Texas on Top

The Rangers are the best team in baseball.  There’s really little doubt about it.  At this point, in this season, I think they’ve made it pretty obvious.  They just put a public beatdown on the Angels during Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.  If you don’t recall, the Angels were supposed to challenge the Rangers for the AL West but that doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon.  They have the second best record in baseball (to the Dodgers) and are an impressive 13-6 on the road thus far.  They’ve truly got it all: pitching, hitting and defense.

When lefty CJ Wilson left Texas for division-rival Los Angeles in free agency, most of us saw the Rangers as taking a pretty big hit.  John Daniels responded by rolling the dice on Yu Darvish, the 25 year-old phenom from Japan.  Japanese players have been  volatile in Major League Baseball, but it appears the Darvish gamble has paid dividends.  He’s jumped right into the rotation, gone 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA (3.59 xFIP) and over 10 K/9.  Derek Holland, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison have all been reliable starters, too.  Holland is the ace of the staff and is continuing to mature while Harrison has had some tough outings and bad luck (5.23 ERA vs. 3.73 xFIP).  Neftali Feliz has been erratic but effective.  If he doesn’t get it together, though, his 3.38 ERA won’t last. 

It’s not just the rotation, though.  Texas’ bullpen has sparkled behind closer Joe Nathan (another gamble that’s paid off), setup men Mike Adams (last season’s bounty from a trade with the Padres) and Alexi Ogando.  Mark Lowe, Koji Uehara and Robbie Ross have been just as good in middle relief.  This bullpen is deep on quality arms, to say the least. 

At the plate, the Rangers can mash with the best of them.  In fact, they are the best of them  so far.  They lead baseball in runs scored (194), RBI (188), hits (353) and average (.291), are second in on-base percentage (.349), are third in homeruns with 52 (behind the Orioles and Yankees) and rank seventh in strikeout rate (17.6 %).  The team has been somewhat lucky with a .322 BABIP.  This tells us that they will have some slightly tougher luck going forward, but with their ability to hit the ball over the fence with regularity and leg out some hits (Andrus, Kinsler, Gentry), they won’t plummet.  They posted a .304 BABIP last season and a .307 in 2010, so they are consistently among the leaders of baseball in this category.  When you swing the bats like they do, hits have a way of happening.  Just ask Jered Weaver, who came off a no-hitter to throw 3.1 innings tonight, giving up 8 earned on 10 hits (he only walked one, so the Rangers swung their way to that snowman).

Josh Hamilton is playing out of his mind right now.  He has 18 homeruns and 41 RBI (leads baseball in each category) in only 31 games.  Of course that’s not sustainable, but it’s not as if he’s exactly going to disappear and hit .180 the rest of the way through the season.  This guy can hang in there and bang all season long.  Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler have been awesome table-setters with a .391 and .352 OBP, respectively.  Adrian Beltre continues to hit the ball hard and Michael young continues to be Michael Young.  Mike Napoli had one hot stretch but has cooled off and Nelson Cruz really hasn’t got it going yet.  Those two are strikeout machines (Cruz has a 24.7 K% and Napoli’s is 29.2%) but are always a threat to go yard.  Craig Gentry has been good in his spot starts and as a defensive replacement.  There are really no weaknesses here.  David Murphy is available off the bench and can contribute, too.  Opposing pitchers cringe when these guys come to town.

UZR loves the Rangers in the field, too.  They have the highest UZR rating thus far and, although there are some serious questions of sample size, the eye test proves that they play good defense.  Beltre is a Gold Glove third baseman, Andrus at short is really blossoming, has plus range and a good arm while Kinsler is above average at second.  Mitch Moreland isn’t the most potent first baseman at the plate but can pick it defensively.  Murphy and Gentry can run down anything in the outfield, Cruz is a sold right fielder and Hamilton has been much better since moving to left field full time.  Of the starters, only Mike Napoli rates as below average.  Michael Young can play all over as a super sub when he isn’t DH’ing, which offers nice flexibility, but he isn’t a great fielder.  Overall, they play solid infield defense, being strongest at short, third and first.  In the outfield, they have two above-average centerfielders who can run ‘em down, while the corner outfielders are also plus defenders. 

