Padre lineup, Gonzalez is a huge fish swimming in a muddle puddle in his current situation. He has power to all fields, plays a solid first base defensively and is a good teammate, making him essential total package. His deal is up at the end of 2011 so the Padres only have him for one more season. By trading him this offseason, as opposed to dealing him at the trade deadline, San Diego could get a healthy haul of prospects and probably one MLB-ready player in return for Gonzalez. Prediction: Boston has been long enamored with Gonzalez and would to snag the power firstbasmen but they appear to be somewhat unwilling to part with the pieces to complete the deal. The Cubs have an opening at first and could also be serious contenders. Despite the fact that the Red Sox and Cubs would love nothing more than to lure Gonzalez away from San Diego, I don't think the Padres will ultimately pull the trigger on dealing the man. Why? Because they're the Padres and they are sometimes willing let the ultimate opportunity pass them by. That will be the case here as well.
Rafael Soriano (RP), Free Agent
The Tampa Bay Rays employed one of the best closers in the game in 2010 but don't appear to be willing to bring him back. Soriano will likely be looking at a big time deal this offseason and the Rays are expected to be reducing payroll in a major way in 2011. As always, closers are debatable when it comes to big contracts. In his favor are the facts that Soriano has a good track record and is relatively young. He can be flat-out dominant at times and will probably get at least a 3-year deal worth $7-$9 million dollars per season. There aren't too any teams that have the capital to commit to a deal like that and most of the teams that do already have a closer who they've invested in. There are several potential suitors but nobody really jumps out at this stage of the game. Depending on Francisco Rodriguez' situation, the Mets could be involved as could the Red Sox if they decide to let Jonathan Papelbon go. The White Sox appear to be fed up with the declining Bobby Jenks and the Nationals could use back-end help that is dependable with a solid, young pitching staff expected to mature over the next few seasons. Don't count out the Angles in this sweepstakes, either. Prediction: I see the White Sox as the team most likely to sign Soriano with the Angels also getting in the mix. Ozzie Guillen likes to have a solid closer to turn to in the ninth and I think Soriano will be pitching for the Chi Sox in 2011.
Adrian Beltre (3B), Free Agent
After a breakout performance in 2010, Beltre will be looking to cash in for the long haul in 2011. After leaving Seattle, the third baseman put up MVP caliber numbers in 2010 for the Red Sox. He's a free agent once again this winter and the bidding could be intense. The Red Sox are likely the early favorites but that depends on what happens with catcher Victor Martinez and a possible trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Several other teams could use help at the hot corner, especially teams that value a good defensive third baseman like Beltre, but few will likely have the resources to bid on an aging slugger who could be resurrecting his career or just coming off a good season only to disappear like he did following his stellar 2004 campaign. Once again, the Angels could be a possibility as could be the Orioles, Dodgers, Tigers and Cardinals. I don't believe the Dodgers will bring him back and I can't see the Cardinals spending the money either. The Tigers are intriguing as they are probably going to let Ordonez walk without much of a struggle, making them a likely landing destination. The Orioles are looking for a power upgrade and Beltre could fit the bill because he already knows the divisional pitching staffs. The Red Sox would prefer to keep him but their priorities may lie elsewhere. Prediction: The Orioles will pay Beltre what it takes to bring him aboard. He will be a good fit for the O's if he keeps his form given the amount of good young talent they already have in place.
The other five names will be next to come!
Monday, October 25, 2010
Its World Series Time!!!
Well, its finally here: World Series Time! Aces Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum will face off in game one in approximately 56 hours and I can barely contain myself. As a huge Giants fan, I wanted two things at the outset of the playoffs: 1, for the Giants to reach the World Series and, 2, for the Yankees to get beat by the Rangers (since I knew the Twins couldn't do it). In case you missed it, both of these things has come true and I am now squarely placed in a large conundrum. What the hell do you do when both of your favorites make it to the World Series?
Since I am ultimately a Giants fan to the core whereas I have recently picked up on the Rangers, I suppose I should address this problem from the San Francisco perspective. I love teams with strong pitching. Lincecum is truly "the Freak," Matt Cain is as steady as a rock and Brian Wilson is, well, Brian Wison . I can even admit, although somewhat grudgingly, that I enjoy Barry Zito's overpriced 12-6 curveball. But wait a sec, the Rangers have some outstanding chuckers, too. Cliff is the best post-season pitcher in recent history, CJ Wilson has made an amazing transformation from back-end bullpen guy to successful starter and Neftali Feliz has some wicked hair hanging out the back of is cap, not to mention a crazy ability to close games. From a pitching standpoint, the series is pretty even with an ever-so-slight nod going to San Francisco.
I’ve always appreciated teams with an ability to do “the little things” like timely hitting, bunt a runner over and cash him in, hit the much-needed sacrifice fly or steal a base when necessary. Despite their offensive ineptitude at times, the Giants can do all of the things listed above. Bruce Bochy has had an innate ability to push all of the right buttons at all of the right times this post-season. With that said, there’s only one flaw here. The Rangers can hit the ball out of the park with insane regularity. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vladamir Guerrero and Ian Kinsler can all put the ball over the wall with authority. Even Bengie Molina, Michael Young and David Murphy can swat a big fly if one leaves a fastball out over the plate. The ability to hit homeruns with frequency eliminates the need to do “the little things.” The San Francisco pitching staff had better be nearly perfect because if they get down three, four or five runs or more, they will be in a nearly impossible situation because the offense lacks the ability to pick them up. There’s a big edge to the Rangers when it comes to the bats.
