Saturday, April 21, 2012

Perfection


Having witnessed perfection this afternoon in Seattle, I have to say that Phillip Humber’s perfect game is still running through my mind.  My work responsibilities have grown temporarily; therefore today’s game was my first live Mariners game of the season.  What a way to start!

Keeping score at games is something I like to do.  I know it’s old school, I know you can get digitized box scores and real-time updates, but keeping score with a pencil and paper just has a special way of keeping the audience engaged in the action.  Through four innings, I realized that Humber wasn’t just tossing a no-hitter, but a perfect game.  A lot of pitchers have thrown four perfect innings in history, so I wasn’t overly anxious.  The odds were still clearly against Humber remaining perfect and I expected reality to set in at any moment.

The one thing that kept me wondering if he could pull it off, though, especially after he finished the sixth, is just how he was doing it.  Humber wasn’t getting lucky, he wasn’t getting crazy called strikes by the umpire and his fielders weren't making incredible plays that were saving his bacon.  Instead, he was dominating.  Looking at the Pitch FX Data over at Brooks Baseball, you can see that he threw 67 of his 95 pitches for strikes (70%).  He was especially deadly with his breaking stuff.  The linear weights (effectiveness) of his slider and curveball were -2.56 and -2.41, respectively.  These are very impressive numbers and went along well with his above-average fastball (-1.87), which averaged 91.5mph but topped out at 94. 

A quick look at the scorecard revealed corresponding results.  There were plenty of swings and misses, especially on the curveball, which batters whiffed on 24% of the time he threw it.  But what is really impressive is just how many times Mariners batters looked baffled and hit weak pop-ups or ground-outs.  Only a handful of balls were stung all day, two to the outfield and one on the infield.  Otherwise, the Mariners went quietly as they failed to get squared-up on Humber's offerings.  Most of these outs came early in the count, too.  This has two culprits: 1) the Mariners aren’t exactly the most patient team in baseball (last in walks) and 2) they knew Humber was pounding the zone so they couldn’t afford to let many pitches go by.  In fact, a large number of the balls he threw were the product of him already being ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2 and attempting to get the batter to strike himself out, which happened nine times today. 

When the seventh began, things started to get serious.  Casual fans and families at the park who were there to enjoy the sunshine began to catch on to what was happening.  By the eighth, fans started to cheer quietly for Humber, against the hometown team.  In the ninth, the crowd roared when Brendan Ryan struck out, much to his chagrin, to end the game and preserve the perfect performance by Phillip Humber.  Everyone had been standing for the past three at-bats and no one left when the game ended but instead applauded the effort of the White Sox hurler.

History is history, and sure it hurts when it comes against your team, but to witness something that spectacular is awesome.  It’s something I’ll surely never forget and neither will Humber.  There have been a lot of baseball games played in MLB history (over 380,000) and only 21 perfect games.  People will ask, “Who’s Phil Humber?”  He may not be a household name, but his stuff was nasty, his approach was aggressive, consistent and Seattle simply had no answer.  A tip of the cap is in order to Mr. Humber.  Well done, sir, and thank you for the experience.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Down Goes Bailey

Not to go all "I told you so" on folks, but who didn't see Andrew Bailey getting hurt from 500 miles away?  In case you haven't heard, the Red Sox' recently acquired closer is out for 4-5 months after having surgery on his injured thumb.  In a division that is so competitive, the Sox really couldn't afford to suffer this kind of blow.  They let Jonathan Paplebon walk in free agency and got Bailey from the A's in a trade.  That decision is looking like a poor one.

Bailey is no stranger to the DL.  After winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2009, he's struggled to stay on the mound with consistency.  He racked up 83 innings in his first season, but pitched just 49 innings in 2010 and only 41 last year.  Andrew's maintained his effectiveness when he's pitched, so its not as if he's a diminished player talent-wise, it's just that he isn't someone who can be counted on to close a season's worth of games.  Unfortunately, he will only be available for about half the season, similar to his performance the last two years.

How do the Red Sox respond?  They made nice move to protect from this sort of thing when they traded for Mark Melancon of the Astros.  He'll help solidify the situation as I expect him to move from the setup role to closer.  Daniel Bard is the key question.  He's transitioned from highly effective setup man to starter.  Boston thought they had an abundance of high-leverage relievers, making it possible to make Bard a starter.  I would suspect that they'll try to keep him there, but if the bullpen should struggle, moving him back to the 'pen is something I can see happening.  This will put extra pressure on Alfredo Aceves, Michael Bowden and Franklin Morales.

How the team and these players adjust to their new roles will have a lot to say about how this division shakes out.  Can Boston really contend with a bullpen that is so suspect in a division with the fire power of the AL East?  The answer is yes, but their margin for error just got much thinner.