The one thing that can slow these guys down is the injury bug.  Hamilton in particular is a real concern.  He’s missed large chunks of the last three seasons, missing 73 games in ’09, 29 games in 2010 and 41 games last year.  Moving him to left field will help keep him on the field longer, but it’s almost a “when” instead of “if” with him.  Beltre has been solid throughout his career but missed some time last year and in ’09, plus he’s 32.  Kinsler has been dinged up from time to time and Nelson Cruz has a pretty robust injury history.  The starting pitching looks young and solid (Feliz is the only worry), but the bullpen has some injury concerns, namely Joe Nathan.  If he can stay healthy, they have enough depth to weather any other storms.

Even if injuries do bite this team, as they certainly will, the Rangers can put their top-rated farm system to use in an attempt to plug holes.  With the consensus minor league system in baseball, Texas is built for the present and the future.  If they don’t have an internal solution to fit their needs, they have plenty of pieces to flip for available big league talent. 

This club will be tough to stop as they are solid in all three aspects of the game.  They can pitch well and close down games.  They can hang up crooked numbers in any inning of any game.  In the outfield they can cover ground and the infield is full of talented fielders, too.  The top-rated farm system in baseball puts this team at the top into the foreseeable future, as well.  Simply said, the Rangers are the best team in baseball. 

AL Grades Reviewed

Last week I posted a review of my preseason divisional rankings.  We’re over 30 games in now and some trends are starting to appear.  Sample size problems still can skew things somewhat, but when you reason and look at underlying factors, some conclusions can be drawn.  Now, let’s see how I did picking these division standings, shall we?

AL East Preseason Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Current AL East Standings

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays (2.0)

New York Yankees (2.5)

Boston Red Sox (7.5)

Well, I certainly didn’t expect to see the O’s atop the standings in mid May, and neither did anyone else.  Can they stay there?  I think we all know the answer to that question.  They’ve gotten off to quick starts before but they simply don’t have what it takes to hang for 162 games in this division.  The Rays are even with the O’s currently and have been playing really good baseball, despite Longoria being on the shelf.  The starting pitching has been fantastic for Tampa Bay and that should continue.  The one thing they could use is bullpen depth.  New York is playing well, too, and Jeter is out of his mind right now.  He just became the fastest Yankee player to 50 hits in a season in history, despite the fact that he’s getting pretty old.  We all know about Rivera, so the bullpen is something to watch.  Toronto can slug but can they do anything else?  Starting pitching is a relative strength, but it’s nothing that’s going to carry them to the playoffs.  I missed on my Boston prediction, but I did throw out a ton of caution with them, mostly on injuries.  And, sure enough, they’ve been incredibly bitten by the injury bug.  Starting pitching is a problem for them as is their bullpen and outfield.  Will Middlebrooks is the lone bright spot.

I still like the Rays to win this division.  New York should challenge them all year long and the Red Sox will likely put a little mid-summer run together but I expect it to be too little too late.  The grind of the season should put Toronto and Baltimore where they belong eventually.

My Prediction Grade: C+

Preseason AL Central Prediction

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Current AL Central Standings

Cleveland Indians

Detroit Tigers (2.0)

Chicago White Sox (3.5)

Kansas City Royals (6.5)

Minnesota Twins (10.0)

Cleveland has been surprisingly solid so far.  They’re a scrappy bunch of ball players.  Starting pitching is a little problematic, which I expect to catch up with them, but their bullpen is decent, especially with Chris Perez starting to iron things out.  Detroit isn’t mashing quite as much as expected, but I think that will pick up once things heat up.  Make no doubt about it, they can still rake, but I don’t think we’ve seen them at full mojo yet.  Their starting pitching has been very good, especially with the successful addition of Drew Smyly.  The bullpen is another matter: ugly.  Chicago has been a surprise, with Jake Peavy and Adam Dunn have huge bounce-back campaigns, right about the time most of us had written them off.  Despite some bullpen uncertainties, they have a chance to hang in there for a while.  Kansas City has been up and down thus far.  Hosmer and Moustakas haven’t carried the team as much as expected and their starting pitching has been hit or miss.  Minnesota has been terrible and should likely stay that way.  Ron Gardenhire is starting to feel his seat get warm, but really that team is just somewhat devoid of talent.

If Detroit can iron out it’s bullpen woes, especially if they can acquire someone to stabilize things, they should catch the Indians no problem.  Cleveland is capable of keeping it close, though.  I don’t think Chicago is a serious contender, Kansas City doesn’t have what it will take to win the division and Minnesota severely under-gunned.