There are some intangibles in this series. The coaching staff’s are both solid, so that should be a push. One area I see things turning, however, is homefield advantage. There will be seven games in San Francisco’s AT&T Park, a beautiful ballpark if I may say so, and that should heavily favor the Giants. Sure the crowd will be cheering for the home team in those games, but the real advantage lies in the conditions at the park. AT&T is a tough park to hit a homerun in, especially this late in the season. Its often windy with the wind blowing in and the damp, coastal air has a way of knocking down fly balls. By the end of October and early November, these conditions will be at their most extreme. Since Texas relies on the thin Texas night air to hit so many of their homers, they will likely see a decrease in their ability to put the ball over the fence when the series is in San Francisco. This could be critical. The Giants are accustomed to the conditions and aren’t engineered to hit the long ball anyways, so the effects are pretty negligible to them. Add this to the difficulty some newcomers have in playing balls in Triples Corner and the Giants just might be able to win three of four at home. Last but not least is the fact that San Francisco is an awesome city while George “Dub-Ya” Bush owns the Rangers. The edge here is solidly in favor of the Giants since there are more games in San Francisco than Arlington.
Through it all, I see the Rangers taking this series, probably in five or six games. Best-case-scenario is the Giants pushing a game seven in which Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum both pitch on three days rest with the wind blowing way in creating lots of fly ball outs for the Rangers while the Giants succeed at playing small-ball and stealing a home and clinching victory. But don’t bet on it. In all likelihood, Texas takes game one, the Giants game two and then the series goes to Arlington. There the Rangers will take game three, the Giants game four and the Rangers game five before the series goes back to San Fran. I believe the Rangers will take came six and win the series but, I could be wrong. I just don’t see the Giants being able to keep up offensively, especially against the incredible pitching wonder, Cliff Lee. Respecting both teams so much, there’s only one thing I know: it’s World Series Time and it’s going to be fun to watch!
Since I am ultimately a Giants fan to the core whereas I have recently picked up on the Rangers, I suppose I should address this problem from the San Francisco perspective. I love teams with strong pitching. Lincecum is truly "the Freak," Matt Cain is as steady as a rock and Brian Wilson is, well, Brian Wison . I can even admit, although somewhat grudgingly, that I enjoy Barry Zito's overpriced 12-6 curveball. But wait a sec, the Rangers have some outstanding chuckers, too. Cliff is the best post-season pitcher in recent history, CJ Wilson has made an amazing transformation from back-end bullpen guy to successful starter and Neftali Feliz has some wicked hair hanging out the back of is cap, not to mention a crazy ability to close games. From a pitching standpoint, the series is pretty even with an ever-so-slight nod going to San Francisco.
I’ve always appreciated teams with an ability to do “the little things” like timely hitting, bunt a runner over and cash him in, hit the much-needed sacrifice fly or steal a base when necessary. Despite their offensive ineptitude at times, the Giants can do all of the things listed above. Bruce Bochy has had an innate ability to push all of the right buttons at all of the right times this post-season. With that said, there’s only one flaw here. The Rangers can hit the ball out of the park with insane regularity. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vladamir Guerrero and Ian Kinsler can all put the ball over the wall with authority. Even Bengie Molina, Michael Young and David Murphy can swat a big fly if one leaves a fastball out over the plate. The ability to hit homeruns with frequency eliminates the need to do “the little things.” The San Francisco pitching staff had better be nearly perfect because if they get down three, four or five runs or more, they will be in a nearly impossible situation because the offense lacks the ability to pick them up. There’s a big edge to the Rangers when it comes to the bats.
There are some intangibles in this series. The coaching staff’s are both solid, so that should be a push. One area I see things turning, however, is homefield advantage. There will be seven games in San Francisco’s AT&T Park, a beautiful ballpark if I may say so, and that should heavily favor the Giants. Sure the crowd will be cheering for the home team in those games, but the real advantage lies in the conditions at the park. AT&T is a tough park to hit a homerun in, especially this late in the season. Its often windy with the wind blowing in and the damp, coastal air has a way of knocking down fly balls. By the end of October and early November, these conditions will be at their most extreme. Since Texas relies on the thin Texas night air to hit so many of their homers, they will likely see a decrease in their ability to put the ball over the fence when the series is in San Francisco. This could be critical. The Giants are accustomed to the conditions and aren’t engineered to hit the long ball anyways, so the effects are pretty negligible to them. Add this to the difficulty some newcomers have in playing balls in Triples Corner and the Giants just might be able to win three of four at home. Last but not least is the fact that San Francisco is an awesome city while George “Dub-Ya” Bush owns the Rangers. The edge here is solidly in favor of the Giants since there are more games in San Francisco than Arlington.
Through it all, I see the Rangers taking this series, probably in five or six games. Best-case-scenario is the Giants pushing a game seven in which Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum both pitch on three days rest with the wind blowing way in creating lots of fly ball outs for the Rangers while the Giants succeed at playing small-ball and stealing a home and clinching victory. But don’t bet on it. In all likelihood, Texas takes game one, the Giants game two and then the series goes to Arlington. There the Rangers will take game three, the Giants game four and the Rangers game five before the series goes back to San Fran. I believe the Rangers will take came six and win the series but, I could be wrong. I just don’t see the Giants being able to keep up offensively, especially against the incredible pitching wonder, Cliff Lee. Respecting both teams so much, there’s only one thing I know: it’s World Series Time and it’s going to be fun to watch!