AL West Report Card


AL West

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  This particular division is a fantastic example of that saying, given that there has been some change indeed, yet the pecking order is still clearly divided among familiar lines.  Oakland and Seattle will be looking up at Los Angeles and Texas from the bottom of the standings once again.  Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, Jesus Montero and Yoenis Cespedes prove that while the standings may not move around too much, there’s plenty to get excited about out west.

Los Angeles Angels
Lineup: B+
Rotation: A
Bullpen: B
Notes: This lineup got a lot sexier when Mr. Pujols came to town.  It’s not often that the best player in the game is a free agent, but the Angels paid dearly to land him.  A few talented hitters in Kendrick, Morales (finally appears healthy), Aybar and Torii Hunter surround Albert.  Wells and Callaspo are less interesting pieces while the team tries to trade Bobby Abreu and find somewhere to play Mark Trumbo.  A question to ponder: when will we see Mike Trout?  The rotation may be the best in baseball, posting a four-headed monster in Jered Weaver, Danny Haren, Ervin Santana and CJ Wilson.  The 5th spot is still up in the air, but won’t matter much.  Jordan Walden begins his sophomore campaign as the closer and will get help from a string of veterans in Downs, Hawkins and Isringhausen.  That squad should be effective if healthy, but their age/durability concerns me a little bit.

Oakland Athletics
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C+
Bullpen: B
Notes: The A’s are what they are: a cobbled together group of veterans (Crisp, Pennington, Suzuki), replacement-level players with potential to be better (Smith, Reddick), and prospects getting their feet wet (Weeks, Allen, Sogard).  The only player who doesn’t fit these categories is the team’s lone big offseason purchase: Yoenis Cespedes.  He’s had a good spring and nice opening series against the Mariners in Japan, so things are looking up in that regard.  No matter what, this team will struggle to score all season long, no doubt about it.  On the mound, the rotation is functional but completely unimpressive.  The results may not be terrible, but no one is going to be excited to see McCarthy, Colon, Ross Milone and Braden take the hill.  Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock are a different story, so we’ll be waiting to see these youngsters get their feet we when they get called up.  I see the bullpen as an underrated group.  Balfour, Fuentes and Blevins are strong vets while De Los Santos, Carigan and Cook are youngsters with high upside.

Seattle Mariners
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C+
Bullpen: C
Notes: My hometown M’s are going to stink it up on offense again this year.  Only Ackley, Suzuki and Montero are worth watching at this point.  Smoak, Seager, Carp and Saunders offer hope, but little in terms of proven production.  The sooner Chone Figgins is out of the equation, the better off the team will be.  Expect this group to be painful to watch at times.  Felix Hernandez isn’t getting much help.  Vargas is hit-and-miss, while Noesi, Beavan and Millwood are all replacement-level innings-eaters.  Keep an eye on Erasmo Ramirez, as he could be moved to the rotation if anyone struggles.  Don’t be shocked to see James Paxton and possibly Danny Hultzen get a cup of coffee come September.  The bullpen is average at best.  League gets the ninth inning duties while Shawn Kelley and Tom Wilhelmsen will try to stabilize the 7th and 8th.  It’s going to be a long season in the Pacific Northwest... again. 

Texas Rangers
Lineup: A
Rotation: B+
Bullpen: A-
Notes: This team will mash, plain and simple.  Kinsler and Andrus at the top of the order will set the table for Hamilton, Beltre, Young, Cruz and Napoli.  That sounds like a fantasy team, not a real one!  Add to the fact that they play in an extreme hitter’s park in Arlington and you have a recipe for success.  The only concern could be health, as Hamilton, Kinsler, Beltre, Young and Napoli have never been strangers to the DL.  While it isn’t as sexy a rotation as the Angles’, Texas has a nice crop of starters.  Lewis, Holland and Harrison are all proven big leaguers capable of getting the job done well.  Yu Darvish has looked good since arriving from Japan and could be a star while former closer Neftali Feliz has transitioned to the rotation.  The bullpen is very solid.  Joe Nathan takes over the 9th and, if he can stay healthy, should adequately replace Feliz.  Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara are excellent options at the back end, too.

Predicted Finish

1.     Texas Rangers
2.     Los Angeles Angels
3.     Seattle Mariners
4.     Oakland Athletics

This division should really be divided into two distinct races: the one for the top and the one for avoiding the bottom.  I like the Rangers to slightly edge the Angels.  Texas is a little more talented top-to-bottom, plus I think they have the better bullpen and I see these two playing a lot of close games against one another.  Health could have a lot to say about how this shakes out, as neither team can afford to see a star player miss a big chunk of the season and expect to stay on top.  Don’t count the Angels out by any means, I’m just betting on the Rangers.  In a total stinkfest, I have the Mariners taking third over the A’s by the slimmest of margins.  Why?  I don’t know, I suppose I don’t want to watch them finish last again. If anything, I think Seattle has a little more talent in terms of prospects and that could be the difference. 