My Prediction Grade: A-

Preseason AL West Predictions

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Oakland Athletics

Current AL West Standings

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics (5.0)

Seattle Mariners (6.5)

Los Angeles Angels (7.5)

Let’s face it, the Rangers just may be the best team in baseball.  The big gamble on Yu Darvish appears to have paid off and we already knew they had one of the best in the game with Josh Hamilton.  A strong cast surrounds him and the Rangers have more than enough pitching to stay in front.  Oakland has been surprising, riding strong starting pitching and bullpen performances to a .500 record.  Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone are legit big league pitchers.  The offense is hit or miss (mostly miss) but Cespedes is adjusting fairly well to American ball.  Seattle is incredibly inconsistent.  They’ve struggled to score at times, then will hang an occasional 7 or 8-spot.  King Felix and Jason Vargas are the only reliable starters while youngsters Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Mike Carp and Dustin Ackley are starting to thrive at the plate.  Los Angeles has been a total surprise letdown.  Pujols’ struggles have been well documented, but the rest of the team hasn’t been stunning either.  Many players are off to slow starts and the franchise appears to continues to be plagued by the Vernon Wells trade.  Starting pitching has been a relative strength, but the bullpen is troubled, led by Jordan Walden’s sturggles and both Scot Downs’ and LaTroy Hawkins’ injuries.  They should pick it up, but they’ll have a long ways to go to catch the Rangers.

Texas should run away with this thing.  Unless severe injuries cause trouble, they look like the head of the class.  With their deep farm system, they can sustain trouble and make it through.  I like Los Angeles to pour it on here soon and easily surpass Oakland and Seattle by mid-summer.  The battle for not-last should be a tight one between the A’s and M’s. 

My Prediction Grade: A

NL Grades Reviewed

If you've been with me here for a while, you'll remember the division-by-division season previews that went up about a month and a half ago.  I graded each team's lineup, rotation and bullpen, then predicted their finish in the division.  I thought now would be an appropriate time to go back an review those grades, given that we're over a month into the season.  Working east to west, let's see how things are shaking out.

NL East Pre-Season Prediction

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Washington Nationals

3. Miami Marlins

4. Atlanta Braves

5. New York Mets

NL East Current Standings

1. Washington Nationals

2. Atlanta Braves (1.0)

3. New York Mets (2.5)

4. Philadelphia Phillies (3.0)

5. Miami Marlins (4.5)

As you can tell, this race is still very close.  The Nats have been carried by uncharacteristically good pitching thus far, which I expect will regress some.  Bryce Harper has energized the offense, however, and they should continue to score runs, especially when they get Zimmerman and Morse back.  I'm surprised that Atlanta has done so well, but they're scoring runs right now and the pitching has been pretty good, as expected.  The Mets are a total surprise and I don't see them continuing this pace in the least.  Philadelphia is using their rotation to stay at .500 as the offense has been well below average.  Ryan Howard is inching closer to a return but Utley appears a long ways off still.  I'm not sure they'll be able to catch the Nats if they don't start making up ground in a hurry.  The Marlins are far from out of it, but they've really disappointed.  Heath Bell has struggled (as predicted), Stanton has shown no pop and Hanley is scuffling once again.  Their offense has been terrible thus far, plain and simple.  

I still like the Phils, Nats and Braves to fight it out, but I may have been too generous with the Marlins.  If they don't come around soon, they will have a long summer ahead of them.  Let the Mets' free fall begin in 5, 4, 3, 2…

My Prediction Grade: B-

NL Central Pre-Season Prediction

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Cincinnati Reds

3. Milwaukee Brewers

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

5. Chicago Cubs

6. Houston Astros

NL Central Current Standings

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Cincinnati Reds (3.5)

3. Houston Astros (5.0)

4. Milwaukee Brewers (5.0)

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (5.0)

6. Chicago Cubs (7.0)

The Cards have opened up a decent gap on the rest of the division.  Molina's earning his new deal while Beltran, Freese, Jay, and Furcal help power the offense.  Once Holliday turns on, look out.  The rotation has been solid.  Lance Lynn has been a revelation, Jaime Garcia is solid as ever and Jake Westbrook continues to get it done.  Cincinnati is trying to keep up the pace, but at .500, they'd better pick it up.  Despite Ryan Madson going down before the season, the bullpen has been the bright spot as the rotation is mediocre at best.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and rookie shortstop Zack Cozart are waiting to get some help as Hanigan, Ludwick and Phillips are all off to slow starts.  Houston, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are log-jammed at 11-14.  I'll stick by my pick with Milwaukee eventually emerging, but they've already dug themselves a hole.  The Astros and Pirates are scrappy, though, and won't go down without a fight.  Neither team will make the playoffs, but they'll find comfort in stealing victories from division opponents.  Chicago is struggling, as expected.  The pitching is decent but the offense is really poor.