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
From "Worst" to First
What a quick and strange trip it's been. Just a few years back, critics were teasing the NL West by referring to the division as the "NL Worst" since the division struggled to have any team from the division finish with a winning record. Most wondered how a team could make the playoffs when they barely won more than 81 games. The Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, Rockies and Dodgers meddled in mediocrity and, no matter who seemed to squeak by the rest, they were dead meat once they arrived to the postseason party. As I'm getting quite tired of hearing Lee Corso say on College Gameday every Saturday morning, "Not so fast, my friend!"
The former worst division in all of baseball has quickly become baseball's most competitive division from top to bottom. In 2008, the Dodger snuck into the playoff by winning a paltry 84 games while the Diamondbacks were somewhat "hot" on their tail by finishing with 82 wins on the season. In case your wondering, those are winning percentages of .519 and .506, respectively. During the same season, 84 wins would have placed the division-winning Dodgers in fifth place if they were in the NL Central instead of the appropriately named NL Worst. Believe it or not, the division was actually less competitive in 2005 when only one team, the Padres, posted a winning season by coming out ahead in 82 of the team's 162 contests, only one game over .500. During that very same season, the entire NL East finished with better records, save the Washington Nationals who won only 81 games on the year, just one short of the division-winning Padres. You clearly get the point, the National League West clearly earned the moniker of the "NL Worst".
With October 2010 just around the corner and the magic of the playoffs in the air, the super-competitive NL West is the only division race still going on. In fact, three teams are still in the hunt for the division crown and the NL Wild Card. The Giants are narrowly ahead of the Padres by one game with each team having five games left in the season. Three of those five games are against one another and will likely decide who wins the division. The Colorado Rockies aren't far off the pace and, if either the Giants or Padres get exceptionally hot and sweep one another, the Rockies may be able to sneak into second and take the Wild Card, thanks in large part to a faltering Atlanta Braves team that is fading fast in the NL East. The Rockies will have to do their best to sweep the Cardinals in their final series of the season and overcome their terrible 31-46 road record to do so. As it stands now, it appears that either the Giants or the Padres will win the division with the second place finisher settling for the Wild Card.
As mentioned above, the final series of the season will see the Giants face off against the Padres at AT&T Park in San Francisco with a division crown on the line. NL West supremacy will be up for grabs and, with this being the only race yet to be declared, nearly all of the baseball world will likely be watching. Who would have though this would be the case just a few years back? The Phillies and Reds know that they cannot afford to take either of these teams lying down since both have capable pitching to go along with scrappy, timely offenses. If you turn on your TV set this weekend to watch a little baseball, like most other baseball-loving Americans, you'll notice a fantastic is ripe for the taking. And if you pay close attention to these teams you'll clearly know that you're not watching the NL Worst anymore. In fact, you could now refer to it as the NL First.
The former worst division in all of baseball has quickly become baseball's most competitive division from top to bottom. In 2008, the Dodger snuck into the playoff by winning a paltry 84 games while the Diamondbacks were somewhat "hot" on their tail by finishing with 82 wins on the season. In case your wondering, those are winning percentages of .519 and .506, respectively. During the same season, 84 wins would have placed the division-winning Dodgers in fifth place if they were in the NL Central instead of the appropriately named NL Worst. Believe it or not, the division was actually less competitive in 2005 when only one team, the Padres, posted a winning season by coming out ahead in 82 of the team's 162 contests, only one game over .500. During that very same season, the entire NL East finished with better records, save the Washington Nationals who won only 81 games on the year, just one short of the division-winning Padres. You clearly get the point, the National League West clearly earned the moniker of the "NL Worst".
With October 2010 just around the corner and the magic of the playoffs in the air, the super-competitive NL West is the only division race still going on. In fact, three teams are still in the hunt for the division crown and the NL Wild Card. The Giants are narrowly ahead of the Padres by one game with each team having five games left in the season. Three of those five games are against one another and will likely decide who wins the division. The Colorado Rockies aren't far off the pace and, if either the Giants or Padres get exceptionally hot and sweep one another, the Rockies may be able to sneak into second and take the Wild Card, thanks in large part to a faltering Atlanta Braves team that is fading fast in the NL East. The Rockies will have to do their best to sweep the Cardinals in their final series of the season and overcome their terrible 31-46 road record to do so. As it stands now, it appears that either the Giants or the Padres will win the division with the second place finisher settling for the Wild Card.
As mentioned above, the final series of the season will see the Giants face off against the Padres at AT&T Park in San Francisco with a division crown on the line. NL West supremacy will be up for grabs and, with this being the only race yet to be declared, nearly all of the baseball world will likely be watching. Who would have though this would be the case just a few years back? The Phillies and Reds know that they cannot afford to take either of these teams lying down since both have capable pitching to go along with scrappy, timely offenses. If you turn on your TV set this weekend to watch a little baseball, like most other baseball-loving Americans, you'll notice a fantastic is ripe for the taking. And if you pay close attention to these teams you'll clearly know that you're not watching the NL Worst anymore. In fact, you could now refer to it as the NL First.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Does it Matter Who Wins?