Sunday, April 1, 2012

AL Central Report Card

AL CENTRAL

Things have certainly changed in this division. The once powerful White Sox and Twins appear to be rebuilding, the Indians and Royals are vastly improved while the Tigers have gotten even tougher. Don’t base your expectations on what you used to know about the AL Central, as this is a new animal.

Chicago White Sox
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C
Bullpen: B+
Notes: This lineup only boasts one proven, above-average hitter, that being an aging Paul Konerko. AJ Pierzynski, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn aren’t what they used to be by any means, although they have the potential to channel their former selves. De Aza will leadoff, which could be interesting, but there’s little else to get excited about at the plate. Danks and Floyd are good starters, but Peavy can’t stay healthy to save his life, Humber is up and down and Chris Sale has limited experience (but at least he offers upside). The bullpen could be strong with three quality arms at the back end. Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain and Addison Reed are very nice. Ohman and Bruney are quality veterans to go along with prospects Santiago and Axelrod.

Cleveland Indians
Lineup: B+
Rotation: C+
Bullpen: B
Notes: The Indians boast a solid lineup. While only Carlos Santana can be described as stellar, Cabrera and Choo are excellent, Hafner and Kotchman are solid while Kipnis and Brantley will surprise people. They should score a lot of runs this season as they have no “automatic outs.” The rotation is interesting. Masterson is solid, but there are some question marks behind him. Ubaldo Jimenez needs to get back to form, as does Derek Lowe. Josh Tomlin is effective while Jeanmar Gomez is an unproven youngster. The bullpen should be solid, despite a lingering injury to Chris Perez. Vinnie Pestano was quietly awesome in 2011, while Tony Sipp and Joe Smith are very reliable. Veteran Dan Wheeler adds to the quality depth. 

Detroit Tigers
Lineup: A
Rotation: A
Bullpen: B+
Notes: Wow, if this were a real report card, the Tigers would be an honor student. Even without Victor Martinez, the Tigers lineup will be outstanding. Jackson and Boesch will thrive in front of Cabrera and Fielder. Delmon Young, Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta will continue to drive runners in. Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and Porcello make up an awesome 1-4, while high-ranking prospect Andrew Oliver should win the 5th starter job. The bullpen is good, too. Despite Valverde being overrated, Benoit, Dotel and Coke are all very good. This team can do it all.

Kansas City Royals
Lineup: C+
Rotation: C+
Bullpen: C
Notes: The Royals’ lineup is a risk/reward bunch. Alex Gordon is coming off his first truly good season, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas look promising but don’t have a big body of work yet and Jeff Francouer needs to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. We know Billy Butler can hit and that Alcides Escobar can’t, but there isn’t much else to bank on. If all goes well, they can score a lot of runs. If it doesn’t, they will be in big trouble. Hochevar, Sanchez and Paulino are good starters, Bruce Chen is surprisingly solid and Danny Duffy is your typical 5th starter. Losing Joakim Soria for the year with Tommy John surgery hurts the bullpen. Jonathon Broxton will get the first crack at closing games, but if anything goes awry, look for talented youngster Greg Holland to get a chance. Effective righty Aaron Crow appears to be moving back to the bullpen after an experiment to get him in the rotation.

Minnesota Twins
Lineup: C-
Rotation: C
Bullpen: C
Notes: What was once a perennial contender, the Twins are a shell of their former selves. The fact that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can’t stay on the field has a lot to do with it. Denard Span seems to have stalled out in his development while Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel walked in free agency. Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit will try to replace them. Ben Revere and Danny Valencia need to progress as hitters to help this team be successful. Carl Pavano is a terrible “ace” and Francisco Liriano seems to have lost “it.” Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis are all fill-the-rotation types that are serviceable but uninspiring. Matt Capps is a marginal closer and is probably the second best reliever on the staff, behind setup man Glen Perkins. Burnett, Duensing and Swarzak fill the ‘pen out. 

Prediction
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox

No other team has the top-to-bottom talent to beat a relatively healthy Detroit ball club, so I see this as a clear race for second place. The Indians should score enough runs to get the job done. Kansas City is an intriguing team. They could be surprising in 2012 if the youngsters pan out and the pitching holds up, especially the bullpen. If the Tigers stumble, these teams, the Indians and Royals, have the ability to catch them. Minnesota is a mess, they can’t stay healthy and they are mostly a squad of average players (outside of a healthy Joe Mauer, a healthy Justin Morneau and an effective Francisco Liriano). The White Sox are in full-on rebuilding mode, so don’t be surprised to see them try to deal who they can at the deadline for prospects. The problem, most other teams don’t want their broken down, overpriced parts. That situation is in total disarray.