If the Cardinals stay hot, they could run away with this thing.  The Reds will have a hard time catching them unless the starting pitching gets better in a hurry.  Look for them to potentially make a deal for an additional starter sooner rather than later.  The rest of the pack is falling behind fast.  A big May is needed if they want to stay close.

My Prediction Grade: A-

NL West Pre-Season Prediction

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. San Francisco Giants

3. Colorado Rockies

4. Los Angeles Doders

5. San Diego Padres

NL West Current Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (4.0)

3. Colorado Rockies (4.5)

4. San Francisco Giants (5.0)

5. San Diego Padres (8.5)

Chavez Ravine has been raucous thus far.  The white-hot Dodgers are tied for the best record in all of baseball.  How?  Matt Kemp has a triple-slash of .411/.500/.856 with 12 dingers through 25 games.  Journeyman catcher AJ Ellis is mashing, to everyone's surprise, and Andre Eithier has clearly bounced back in his contract year.  Can they sustain it?  I don't think so since Kemp can't keep this up and he's getting little help outside of Ellis and Eithier.  The pitching is going to fall back to earth eventually, too.  Most of the team's ERA's are deflated when compared to their xFIP's.  The Diamondbacks have been solid and have mitigated injuries to Chris Young and Justin Upton while also surviving a slow start from Jason Kubel.  They're a balanced offense that should continue to score runs, plus they have a deep bench.  The starters are solid and exchanging Josh Collmenter for Patrick Corbin appears to be a good move.  Skaggs and Bauer loom if there are any more issues.  JJ Putz is back on the DL, but Bryan Shaw is filling in adequately with the help of a deep 'pen.  The Rockies and Giants aren't as enticing.  Colorado continues to struggle to pitch while the offense hasn't been all that impressive either, outside of a few performances by CarGo.  The Giants are pitching well, but not as much as expected.  Lincecum's struggles have been well-documented and the offense is trying to iron out a logjam at 1st base.  Aubrey Huff has been terrible while Brett Pill has filled in pretty well.  Of course, Brandon Belt is there, too, so there's much to be desired in terms of fitting the puzzle pieces in the optimal positions.  Pablo Sandoval is out for 8 weeks with a broken hamate bone, so that's another negative for a team that is scoring runs at a below-average rate.  San Diego has a poor offense and worse pitching staff.  They'll be in the cellar all year.

I like the Diamondbacks to catch the Dodgers.  Los Angeles is a statistical nightmare, as all indicators show that they've been extremely luck and their success hinges on one player.  I'll still take the Giants over the Rox in the long run, but that's really anyone's guess.  Pitching wins out in that battle, I suppose.

My Prediction Grade: B

Perfection

Having witnessed perfection this afternoon in Seattle, I have to say that Phillip Humber’s perfect game is still running through my mind.  My work responsibilities have grown temporarily; therefore today’s game was my first live Mariners game of the season.  What a way to start!

Keeping score at games is something I like to do.  I know it’s old school, I know you can get digitized box scores and real-time updates, but keeping score with a pencil and paper just has a special way of keeping the audience engaged in the action.  Through four innings, I realized that Humber wasn’t just tossing a no-hitter, but a perfect game.  A lot of pitchers have thrown four perfect innings in history, so I wasn’t overly anxious.  The odds were still clearly against Humber remaining perfect and I expected reality to set in at any moment.

The one thing that kept me wondering if he could pull it off, though, especially after he finished the sixth, is just how he was doing it.  Humber wasn’t getting lucky, he wasn’t getting crazy called strikes by the umpire and his fielders weren't making incredible plays that were saving his bacon.  Instead, he was dominating.  Looking at the Pitch FX Data over at Brooks Baseball, you can see that he threw 67 of his 95 pitches for strikes (70%).  He was especially deadly with his breaking stuff.  The linear weights (effectiveness) of his slider and curveball were -2.56 and -2.41, respectively.  These are very impressive numbers and went along well with his above-average fastball (-1.87), which averaged 91.5mph but topped out at 94. 