When one sees a question like this, and if you're self-respecting fan, one has to answer, "Hell yes!" But in the instance of the World Series looming ahead of us this year, do any of the potential National League teams have the talent and ability to beat the potential American League champs? The answer is yes, but its a tentative yes at best. Here's why:
First of all, we have to identify just who the National League champs will need to beat to win the World Series. In the AL West, Texas is all but certain to take the title. Oakland has made a nice little run lately but Texas, with a healthy Cliff Lee back in the rotation, the Rangers should finish the season atop the standings. In the Central, it looks like the Twins have a stranglehold on the division. The White Sox have done all they can to keep it close but, barring a epic collapse, Minnesota will likely hang on to represent the AL Central in the postseason. The AL East is home to tightest matchup to determine a division. At the moment, the Yankees have a half-game lead over the Rays. This one is a toss up but with a healthy A-Rod back in the lineup, New York seems likely to hold onto the division. Tampa Bay, however, has a large lead in the Wild Card standings and will almost certainly still make the postseason. In the end, the AL should be represented by Texas, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay.
These four teams area all solid. They are all home to strong postseason rotations and have powerful offenses. Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, CC Sabathia and David Price are all legitimate aces that have the ability to shut down the opponent. Behind them are a host of young, up-an-coming arms that have posted solid seasons and can provide stability each respective team's rotation. Texas is lead by Nelson Cruz and Vladamir Guerrero, Minnesota by Joe Mauer, New York by Mark Texiera, A-Rod and Robinson Cano while Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria provides the pop that makes the Rays go. Each team has the ability to score a ton of runs on the opponent and still play solid defense. The National League champs will be up against a tall order no matter who they face.
On the NL side of the equation, the races are much tighter. Only the Cincinnati Reds have a virtual lock on their division by being a surprising seven games up on the Cardinals. In the West, San Diego has weathered the storm and emerged from their slump to right the ship and are locked in a battle with the San Francisco. This race could go either way. San Diego has significantly overachieved this season and they could falter down the stretch while the Giants have made several roster additions to attempt to improve their offense but it may not be enough. In the East, The Phillies have once again got hot (and healthy) at the right time and have evened up the division against the Atlanta Braves. The nod has to go to the Phillies in this race with the presence of Halladay and the dynamic Philly offense. Atlanta is fading fast and just doesn't have the firepower to keep up so they will most likely have to battle with a few teams for the Wild Card.
In the end, I believe that the Phillies will take the East, the Giants will win the West, the Reds will hold onto the Central while the Padres (or Rockies) will take the Wild Card. If this is the case, only the Phillies and Reds have the ability to really challenge any of the American League playoff teams. These two teams can score runs in bunches and have enough pitching to keep the opponent in-check. Now these rotations aren't exactly stifling but can be effective. Roy Halladay is probably the only ace amongst the group but the bullpen of the Reds is quite impressive while the Phillies' 'pen is effective at times, as well. Joey Votto is a legitimate MVP candidate while the Phillies order with Howard, Utley and Werth in the middle should scare anybody.
So, does it really matter who emerges with the National League pennant? Of course it does, but they will still be considered the underdog regardless of who comes out of the American League. The AL teams are simply too powerful on paper to make any of the NL teams look like juggernauts. Only the Reds and Phillies have a realistic chance at taking down the rotation-rich, offense-minded American League pennant winner. Look for the American league to capture yet another World Series title in October.
First of all, we have to identify just who the National League champs will need to beat to win the World Series. In the AL West, Texas is all but certain to take the title. Oakland has made a nice little run lately but Texas, with a healthy Cliff Lee back in the rotation, the Rangers should finish the season atop the standings. In the Central, it looks like the Twins have a stranglehold on the division. The White Sox have done all they can to keep it close but, barring a epic collapse, Minnesota will likely hang on to represent the AL Central in the postseason. The AL East is home to tightest matchup to determine a division. At the moment, the Yankees have a half-game lead over the Rays. This one is a toss up but with a healthy A-Rod back in the lineup, New York seems likely to hold onto the division. Tampa Bay, however, has a large lead in the Wild Card standings and will almost certainly still make the postseason. In the end, the AL should be represented by Texas, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay.
These four teams area all solid. They are all home to strong postseason rotations and have powerful offenses. Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, CC Sabathia and David Price are all legitimate aces that have the ability to shut down the opponent. Behind them are a host of young, up-an-coming arms that have posted solid seasons and can provide stability each respective team's rotation. Texas is lead by Nelson Cruz and Vladamir Guerrero, Minnesota by Joe Mauer, New York by Mark Texiera, A-Rod and Robinson Cano while Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria provides the pop that makes the Rays go. Each team has the ability to score a ton of runs on the opponent and still play solid defense. The National League champs will be up against a tall order no matter who they face.
On the NL side of the equation, the races are much tighter. Only the Cincinnati Reds have a virtual lock on their division by being a surprising seven games up on the Cardinals. In the West, San Diego has weathered the storm and emerged from their slump to right the ship and are locked in a battle with the San Francisco. This race could go either way. San Diego has significantly overachieved this season and they could falter down the stretch while the Giants have made several roster additions to attempt to improve their offense but it may not be enough. In the East, The Phillies have once again got hot (and healthy) at the right time and have evened up the division against the Atlanta Braves. The nod has to go to the Phillies in this race with the presence of Halladay and the dynamic Philly offense. Atlanta is fading fast and just doesn't have the firepower to keep up so they will most likely have to battle with a few teams for the Wild Card.