A quick look at the scorecard revealed corresponding results.  There were plenty of swings and misses, especially on the curveball, which batters whiffed on 24% of the time he threw it.  But what is really impressive is just how many times Mariners batters looked baffled and hit weak pop-ups or ground-outs.  Only a handful of balls were stung all day, two to the outfield and one on the infield.  Otherwise, the Mariners went quietly as they failed to get squared-up on Humber's offerings.  Most of these outs came early in the count, too.  This has two culprits: 1) the Mariners aren’t exactly the most patient team in baseball (last in walks) and 2) they knew Humber was pounding the zone so they couldn’t afford to let many pitches go by.  In fact, a large number of the balls he threw were the product of him already being ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2 and attempting to get the batter to strike himself out, which happened nine times today. 

When the seventh began, things started to get serious.  Casual fans and families at the park who were there to enjoy the sunshine began to catch on to what was happening.  By the eighth, fans started to cheer quietly for Humber, against the hometown team.  In the ninth, the crowd roared when Brendan Ryan struck out, much to his chagrin, to end the game and preserve the perfect performance by Phillip Humber.  Everyone had been standing for the past three at-bats and no one left when the game ended but instead applauded the effort of the White Sox hurler.

History is history, and sure it hurts when it comes against your team, but to witness something that spectacular is awesome.  It’s something I’ll surely never forget and neither will Humber.  There have been a lot of baseball games played in MLB history (over 380,000) and only 21 perfect games.  People will ask, “Who’s Phil Humber?”  He may not be a household name, but his stuff was nasty, his approach was aggressive, consistent and Seattle simply had no answer.  A tip of the cap is in order to Mr. Humber.  Well done, sir, and thank you for the experience.

Down Goes Bailey

Not to go all "I told you so" on folks, but who didn't see Andrew Bailey getting hurt from 500 miles away?  In case you haven't heard, the Red Sox' recently acquired closer is out for 4-5 months after having surgery on his injured thumb.  In a division that is so competitive, the Sox really couldn't afford to suffer this kind of blow.  They let Jonathan Paplebon walk in free agency and got Bailey from the A's in a trade.  That decision is looking like a poor one.

Bailey is no stranger to the DL.  After winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2009, he's struggled to stay on the mound with consistency.  He racked up 83 innings in his first season, but pitched just 49 innings in 2010 and only 41 last year.  Andrew's maintained his effectiveness when he's pitched, so its not as if he's a diminished player talent-wise, it's just that he isn't someone who can be counted on to close a season's worth of games.  Unfortunately, he will only be available for about half the season, similar to his performance the last two years.

How do the Red Sox respond?  They made nice move to protect from this sort of thing when they traded for Mark Melancon of the Astros.  He'll help solidify the situation as I expect him to move from the setup role to closer.  Daniel Bard is the key question.  He's transitioned from highly effective setup man to starter.  Boston thought they had an abundance of high-leverage relievers, making it possible to make Bard a starter.  I would suspect that they'll try to keep him there, but if the bullpen should struggle, moving him back to the 'pen is something I can see happening.  This will put extra pressure on Alfredo Aceves, Michael Bowden and Franklin Morales.

How the team and these players adjust to their new roles will have a lot to say about how this division shakes out.  Can Boston really contend with a bullpen that is so suspect in a division with the fire power of the AL East?  The answer is yes, but their margin for error just got much thinner.

AL West Report Card

AL West

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  This particular division is a fantastic example of that saying, given that there has been some change indeed, yet the pecking order is still clearly divided among familiar lines.  Oakland and Seattle will be looking up at Los Angeles and Texas from the bottom of the standings once again.  Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, Jesus Montero and Yoenis Cespedes prove that while the standings may not move around too much, there’s plenty to get excited about out west.

Los Angeles Angels

Lineup: B+

Rotation: A

Bullpen: B

Notes: This lineup got a lot sexier when Mr. Pujols came to town.  It’s not often that the best player in the game is a free agent, but the Angels paid dearly to land him.  A few talented hitters in Kendrick, Morales (finally appears healthy), Aybar and Torii Hunter surround Albert.  Wells and Callaspo are less interesting pieces while the team tries to trade Bobby Abreu and find somewhere to play Mark Trumbo.  A question to ponder: when will we see Mike Trout?  The rotation may be the best in baseball, posting a four-headed monster in Jered Weaver, Danny Haren, Ervin Santana and CJ Wilson.  The 5^th spot is still up in the air, but won’t matter much.  Jordan Walden begins his sophomore campaign as the closer and will get help from a string of veterans in Downs, Hawkins and Isringhausen.  That squad should be effective if healthy, but their age/durability concerns me a little bit.

Oakland Athletics

Lineup: C-

Rotation: C+

Bullpen: B

Notes: The A’s are what they are: a cobbled together group of veterans (Crisp, Pennington, Suzuki), replacement-level players with potential to be better (Smith, Reddick), and prospects getting their feet wet (Weeks, Allen, Sogard).  The only player who doesn’t fit these categories is the team’s lone big offseason purchase: Yoenis Cespedes.  He’s had a good spring and nice opening series against the Mariners in Japan, so things are looking up in that regard.  No matter what, this team will struggle to score all season long, no doubt about it.  On the mound, the rotation is functional but completely unimpressive.  The results may not be terrible, but no one is going to be excited to see McCarthy, Colon, Ross Milone and Braden take the hill.  Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock are a different story, so we’ll be waiting to see these youngsters get their feet we when they get called up.  I see the bullpen as an underrated group.  Balfour, Fuentes and Blevins are strong vets while De Los Santos, Carigan and Cook are youngsters with high upside.

Seattle Mariners

Lineup: C-

Rotation: C+

Bullpen: C

Notes: My hometown M’s are going to stink it up on offense again this year.  Only Ackley, Suzuki and Montero are worth watching at this point.  Smoak, Seager, Carp and Saunders offer hope, but little in terms of proven production.  The sooner Chone Figgins is out of the equation, the better off the team will be.  Expect this group to be painful to watch at times.  Felix Hernandez isn’t getting much help.  Vargas is hit-and-miss, while Noesi, Beavan and Millwood are all replacement-level innings-eaters.  Keep an eye on Erasmo Ramirez, as he could be moved to the rotation if anyone struggles.  Don’t be shocked to see James Paxton and possibly Danny Hultzen get a cup of coffee come September.  The bullpen is average at best.  League gets the ninth inning duties while Shawn Kelley and Tom Wilhelmsen will try to stabilize the 7^th and 8^th.  It’s going to be a long season in the Pacific Northwest... again. 

Texas Rangers

Lineup: A

Rotation: B+

Bullpen: A-

Notes: This team will mash, plain and simple.  Kinsler and Andrus at the top of the order will set the table for Hamilton, Beltre, Young, Cruz and Napoli.  That sounds like a fantasy team, not a real one!  Add to the fact that they play in an extreme hitter’s park in Arlington and you have a recipe for success.  The only concern could be health, as Hamilton, Kinsler, Beltre, Young and Napoli have never been strangers to the DL.  While it isn’t as sexy a rotation as the Angles’, Texas has a nice crop of starters.  Lewis, Holland and Harrison are all proven big leaguers capable of getting the job done well.  Yu Darvish has looked good since arriving from Japan and could be a star while former closer Neftali Feliz has transitioned to the rotation.  The bullpen is very solid.  Joe Nathan takes over the 9^th and, if he can stay healthy, should adequately replace Feliz.  Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara are excellent options at the back end, too.

Predicted Finish

1.     Texas Rangers

2.     Los Angeles Angels

3.     Seattle Mariners

4.     Oakland Athletics

This division should really be divided into two distinct races: the one for the top and the one for avoiding the bottom.  I like the Rangers to slightly edge the Angels.  Texas is a little more talented top-to-bottom, plus I think they have the better bullpen and I see these two playing a lot of close games against one another.  Health could have a lot to say about how this shakes out, as neither team can afford to see a star player miss a big chunk of the season and expect to stay on top.  Don’t count the Angels out by any means, I’m just betting on the Rangers.  In a total stinkfest, I have the Mariners taking third over the A’s by the slimmest of margins.  Why?  I don’t know, I suppose I don’t want to watch them finish last again. If anything, I think Seattle has a little more talent in terms of prospects and that could be the difference.