In the end, I believe that the Phillies will take the East, the Giants will win the West, the Reds will hold onto the Central while the Padres (or Rockies) will take the Wild Card. If this is the case, only the Phillies and Reds have the ability to really challenge any of the American League playoff teams. These two teams can score runs in bunches and have enough pitching to keep the opponent in-check. Now these rotations aren't exactly stifling but can be effective. Roy Halladay is probably the only ace amongst the group but the bullpen of the Reds is quite impressive while the Phillies' 'pen is effective at times, as well. Joey Votto is a legitimate MVP candidate while the Phillies order with Howard, Utley and Werth in the middle should scare anybody.
So, does it really matter who emerges with the National League pennant? Of course it does, but they will still be considered the underdog regardless of who comes out of the American League. The AL teams are simply too powerful on paper to make any of the NL teams look like juggernauts. Only the Reds and Phillies have a realistic chance at taking down the rotation-rich, offense-minded American League pennant winner. Look for the American league to capture yet another World Series title in October.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Who Are The Dodgers Kidding?
With the N.L. West race coming down to really a two team battle, the Los Angeles Dodgers are clearly on the outside looking in. But don't tell that to their front office. While San Diego is running away with things and the Giants being the only team with a realistic chance to compete with them, the Dodgers could make a handful of moves that would benefit them for years to come. Unfortunately it doesn't look like Ned Colleti will be able to swallow his pride to get it done.
First and foremost, the Mannywood days in L.A. are done and everybody knows it. Manny has worn out his welcome in Dodger Blue. He's raking in a ton of cash and giving back very little on the field (sound familiar, Matt Kemp?) since he's spent so much time on the DL once again this year. Colleti had the cajones to put the slugger on waivers and, as anticipated, the White Sox have won the waiver claim on Man-Ram but its unclear at this point whether or not a deal will get done. Trading Manny would save the Dodgers a very nice chunk of change and also net them some prospects or possibly a MLB-ready guy right now. Its silly to think that this may not get done since the benefits are so obvious. You'd have to think the Dodgers would be very aggressive sellers of Ramirez but that may not be the case.
The acquisition of Ted Lilly was a smart move approaching the trade deadline. If the Dodgers were to contend this season then Lilly would be an important piece. Things haven't worked out for the team but Lilly has been excellent. Despite his success and modest price tag, the Dodgers have place Lilly on waivers. The only reason to trade Lilly would be if the Dodgers were truly rebuilding but with their talent and reluctance to trade the aging and injured Ramirez, rebuilding doesn't appear to be the case. Lilly is affordable and effective but he is made available while Ramirez is expensive and ineffective (yet somehow in demand) and they won't make the deal with the White Sox. Is anyone else confused here?
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to recognize the situation that their currently in. They are out of the playoff picture and should be focussing their efforts on 2011. Getting something in return for Manny Ramirez (aside from salary relief) would be a plus. Retaining Ted Lilly to help Clayton Kershaw hold down the rotation for an affordable price would set them up for next season. Will the front office see the writing on the wall in time to get things squared away and swallow their pride to ensure that it happens? We'll have to wait and see.
First and foremost, the Mannywood days in L.A. are done and everybody knows it. Manny has worn out his welcome in Dodger Blue. He's raking in a ton of cash and giving back very little on the field (sound familiar, Matt Kemp?) since he's spent so much time on the DL once again this year. Colleti had the cajones to put the slugger on waivers and, as anticipated, the White Sox have won the waiver claim on Man-Ram but its unclear at this point whether or not a deal will get done. Trading Manny would save the Dodgers a very nice chunk of change and also net them some prospects or possibly a MLB-ready guy right now. Its silly to think that this may not get done since the benefits are so obvious. You'd have to think the Dodgers would be very aggressive sellers of Ramirez but that may not be the case.
The acquisition of Ted Lilly was a smart move approaching the trade deadline. If the Dodgers were to contend this season then Lilly would be an important piece. Things haven't worked out for the team but Lilly has been excellent. Despite his success and modest price tag, the Dodgers have place Lilly on waivers. The only reason to trade Lilly would be if the Dodgers were truly rebuilding but with their talent and reluctance to trade the aging and injured Ramirez, rebuilding doesn't appear to be the case. Lilly is affordable and effective but he is made available while Ramirez is expensive and ineffective (yet somehow in demand) and they won't make the deal with the White Sox. Is anyone else confused here?
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to recognize the situation that their currently in. They are out of the playoff picture and should be focussing their efforts on 2011. Getting something in return for Manny Ramirez (aside from salary relief) would be a plus. Retaining Ted Lilly to help Clayton Kershaw hold down the rotation for an affordable price would set them up for next season. Will the front office see the writing on the wall in time to get things squared away and swallow their pride to ensure that it happens? We'll have to wait and see.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Who's got next?
Living in the Northwest, its been a tough baseball season. The Mariners were many people's sneaky pick to win the AL West but, in case you haven't noticed, that hasn't exactly worked out. A fired manager and possibly 100 losses later, the Mariners will find themselves in a precarious position. Jack Z will have to ask himself whether or not to try to win in 2011 or begin to rebuild completely. Since the Mariners were largely inactive come the trade deadline and haven't completely shelved their veterans to give experience to their young guns, signs point to the M's attempting to be competitive once again in 2011. They have reason to give it a try, though, as they've been quite competitive over the last month, winning several series along the way. Looking ahead, there are clearly some question marks for the M's in 2011 but there's no reason to think they won't be competitive. Here's a position-by-position breakdown of what to look for next season.
Behind the plate, Adam Moore will continue to get a chance to develop. Josh Bard didn't provide much for the Mariners and what you see is what you get with Rob Johnson (poor catching and worse offense). Moore is the catcher of the future for Seattle but they will definitely need a reliable backup. Don't expect them to spend much on acquiring another big-league catcher and while they shouldn't even consider it, Johnson could be a cheap option. Unless Jack decides to overpay for a veteran backstop, pencil in Adam Moore as the 2011 starter.
At first base, Justin Smoak should be the Opening Day starter. As the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak didn't transition well to Seattle and was sent down to AAA after about a month or so with the big club. His AAA numbers are relatively good as he's posted an .897 OPS and 6 HRs in 33 games. He still manages to walk a ton and get on base at an impressive clip so he'll likely get another chance to start the season in the bigs, especially if he has a decent Spring Training next April. Current first baseman Casey Kotchman will like be non-tendered in the offseason given that he has a .632 OPS in 97 games. Gold-Glove caliber defense or not, Kotchman hasn't done nearly enough with the bat to be re-signed by the club.
Second base is maned by Chone Figgins and although there have been some rumors of him being traded (notably to the Braves), I expect the Mariners to keep him after giving him a four year deal in the offseason. He started the season tremendously slow but has been impressive since the All-Star break. A strong second half in 2010 could likely carry over into a solid 2011. Figgins is all but a lock at second.
Third base is currently manned by Jose Lopez but I don't expect that to last much longer. While he made the switch from second to third successfully in terms of defense, Jose is experiencing his worst season offensively. His on-base percentage is a disgusting .270 and all of his other offensive numbers are down as well. His plate discipline continues to be poor and his power has disappeared which makes him another non-tender candidate. This is the one area where the Mariners could look to make a splash. While there won't be many options to sign in terms of free agents, the M's could explore trade opportunities. Matt Mangini has been successful in AAA this season but won't likely be a strong candidate to begin the season in Seattle. Jack will have some work to do to fill the void at third base for 2011. The outcome at the hot-corner is unclear at this point in time.
Shortstop was supposed to be manned by Jack Wilson in 2010 but it comes as no surprise that Jack has had trouble staying healthy, at one point even considering a mid-season retirement. Josh Wilson, however, has filled in admirably. Although not as good as the elder Wilson, his defense is solid and he can hit some but not a lot. Wilson is really best suited to be a utility guy but has been forced into the everyday lineup for the bulk of 2010. In 2011, however, the management could look to add a piece or simply give Josh Wilson another shot. Like third base, the free agent field is pretty thin so any significant upgrade would have to come through a trade. I would look for them to stick with Wilson but also explore what's out there.
Left field is an area where things start to get interesting. There are a host of players that could be fits for the club, including the developing Michael Saunders who probably should get the nod in 2011 as he was one of the clubs top prospects coming into 2010 and has had some success at the plate this season while playing terrific defense. Seattle hasn't given up on Matt Tuiasosopo either and he's gotten some time in left this season as well. While some Seattle fans would like to do it, they can't forget about Milton Bradley, either. Depending on what happens at the DH position, Bradley and his sub-par defense could wind up in left field, relegating Saunders to a backup role. The Mariners are committed to Bradley so he's not going away, they just have to figure out how to use him. Saunders should be the left fielder but that doesn't mean he will be.
Franklin Gutierrez is having another fantastic season defensively in center field. After a red-hot start to the season, however, Guti has struggled to keep his average over .250 but has been a consistent contributer with the stick. He signed a four-year extension this winter and will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2011.
While he's in jeopardy of not reaching 200 hits for the first time in his 10-year career this season, Ichiro Suzuki will still be the M's right fielder in 2011. The perennial All-Star and outstanding leadoff hitter will surely take the first at-bat for the Mariners again in 2011. He and Gutierrez are the surest things in the Mariners lineup.
At DH, the Mariners have a few options. Since re-acquiring Russell "The Muscle" Branyan this summer, he's been again dinged up but very potent when in the lineup. The Mariners could keep him as he'd clearly be the hitter with the most power in the lineup but he is going to be a free agent in 2011 so they'd have to pay a good little bit to keep him a Mariner. He is also a first base candidate but that blocks the path of top prospect and first baseman of the future, Justin Smoak. Given Russell's injury history, he's best suited to be a big-bopping DH. Milton Bradley will be in the final year of his deal and could also be the designated hitter if he isn't in left field. He's been super-disappointing in 2010 and if he doesn't get it together early on in 2011, he could be DFA'd. The Mariners will surely be happy to get out from under that contract (or essentially the contract of Carlos Silva) once 2011 is over. Heading into the season, however, the Mariners have options at DH and the first piece of the puzzle will be shown when they decide whether or not to re-sign Branyan.
The rotation is in relatively good shape looking ahead. Felix Hernandez has been solid yet again for the Mariners and will likely make another run at the Cy Young in 2011. Despite never making it into a game with Seattle in 2010, Erik Bedard will probably be healthy come next year and could be an $8 million gamble as he has a mutual option for 2011. Provided he can attain some level of success, he would make a great number two pitcher behind King Felix, especially since he's a lefty. But at $8 million I wouldn't bet on it. Jason Vargas has been the surprise of 2010 and will have the opportunity to prove it wasn't a fluke. The lefty could fill the third or fourth slot in the rotation in 2011. Doug Fister started the year on fire but came back to earth after a DL stint. Look for him to take over the forth or fifth spot in the rotation and continue to mature. Youngsters Luke French and David Pauley could get looks in Spring Training while one would have to figure that Ryan Rowland-Smith is all but done as a big-league starter after having one of the worst season in recent memory by any full-time starting pitcher (1-10, 6.96 ERA, 40 BB, 38K in 98 IP).
Seattle could definitely stand to add a starter or two in the offseason. Bedard is a long-shot in my opinion since Seattle would have to pick up the $8 million mutual option on him and he hasn't really pitched at all in the last two years. Guys like Bronson Arroyo (if his $11 million club option isn't picked up), Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harrang, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb and Todd Wellemeyer will all be options for the Mariners. Although these pitchers won't strike the average fan as all that exciting, Correia and Lilly are having strong second halves, Pavano has been surprisingly solid and would have to likely be overpaid to get away from Minnesota, Webb is a proven star coming off of a severe injury, Harrang and Arroyo are innings-eaters while Bonderman and Wellemeyer are coming off disappointing seasons after having success in the past. Best of all, these buys are affordable for Seattle and could help fill out the rotation in various capacities. Hernandez, Vargas and Fister are locks to make the rotation but the rest is unsettled. Look for the Mariners to add at least one starter via free agency in the offseason.
After the bullpen was stellar in 2009, it was a major let-down in 2010. This was not all that surprising after several members overachieved in 2009 and fell back to reality this season. David Aardsma will likely be the closer again and get a chance to redeem himself. If Mark Lowe can return from a back injury that shut him down in 2010, he will have a place in the 'pen and could be the set-up man once again. Brandon League will be returning after a decent season where he has served in nearly every bullpen capacity at one point or another this year. Aside from those three, the rest is up in the air. Garret Olson, Brian Sweeney, Sean White, David Pauley and Luke French could all be in the mix. There's a bevy of option on the free agent market as well so Seattle could add pieces if they wish. The bottom line is that the 'pen has to be better for the Mariners to have any kind of success in '11.
To recap, Seattle has some reasonable pieces in place for the future but they also have plenty of areas to shore up. They will almost certainly need to add a third baseman, could potentially add a shortstop, will need to make difficult decisions at first base, left field and DH, could definitely use at least one quality starter (if not two) and should explore adding a bullpen piece or two. The most crucial key to 2011 success, however, lies in the achievement of players that are currently on the roster and will be counted on again next season. Many players, such as Figgins, Bradley, Gutierrez and Aardsma have severely underachieved and will need to get closer to their 2010 forms if the M's want to make a legitimate run at things in 2011, which is not completely out of the question.
Behind the plate, Adam Moore will continue to get a chance to develop. Josh Bard didn't provide much for the Mariners and what you see is what you get with Rob Johnson (poor catching and worse offense). Moore is the catcher of the future for Seattle but they will definitely need a reliable backup. Don't expect them to spend much on acquiring another big-league catcher and while they shouldn't even consider it, Johnson could be a cheap option. Unless Jack decides to overpay for a veteran backstop, pencil in Adam Moore as the 2011 starter.
At first base, Justin Smoak should be the Opening Day starter. As the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak didn't transition well to Seattle and was sent down to AAA after about a month or so with the big club. His AAA numbers are relatively good as he's posted an .897 OPS and 6 HRs in 33 games. He still manages to walk a ton and get on base at an impressive clip so he'll likely get another chance to start the season in the bigs, especially if he has a decent Spring Training next April. Current first baseman Casey Kotchman will like be non-tendered in the offseason given that he has a .632 OPS in 97 games. Gold-Glove caliber defense or not, Kotchman hasn't done nearly enough with the bat to be re-signed by the club.
Second base is maned by Chone Figgins and although there have been some rumors of him being traded (notably to the Braves), I expect the Mariners to keep him after giving him a four year deal in the offseason. He started the season tremendously slow but has been impressive since the All-Star break. A strong second half in 2010 could likely carry over into a solid 2011. Figgins is all but a lock at second.
Third base is currently manned by Jose Lopez but I don't expect that to last much longer. While he made the switch from second to third successfully in terms of defense, Jose is experiencing his worst season offensively. His on-base percentage is a disgusting .270 and all of his other offensive numbers are down as well. His plate discipline continues to be poor and his power has disappeared which makes him another non-tender candidate. This is the one area where the Mariners could look to make a splash. While there won't be many options to sign in terms of free agents, the M's could explore trade opportunities. Matt Mangini has been successful in AAA this season but won't likely be a strong candidate to begin the season in Seattle. Jack will have some work to do to fill the void at third base for 2011. The outcome at the hot-corner is unclear at this point in time.
Shortstop was supposed to be manned by Jack Wilson in 2010 but it comes as no surprise that Jack has had trouble staying healthy, at one point even considering a mid-season retirement. Josh Wilson, however, has filled in admirably. Although not as good as the elder Wilson, his defense is solid and he can hit some but not a lot. Wilson is really best suited to be a utility guy but has been forced into the everyday lineup for the bulk of 2010. In 2011, however, the management could look to add a piece or simply give Josh Wilson another shot. Like third base, the free agent field is pretty thin so any significant upgrade would have to come through a trade. I would look for them to stick with Wilson but also explore what's out there.
Left field is an area where things start to get interesting. There are a host of players that could be fits for the club, including the developing Michael Saunders who probably should get the nod in 2011 as he was one of the clubs top prospects coming into 2010 and has had some success at the plate this season while playing terrific defense. Seattle hasn't given up on Matt Tuiasosopo either and he's gotten some time in left this season as well. While some Seattle fans would like to do it, they can't forget about Milton Bradley, either. Depending on what happens at the DH position, Bradley and his sub-par defense could wind up in left field, relegating Saunders to a backup role. The Mariners are committed to Bradley so he's not going away, they just have to figure out how to use him. Saunders should be the left fielder but that doesn't mean he will be.
Franklin Gutierrez is having another fantastic season defensively in center field. After a red-hot start to the season, however, Guti has struggled to keep his average over .250 but has been a consistent contributer with the stick. He signed a four-year extension this winter and will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2011.
While he's in jeopardy of not reaching 200 hits for the first time in his 10-year career this season, Ichiro Suzuki will still be the M's right fielder in 2011. The perennial All-Star and outstanding leadoff hitter will surely take the first at-bat for the Mariners again in 2011. He and Gutierrez are the surest things in the Mariners lineup.
At DH, the Mariners have a few options. Since re-acquiring Russell "The Muscle" Branyan this summer, he's been again dinged up but very potent when in the lineup. The Mariners could keep him as he'd clearly be the hitter with the most power in the lineup but he is going to be a free agent in 2011 so they'd have to pay a good little bit to keep him a Mariner. He is also a first base candidate but that blocks the path of top prospect and first baseman of the future, Justin Smoak. Given Russell's injury history, he's best suited to be a big-bopping DH. Milton Bradley will be in the final year of his deal and could also be the designated hitter if he isn't in left field. He's been super-disappointing in 2010 and if he doesn't get it together early on in 2011, he could be DFA'd. The Mariners will surely be happy to get out from under that contract (or essentially the contract of Carlos Silva) once 2011 is over. Heading into the season, however, the Mariners have options at DH and the first piece of the puzzle will be shown when they decide whether or not to re-sign Branyan.
The rotation is in relatively good shape looking ahead. Felix Hernandez has been solid yet again for the Mariners and will likely make another run at the Cy Young in 2011. Despite never making it into a game with Seattle in 2010, Erik Bedard will probably be healthy come next year and could be an $8 million gamble as he has a mutual option for 2011. Provided he can attain some level of success, he would make a great number two pitcher behind King Felix, especially since he's a lefty. But at $8 million I wouldn't bet on it. Jason Vargas has been the surprise of 2010 and will have the opportunity to prove it wasn't a fluke. The lefty could fill the third or fourth slot in the rotation in 2011. Doug Fister started the year on fire but came back to earth after a DL stint. Look for him to take over the forth or fifth spot in the rotation and continue to mature. Youngsters Luke French and David Pauley could get looks in Spring Training while one would have to figure that Ryan Rowland-Smith is all but done as a big-league starter after having one of the worst season in recent memory by any full-time starting pitcher (1-10, 6.96 ERA, 40 BB, 38K in 98 IP).
Seattle could definitely stand to add a starter or two in the offseason. Bedard is a long-shot in my opinion since Seattle would have to pick up the $8 million mutual option on him and he hasn't really pitched at all in the last two years. Guys like Bronson Arroyo (if his $11 million club option isn't picked up), Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harrang, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb and Todd Wellemeyer will all be options for the Mariners. Although these pitchers won't strike the average fan as all that exciting, Correia and Lilly are having strong second halves, Pavano has been surprisingly solid and would have to likely be overpaid to get away from Minnesota, Webb is a proven star coming off of a severe injury, Harrang and Arroyo are innings-eaters while Bonderman and Wellemeyer are coming off disappointing seasons after having success in the past. Best of all, these buys are affordable for Seattle and could help fill out the rotation in various capacities. Hernandez, Vargas and Fister are locks to make the rotation but the rest is unsettled. Look for the Mariners to add at least one starter via free agency in the offseason.
After the bullpen was stellar in 2009, it was a major let-down in 2010. This was not all that surprising after several members overachieved in 2009 and fell back to reality this season. David Aardsma will likely be the closer again and get a chance to redeem himself. If Mark Lowe can return from a back injury that shut him down in 2010, he will have a place in the 'pen and could be the set-up man once again. Brandon League will be returning after a decent season where he has served in nearly every bullpen capacity at one point or another this year. Aside from those three, the rest is up in the air. Garret Olson, Brian Sweeney, Sean White, David Pauley and Luke French could all be in the mix. There's a bevy of option on the free agent market as well so Seattle could add pieces if they wish. The bottom line is that the 'pen has to be better for the Mariners to have any kind of success in '11.
To recap, Seattle has some reasonable pieces in place for the future but they also have plenty of areas to shore up. They will almost certainly need to add a third baseman, could potentially add a shortstop, will need to make difficult decisions at first base, left field and DH, could definitely use at least one quality starter (if not two) and should explore adding a bullpen piece or two. The most crucial key to 2011 success, however, lies in the achievement of players that are currently on the roster and will be counted on again next season. Many players, such as Figgins, Bradley, Gutierrez and Aardsma have severely underachieved and will need to get closer to their 2010 forms if the M's want to make a legitimate run at things in 2011, which is not completely out of the question.
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